KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (4/23-4/27)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000569

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/17
TAGS: PBTS UNSC PGOV PREL PHUM KPAO SR
SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (4/23-4/27)

REFS: A) BELGRADE 565 B) BELGRADE 533 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by A/POLCOUNS Ian Campbell, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (U) This cable summarizes notable events relating to
Serbia and Kosovo.

SUMMARY
--------------


2. (C) The focus for the week was three-fold: the dominant story was
the run-up to and the aftermath of the Security Council Mission (SCM)
to Belgrade April 26 (with follow-on travel to Kosovo). The visit,
according to US PermRep Ambassador Khalilzad, would not sway the
opinions of Council members. Simultaneously, media covered a
demonstration by 8-12,000 Serb IDP's on the administrative boundary
line (ABL) between Serbia and Kosovo timed and organized by the GoS
to coincide with the SCM visit - highlighting a growing theme in
Belgrade that returns must be a particular focus of any Kosovo
settlement. Meanwhile, earlier in the week, media focused on the
intentions of Slovakia with regard to the UNSC process, culminating
in Tadic's visit there April 24-25. End summary.

SCM VISIT
--------------


3. (c) The April 26 Security Council Mission (SCM) to Belgrade
(reported ref a) produced little new substance on the Kosovo status
issue, but was spun by PM Kostunica as an endorsement of the re-start
of negotiations. The GoS passed to SCM members its "new proposal"
for an alternative solution to the status issue, which was nothing
more than a re-hash of Serbian autonomy proposals dating back more
than a year. A few of the more unprepared SCM members, notably the
South African PermRep, made unhelpful statements about alternative
solutions and disparaging Ahtisaari, but the summary press statement
by the Belgian PermRep hit all the right marks, emphasizing that the
process would continue to be focused in New York. Ambassador
Khalilzad believes the likely impact on hearts and minds in the UNSC
from this trip will be negligible.


4. (c) In addition to the outcomes reported ref a, the UN office in
Belgrade offered the following additional items at a debrief of the
visit April 27: they emphasized that the overall objective of the
GoS appeared very clearly to be to interject the "new" Serbian
proposal into the UNSC process as a viable alternative to the
Ahtisaari plan. Despite the repeated assurances of the Belgian
PermRep at his press conference following the meetings that the UNSC
was going back to New York to debate the Ahtisaari plan only (using
this trip to inform the debate),the local UN office surmised that a
casual observer might conclude that the GoS had been successful -
judging primarily by the public expression of support for
consideration of the Belgrade proposal given by the South African
PermRep at the meeting.


5. (c) In other meeting notes, the UN office highlighted the fact
that the Chinese PermRep, following the South African comments,
steered the discussion back on track by noting to Tadic briefings
they had received in Brussels casting the status process as a choice
between controlled and uncontrolled independence. From the meeting
with parliamentarians, the UN office noted that democratic opposition
party LDP had remained surprisingly quiet, allowing Vojvodina MP (and
former LDP coalition partner) Nenad Canak to carry forward the
dissenting view. Similarly, the UN office clarified that SRS leader
Toma Nikolic had been uncharacteristically reserved, and that it was
Socialist leader Ivica Dacic who had been the most vitriolic - e.g.,
comparing Kosovo Serbs to Jews in Nazi Germany.

IDP RALLY
--------------


6. (sbu) Organizers had hoped to draw 10,000 IDP's from Kosovo to
the administrative boundary (ABL) crossing point of Rudnica for a
two-day demonstration, April 26-27, timed to convey to the SCM. SCM
leader Ambassador Verbeke, however, announced during his press
conference that the mission would not be able to visit the rally
because of "logistical problem" and lack of time. As of April 27,
the demonstration was peaceful - government officials (including the
Commissioner for Refugees, Dragisa Dabetic, and CCK VP Nenad Popovic)
told us previously they had driven home the message that violence
will work against the interest of the IDPs and the Government of
Serbia. Buses, trains, and private vehicles transported the IDPs
from Serbia and Montenegro to the boundary crossing, where IDPs
displaced within Kosovo joined them from the other side of the ABL.
A little-known and little active umbrella association of IDP
associations (The Association of Displaced Persons and Exiles) was
the nominal organizer of the event, with active support and
contributions from the Serbian National Council. Behind the scenes,
though, extensive GoS support and financing was apparent. We learned
from a local NGO contact, for instance, that Dabetic tasked his
Commissariat municipal representatives throughout Serbia to promote

BELGRADE 00000569 002 OF 003


the demonstration and to organize the bus transportation. Popovic,
who told us that the government is supporting but not financing the
event, provided interviews about the demonstration to broadcast and
print media. Popovic has publicly described the demonstration as a
signal of great interest and the beginning of massive returns to
Kosovo.

GOS ACTIVITIES
--------------


7. (sbu) Minister of State Administration and Local Self-Government
Zoran Loncar said April 22 that a new negotiating process on
Kosovo-Metohija should primarily solve the issue of the return of the
Serbs exiled from the province. PM Kostunica echoed this on April
23, saying the Serbian government now places the greatest emphasis on
the issue of mass and immediate return of 200,000 exiled Serbs, and
that the UN mission has to answer this issue. The PM repeated this
claim, as did President Tadic, as a main theme of meetings with the
SCM.

8. (sbu) Fonmin Draskovic met with representatives of the French
Foreign Ministry April 26 saying that Serbia is willing to negotiate
directly with Pristina and compromised based on the technical aspects
of the Ahtisaari plan but not the part that alters Serbia's status
and borders. In the April 26 issue of Le Figaro, Draskovic
criticized France, the US and UK for denying Serbs in Bosnia the
right to self determination, but supporting it in the case of Kosovo
Albanians.
REPORTED USG STATEMENTS
--------------


9. (sbu) Belgrade media reported the Ambassador's statement of
April 20 at the conference on 125 years of US-Serbia Diplomatic
Relations that the U.S. is determined that the UNSC should adopt a
resolution which would open the door to Kosovo gaining supervised
independence, and it will work on this with all the members of UNSC,
including Russia. A similar view was expressed by UK Ambassador
Wordsworth when he told Vecernje Novosti that a controlled
independence was better than an uncontrolled one, which could lead to
chaos.


10. (sbu) Belgrade press quoted DAS DiCarlo's statement from a
meeting in Skopje April 23 that the US wants the status of Kosovo
resolved this spring and opposes delays. She also stated that the
U.S. supports Ahtisaari in finding a solution for Kosovo, and that
the resolution of the Kosovo issue would contribute to the
integration of the region into EU and NATO. Local media reported
that Macedonian PM Gruesvcki told her Macedonia backed Ahtisaari's
proposal.


11. (sbu) B92 reported April 25 comments by the Ambassador that
Serbian IDPs have the right to return to their homes in Kosovo and
that normal life for them has to be secured. However, the Ambassador
stressed that the U.S. does not support new negotiations, and that it
will work with the CG and the UNSC on new resolution and by summer
Kosovo will get supervised independence.

OTHER DIPLOMATIC INITIATIVES
--------------


12. (sbu) At the April 23 EU foreign ministerial session in
Luxembourg, Slovakia requested that Kosovo status should be the
result of a UNSC resolution, and that this EU position should be
entered in the political statement issued by the EU-US Summit on
April 30 in Washington. Belgrade daily Politika, citing the Slovak
media, reported April 24 that Washington is now counting on having
secured the 9 votes needed to adopt a resolution which would open the
road towards for Kosovo. This reporting received little attention.
In his April 24 meeting with President Tadic, Slovakian President
Ivan Gasparovic said Slovakia understood Serbia's efforts to protect
its sovereignty in Kosovo and it backed an initiative that would
prevent any solution on Kosovo from being reached outside of the
UNSC. He said he supported the Slovakian FonMin's initiative to
compel the EU and US to find a solution for Kosovo through the UNSC.


13. (sbu) Russian FonMin Lavrov said on April 23 after meeting with
the EU Troika that the implementation of UNSCR 1244 is necessary for
the resolution of Kosovo status as it would enable the continuation
of negotiations. He denied that Russia was preparing its own version
of a UN Resolution on Kosovo, though there was press speculation that
the elements of such a resolution had been drafted.


14. (sbu) All Belgrade electronic media reported Russian Deputy
FonMin Titov's comments to journalists in Moscow April 24 that Russia
would not support a resolution in the UNSC that is not acceptable for
Belgrade and Pristina, adding that the threat of veto is meant to
stimulate the two sides to look for a mutually acceptable compromise.


15. (sbu) Assistant NATO SYG Erdman announced NATO foreign
ministers will meet in Oslo on April 27 and give their support for a
Kosovo solution at the UNSC as NATO troops will remain in the

BELGRADE 00000569 003 OF 003


province to guarantee peace and implementation of status solution. He
added that the NATO foreign ministers would discuss Kosovo in Oslo
with Russian FonMin Lavrov at a meeting between NATO's Council of
Cooperation with Russia.


16. (sbu) FoNet reported April 26 that UK Ambassador Wordsworth
told the presidents of Presevo, Bujanovac and Medvedja
municipalities, which are predominantly populated by Albanians, that
their municipalities are part of Serbia. According to Wordsworth, he
has conveyed this clear message because Albanian parties from
Southern Serbia have started initiatives to merge with Kosovo if
Kosovo gets independence.


POLT