GERMANY LOOKS EASTWARD: CHANCELLOR MERKEL'S TRIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 001612 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH JA GM SUBJECT: GERMANY LOOKS EASTWARD: CHANCELLOR MERKEL'S TRIP TO CHINA, JAPAN Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. John M. Koenig for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Chancellor Merkel will visit China and Japan August 26 ) September 1, in her longest trip abroad since taking office. The trip will be largely devoted to G8 issues raised at the summit in June, the so-called 'Heiligendamm process,' and climate change. Her visit to China will highlight the 35th anniversary of Sino-German diplomatic relations and will launch a four-year bilateral cultural/business program. The trip to Beijing follows a series of recent difficulties in German-Chinese relations; Merkel likely will raise difficult issues such as human rights privately but probably not in her public remarks. Merkel's trip follows on the heels of a visit to China by the chairman of the opposition Free Democratic Party, who gained high-level access (including a meeting with the Chinese Foreign Minister) and who is seen by some as a prospective Foreign Minister, should a different coalition take power after the 2009 elections. ¶2. (C) In Tokyo, Merkel will focus on continuity with the G8 agenda when Japan takes over the G-8 presidency at the end of this year, and will also touch on UN Security Council reform. In Kyoto, Merkel will deliver a major policy speech on climate change and regional security. The Chancellor will be accompanied to both countries by an economic delegation that will include CEOs of BASF, Siemens, and others. This will be Merkel's first trip to Japan as Chancellor, but her third meeting with Prime Minister Abe this year. End summary. -------------- -------------- MERKEL IN CHINA: POSITIVE FOCUS FOLLOWING RECENT TENSIONS -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Thomas Gerberich, MFA Deputy Office Director for East Asia, Merkel's visit to China will include a variety of cultural events and economic-related meetings. She will meet with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, President Hu Jintao, and Chairman of the National People's Congress, Wu Bangguo. On August 29, she will take part in a joint signing ceremony with PM Jabao on a food security agreement. That same evening, she will participate in an event commemorating the 35th anniversary of Germany's diplomatic relations with China and will launch a four-year program featuring cultural, economic, and business cooperation between the two countries. "Germany and China: Together on the Move" is modeled on similar programs Germany has previously launched with Japan and Poland, and will include exhibitions highlighting the bilateral relationship. ¶4. (C) Although Merkel's visit is intended to highlight the strong partnership between Germany and China, she is expected to raise a range of concerns that will be familiar to the Chinese - human rights, climate change, intellectual property rights, and China's role in Sudan and Iran, among others. As in the past, Merkel will raise human rights abuses, delivering a list of 26 cases on which Germany is seeking clarification from China. Although the GoC typically responds to this request with what MFA officials characterize as an "unsatisfactory and incomplete response", Gerberich noted that the fact that China has provided any formal response in recent years is a positive sign compared to earlier years, when Germany's request yielded no response at all. ¶5. (C) On the part of the Chinese, Gerberich said they most likely view such bilateral talks as a chance to be seen as a major international player that is taken seriously by world leaders. He commented that the Chinese see themselves as "a superpower on par with the U.S.", and view the EU as ranking slightly below the U.S. as an international partner. Gerberich also guessed that the Chinese will no doubt use the meetings with Merkel to raise both Taiwan and the EU arms embargo. With regard to the former issue, Gerberich made clear that Germany wants no escalation in cross-strait relations and pointed out that the EU recently sent a demarche to Taipei to refrain from further provocative acts. Taiwan was also a topic of discussion between the Chinese Ambassador and MFA State Secretary Boomgaarden at the end of July. According to Gerberich, the Chinese "escalated" their level of engagement on this issue in two phone calls by the Chinese FM to FM Steinmeier. China also delayed a visit by the advance team for Merkel,s trip several times, an "unnecessary provocation" that caused logistical problems. As to the arms embargo, the issue is not on Merkel's agenda, nor will it resurface until China has made significant BERLIN 00001612 002 OF 003 progress on human rights, MFA sources say. Both governing CDU/CSU and SPD parties are firmly opposed to lifting the embargo. ¶6. (C) MFA State Secretary Reinhard Silberberg, who will accompany Merkel to China, echoed these concerns during an August 23 meeting with CODEL Shelby (septel). He said Germany remains concerned about recent dramatic increases in China's defense/military spending. In addition, Silberberg said, Merkel plans to raise "economic openness" -- a reference to IPR and Chinese restrictions on foreign investment. (NOTE: Silberberg said the German Government is interested in promoting foreign investment in Germany, but does not want state-owned foreign invetors taking over crucial German technology compaies. Silberberg noted the Cabinet would discuss"possible solutions" at its August 23-24 retreat) German Government officials also continue to xpress concern about Chinese investment/assistance to Africa. Germany would like to see China and ad donors promote the idea of partnership with ai recipients to promote transparency, accountabilty and openness to foreign direct investment. ¶7. (C) Merkel's visit to China follows on the heels of an eleven-day visit by the FDP party chairman, Guido Westerwelle, to Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an, and Hong Kong. From a domestic political standpoint, Westerwelle likely seeks to establish himself as a credible potential foreign minister, should the FDP come to power as part of a coalition government after the 2009 elections. The FDP and China have had rocky relations in the past. After the FDP organized a conference on Tibet in Bonn in 1996, to which the Dalai Lama was invited, the Chinese expelled the FDP-affiliated Friedrich Naumann Foundation from its offices in Beijing. The Foundation has not been permitted to operate from there since. Westerwelle's visit to China is part of the FDP's effort to resume activity in Beijing. MFA contacts expressed surprise at the "level and ease of access" that the Chinese accorded Westerwelle on this visit. -------------- A SYMBOLIC RETURN TO KYOTO -------------- ¶8. (C) From Nanjing, China, Merkel will travel to Tokyo. In this, her first trip to Japan as Chancellor, Merkel will focus on showing Japan that it is still Germany's most important partner in the region. In Tokyo, Merkel will meet Prime Minister Abe and Emperor Akihito. This will be Merkel's third meeting with PM Abe, and MFA contacts expect it to be "the most substantial" of the three. (Note: Their first two meetings, a bilateral visit as part of Abe's swing through Europe earlier in 2007 and the G8 Summit in June, were viewed by both the Chancellery and MFA as a 'warming up period' during which they were 'getting to know each other'). Merkel is expected to focus her talks on the transition of the G8 presidency at the end of this year, which both sides anticipate to be a smooth one. According to Stefanie Seedig, the German MFA's desk officer for Japan, Merkel is particularly interested in continuity of the so-called 'Heiligendamm process', which focuses on maintaining a dialogue between the G8 countries and five key emerging economies (China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico). Seedig said that Africa, energy security, North Korea, and UNSC reform are also likely to come up in bilateral talks. ¶9. (C) After her meetings in Tokyo, Merkel will depart for Kyoto, where she will deliver what she reportedly considers her most important speech of the trip * a major policy speech on climate change and regional security. The Japanese DCM told us this would be the highlight of Merkel's visit to Japan. Merkel's last visit to Kyoto was in her capacity as the Environment Minister, to sign the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. MFA contacts say that her return to Kyoto to deliver this policy speech is "highly symbolic" for Merkel. On the subject of climate change, Seedig said that Japan and Germany are more or less on the same page, although they "differ somewhat on the issue of quantitative measures", with the Japanese favoring more relaxed quantitative benchmarks in order to get India and China on board with global climate change initiatives. ¶10. (C) On reforms to the UN Security Council, Seedig said that this is a subject of "ongoing discussion" between Japan and Germany. She noted that there are some differences between the two countries on the issue of interim models, with the Germans favoring some kind of interim model to reform and the Japanese pushing instead for a direct path to reform. Japanese DCM Morimoto confirmed these points. BERLIN 00001612 003 OF 003 -------------- LOOKING EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF 2007 -------------- ¶11. (C) Merkel's visit to both China and Japan signals that German foreign policy will focus on Asia for the second half of 2007. Chancellor Merkel will also travel to India, Malaysia, and Singapore at the end of October. That trip will be preceded by a major conference on Asia organized by Merkel's CDU party, at which she will deliver the keynote address. The MFA's annual conference of German ambassadors also will focus on Asia. We expect the Chancellor to emphasize her climate change agenda in all of these contacts and events, as well as broader economic and foreign policy aims. KOENIG