BELIZE: PREPARING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000614 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - ROIS BEAL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BH SUBJECT: BELIZE: PREPARING FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS REF: BELMOPAN 0287 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Belize will call national elections between January and March 2008. Belize's two major political parties have swapped power peacefully since acquiring independence in 1981. In the upcoming elections, the House of Representatives will expand from 29 to 31 seats. Despite efforts in recent post elections, third party movements have yet to win any seats. Observers predict recent scandals may result in a runaway opposition victory. However, the opposition seems less organized, appears to be worse off financially, and lacks a coherent message for change. End Summary. -------------- The Parties -------------- ¶2. (U) Belize's two major political parties are the People's United Party (PUP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP). Third party movements have periodically formed but have generally been disorganized and have yet to win any seats in parliament. The election is required to be held prior to March 5, 2008, and the Prime Minister recently announced that the elections will not take place before Christmas. -------------- Political Background -------------- ¶3. (U) The Belize Government is controlled by the PUP, which has held power for two consecutive 5-year terms since 1998. The PUP currently holds 21 of the 29 seats in the House of Representatives, while the UDP holds the other eight seats. Belize has a history of peaceful exchange of power since independence in 1981 with the UDP controlling the government from 1993-98 and from 1984-89. Aside from the two UDP terms, the PUP has dominated the electoral scene for more than 30 years and was the party that primarily agitated for independence. ¶4. (U) In the upcoming elections, the House of Representatives will expand from 29 to 31 seats. This will accommodate the growing population while maintaining the size of the constituencies which average approximately three to five thousand voters. The Belizean electorate is historically very active with nearly 80% registered voter turnout. ¶5. (U) Traditionally, the party in power holds some advantage as they are able to deliver a flurry of governmental services just before calling for elections. This election is no exception as there has been a recent spurt of new public spending on free school textbooks, mortgage subsidies, forgiveness of student loans, infrastructure development and promises of a universal health initiative. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The public seems fed up with numerous financial scandals and believe that there has been a substantial increase in the level of corruption over the past several years. Many observers predict that recent scandals will result in a runaway opposition victory. However, post interviews with UDP candidates have yet to inspire confidence, and the leader of the opposition told the Ambassador that he expects a very close, hard-fought race (reftel). The UDP seems less organized and appears to be worse off financially than the PUP. The PUP is relying on organization, financial advantage, and the ability to control government services. The PUP is campaigning on the theme that the UDP is not competent to run a national government. The UDP is running a purely anti-government, anti-corruption campaign. Although the UDP has announced several proposed reforms, it has not campaigned vigorously on a reform platform hoping, it seems, to win by default. DIETER