KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/19 -

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000408 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PBTS KPAO SR MW YI SUBJECT: KOSOVO: SERBIA WEEKLY UPDATE (3/19 - 3/23) REF: BELGRADE 381 ¶1. (SBU) This cable summarizes notable events relating to Serbia and Kosovo. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: For the week of March 19, reports that Ahtisaari has recommended independence for Kosovo, followed by Russia's strong objections to any settlement other than a "compromise solution" through new talks, were the dominant events of the week related to Kosovo and Serbia. End Summary. UNOSEK VS RUSSIA: THE VIEW FROM BELGRADE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) As reported in reftel, PM Kostunica and other Serbian officials reacted quickly to applaud Russian calls throughout the week for new talks and a replacement for Ahtisaari. Belgrade media focused on Russian PermRep Vitaly Churkin's comments following SRSG Rueker's report, in which Churkin noted that the report was "one-sided" and that Moscow supports further talks. ¶4. (SBU) Coordinating Center for Kosovo (CCK) director and DSS VP Sanda Raskovic-Ivic announced she will lead a delegation to Moscow to support the Russian initiative with officials in the government and the Duma. Minister of Public Administration Zoran Loncar, who is also going to Moscow, told the press that the delegation will emphasize that Serbia "advocates a compromise" within UNSCR 1244 and called Russia's support "of historic importance." ¶5. (SBU) Former US PermRep Richard Holbrooke's comments to Zagreb daily "Jutarnji List" warning that violence could follow a Russian veto received attention from both the media and the PM's office. Kostunica's spokesperson said that Holbrooke warns of violence by Kosovo Albanians "as if he wishes for a new wave of violence." The spokesperson added that rather than "rewarding terrorists," the international community is obliged by UNSCR 1244 to prevent violence and punish terrorists. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Belgrade media noted support for an expedient UNSCR from EU and British officials and the UNSYG. EU Enlargement Commissioner Rehn said that Europe -- not Russia or the U.S. -- would "pay the price" if the UNSC did not pass a resolution. He stressed that he is working towards unity in Europe on Kosovo in the UN. Media also noted a British Foreign Office spokesman's comment that Britain supports Ahtisaari's proposal and believes that the plan offers extensive guarantees to the Serbs and Albanian communities in Kosovo. ¶7. (SBU) French Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy, during a visit to Belgrade on March 22, told Draskovic, Kostunica, and Tadic that he saw no need for further negotiations on Kosovo because Ahtisaari's proposal offered balanced guarantees to the Serb minority in Kosovo -- including international protection -- and to the Albanians. Draskovic and Kostunica expectedly chided the Ahtisaari plan as bereft of compromise and therefore unfit for UNSC deliberation. ¶8. Visiting EUR/SCE Director Hoh met with an array of civil society and GOS officials during his 3/23 visit. GOS officials close to the PM dismissed increasing speculation in Belgrade about a partition deal as "preposterous," although one allowed that partition could crop up in the longer term as a result of events on the ground (i.e., a de facto separation of northern Kosovo from an independent Kosovo). GOS and DS- related interlocutors also insisted that any solution would have to be endorsed by the UNSC. 3/23) ¶9. (SBU) According to one influential official close to the PM, a scenario involving a UNSCR followed by broad (but not unanimous) EU recognition of Kosovo would lead to a "4-6 month souring of relations" between Serbia and recognizing countries, followed by a re-normalization of ties. Officials acknowledged that the prospective coalition partners are negotiating potential reactions to an independence outcome, and one senior official told us that the DSS would request that all parties in coalition agree in writing to a firm policy response to Kosovo independence (including possible suspension of relations with EU and NATO countries, or, less drastically, recalling of Ambassadors). POLT