SERBIAN ELECTIONS: SRS, DS TAKE TOP SPOTS

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000084

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS: SRS, DS TAKE TOP SPOTS


1. (u) SUMMARY: Initial results from the Republic Election
Commission (RIK) indicate that the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) again
took the top spot in parliamentary elections, with Boris Tadic's
Democratic Party (DS) coming in second. ODIHR will likely announce
the elections to have been generally free and fair, with some
localized irregularities. SEPTEL will address coalition
possibilities and policy impacts. End summary.


2. (u) EMBASSY observers and OSCE observers spent a full day
monitoring Serbian parliamentary elections January 21. By Monday,
January 22, the RIK had initial estimates for percentages by party
(these estimates track closely with the initial numbers announced by
voting assistance NGO CeSID late Sunday night). The results
announced were:

Turnout: 60.4 percent, or just over 4 million voters.

Results (126 seats needed to form a government):

Serbian Radical Party (SRS, Tomislav Nikolic): 28.3 percent, 81
seats

Democratic Party (DS, Boris Tadic): 22.7 percent, 65 seats

Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS, Vojislav Kostunica): 16.4 percent,
47 seats

G17 Plus (Mladjan Dinkic): 6.8 percent, 19 seats

Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS, Ivica Dacic): 5.6 percent, 15 seats

Coalition of parties led by Liberal Democratic Party (LDP, Cedomir
Jovanovic): 5.3 percent, 15 seats

Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM, a minority party): 3 seats

Coalition of Lists for Sandzak (LZV, Sulejman Ugljanin, a minority
party): 1 seat

Two Roma parties won one seat each.


3. (u) Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) did not
cross the threshold. A second Hungarian party and the Coalition of
Albanians of the Presevo Valley are on the cusp of crossing the
"natural threshold" to gain one seat each in the parliament. These
two vote counts, though, will be extremely tight, so no one is
willing to proclaim for these two minority parties until every vote
is counted and the election is certified official by RIK on
Thursday, January 25.


4. (u) ODIHR will announce its initial findings in a press
conference at 1300 local time January 22. Based on our own
bilateral observation mission and our communication with long-term
observers in the field on election day, we expect they will proclaim
the elections to have been generally free and fair, with some
localized instances of irregularities - probably targeting the
Sandzak, where OSCE received reports of some systematic
irregularities in the town of Sijenica (although the supposedly
aggrieved parties, the opposition DS and Rasim Ljajic's SDP, told us
they did not see any egregious irregularities in the region).


5. (u) SEPTEL will address timelines, policy ramifications, and
likely coalition scenarios for the new government.

POLT