IS THE EU TIRING OF SERBIA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000716

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/17
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD EU SR
SUBJECT: IS THE EU TIRING OF SERBIA?


Classified by Ambassador Michael Polt, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (c) Summary: Despite a constant stream of pro-Serbian rhetoric
from both European capitals and the EU itself, from the Belgrade
perspective some in the machinery of the EU seem to feel Europe is
getting tired of handholding its perennial "problem child." The view
from the EU bureaucracy in Belgrade is increasingly that Europe is
willing to continue to move forward on things that are easy to
accomplish - minor adjustments to visa regimes and restarting SAA
talks - but is losing its willingness to drag Serbia into the EU
absent indications that Serbia truly wants to join and is willing to
do the work necessary to get there. In the meantime, a Serbia
surrounded by EU members and serious aspirants may be increasingly
bypassed as businesses find ways to work around what is becoming a
European anachronism. End summary.


2. (c) Following the formation of the "Spring Coalition" government
in Serbia on May 15, EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn visited
Belgrade May 16 to engage with President Tadic and PM Kostunica.
Press coverage of Rehn's remarks, and concurrent reactions from
European capitals on the formation of the government painted a
picture in local media of an EU eager to re-engage with Serbia on
integration. The announcement of the conclusion of a relatively
minor visa facilitation agreement added to the public feel-good mood
following Rehn's visit (despite the German ambassador's private
dismissal of the agreement as "window dressing").


3. (c) Local EU rep Peter Sorensen briefed emboffs on the results
of Rehn's visit on May 17, but his assessment painted relations
between the EU and Serbia in much more muted shades. Sorensen
confirmed that in his meetings with both Tadic and Kostunica, Rehn
had reiterated his three conditions for restarting SAA talks:
formation of a new, democratic government; a declaration by that
government of its commitment to fully cooperate with the ICTY; and
concrete action to do so. The first two, he said, could be
considered done - Tadic called for Mladic's arrest on May 16, and
Kostunica reiterated ICTY cooperation as a plank in his governmental
platform on May 15. Concrete action by the government, though, is
not yet in evidence, and has not been since Kostunica unveiled his
now largely discredited "action plan" in summer, 2006.


4. (c) Nevertheless, Sorensen said Rehn has been very forward
leaning in meetings throughout Europe about wanting to get SAA talks
restarted. He added that Rehn is also eager to pry control of who
defines cooperation away from chief ICTY prosecutor Carla del Ponte
and back in the EU's hands. Sorensen said the "concrete action"
requirement is more of a fig leaf to cover Rehn's previous
statements, and that Rehn will likely look for a way to broadly
interpret anything (e.g., the creation of the Serbian NSC) as
concrete action and thus pave the way to restart SAA talks. Rehn's
view, he said, is that restarting talks is a no-cost way to bolster
the new government and encourage additional steps - postponement has
had as much effect as it is going to.


5. (c) Getting eventually to SAA signature, though, will be
extremely hard without real movement on PIFWCs, Sorensen predicted.
It will require a consensus among EU members to put Serbia back on an
accession track. Despite the positive statements from European
capitals in recent days, the Rehn visit, and the conclusion of the
visa facilitation agreement, Sorensen said the EU is simply losing
patience with, and interest in, dealing with Serbia. He noted that
Rehn had come to Belgrade without any serious preparation - he had
not even been briefed on the new government's platform, and thus had
little to engage on except to deliver his points on restarting SAA -
the visit seemed somewhat pro-forma.


6. (c) Sorensen noted that the EU bureaucracy is increasingly
focusing on other, more institutional issues. Now that a new
Constitution may be in the works, he says the EU bureaucracy is "90%"
focused on that - mostly for parochial reasons, because it impacts
jobs for EU bureaucrats. In this environment, he said the EU doesn't
have time or energy to devote to coaxing Serbia into the fold. Even
absent bureaucratic disinterest, there are still many in Europe who
question Serbia's credentials on European values, he said, largely
because of outstanding war crimes issues. Serbia's turn as head of
the CoE raised a brief but spirited opposition from among European
human rights groups that noted Serbia's failure to come to terms with
the PIFWC issue.


7. (c) In such an environment, Sorensen said the mood of many in
the EU machinery toward Serbia is one of exasperation - the
institution is tiring of trying to drag Serbia kicking and screaming
into Europe. The election of a Radical Party leader to be Speaker of
the Serbian parliament with the full cooperation of the Prime
Minister's putatively democratic-oriented party provided a further
disincentive to many in the EU for working to bring Serbia closer to
Europe. Sorensen said Kostunica is routinely criticized as
anti-democratic in internal EU reporting now, further dampening
enthusiasm to integrate Serbia into the EU in the foreseeable future.



8. (c) Sorensen said increasingly the impression is that the EU is
washing its hands of Serbia somewhat - having finally come to terms

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with the fact that Serbia is just too difficult, they've decided to
find work-arounds. His most telling example of Europe's willingness
to leave Serbia to its fate was the astounding change in cargo
transit routes through the Balkans in the year since Romania and
Bulgaria joined the EU. He said people in the Serbian transport
sector tell him long-haul transit traffic is already down a whopping
36-40 percent from last year - mostly because truckers are now going
through Romania and Bulgaria, which even with worse roads shaves 4
days off transit times (and toll and transit charges) compared to
going through Serbia because of fewer border and paperwork delays.
Sorensen noted that in 1-2 years, there will be passably good
North-South highway networks flanking Serbia on either side, making
the primary "corridor 10" route through Serbia far less relevant in
the greater European scheme of things. Bottom line, he said, it
shows Europe is finding a way to live without Serbia.


9. (c) Comment: This is only one conversation with one EU
bureaucrat - though one who has been working the Serbia beat for some
time and has a good sense of the mood in the bureaucracy. It appears
as though Europe is still willing to do what is easy to remain on
friendly terms with Serbia, and to profess a willingness to integrate
Serbia into the EU. But with so many bigger issues on the EU's
plate, with some in Europe opposing expansion on institutional
grounds or opposing Serbia on moral grounds, and with the business
community finding workable alternatives to Balkan economic
integration, Serbia risks falling farther behind the rest of Europe
as it holds on to nationalistic positions on ICTY and Kosovo.

POLT