KOSTUNICA'S OPTIONS: ELECTIONS AND KOSOVO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001718 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV SUBJECT: KOSTUNICA'S OPTIONS: ELECTIONS AND KOSOVO REF: BELGRADE 1050 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Kostunica has two key decisions to make: whether to endorse President Tadic's reelection bid and how to proceed with a parliamentary resolution on Kosovo. On Friday, December 21, Kostunica's party unexpectedly withdrew from the parliamentary session, effectively suspending all election and Kosovo-related decisions until next week. While these issues will highlight differences between Kostunica and Tadic's parties, neither appears likely to threaten their ruling coalition. We expect Kostunica will not call for a boycott of the presidential elections, but will refrain from endorsing Tadic. Next week, the Radicals will try to use a parliamentary resolution to lock the government into enacting harsh, scripted consequences to Kosovo's independence or to paint the ruling parties as "traitors" if they protest. The resolution may preview the Radicals' presidential campaign strategy to show voters as Tadic is weak and ready to give up Kosovo. End Summary. DSS on the Sidelines -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) will decide over the weekend of December 22 whether to support President Tadic and his Democratic Party (DS) for the January 20, 2008 elections. DSS Vice President Milos Aligrudic told poloff December 20 that his party would probably neither support nor oppose Tadic's candidacy. Elections would go forward, Aligrudic said, due to the "political reality" that both the DS and Radicals support them, neutralizing the DSS's legal objections from last week. Aligrudic added that he was "95% sure" that New Serbia (NS) president Velimir Ilic will not run for president, meaning the DSS will avoid having to decide whether to endorse its main political partner (DSS and NS formed a pre-election coalition last year). Parliament to Debate Kosovo -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Next week, the Serbian parliament will hear a report from the GOS Kosovo negotiating team (headed by Kosovo Minister Samardzic and Foreign Minister Jeremic) in the wake of the conclusion of the Troika process and UNSC meeting on Kosovo on December 19. Parliament could also pass a resolution on Kosovo as early as December 26. Aligrudic said the DS was "understandably cautious" about the pending resolutino, since he predicted the Radicals would push to lock in harsh steps that Serbia must take if Kosovo declared, and countries recognized, independence. Aligrudic assessed that the Radicals would try to use the resolution to accomplish two objectives: make the DS either commit to these steps or be branded as "traitors," and to try to strain the DS-DSS ruling coalition. What to Expect from Resolution -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The resolution will likely call for more Kosovo status negotiations, reiterate Serbia's opposition to an EU Mission in Kosovo (or any replacement of UNMIK) without a new UN Security Council resolution, and require the GOS to react if countries recognize a Kosovo declaration of independence. Kosovo State Secretary Dusan Prorokovic told poloff December 20 that the GOS SIPDIS would meet with parties and key ministries to consult on the content, as with previous resolutions. In his view, the resolution would reflect Serbia's position that the UNSC meeting on December 19 was the "first of many" discussions on Kosovo status, and that Kosovo status negotiations began in earnest only with the Troika process. Prorokovic said that the Ahtisaari talks did not address status and were therefore "not real negotiations." Prorokovic said Serbia would look to "Russia and certain European countries' support" for more talks with Pristina and the international community. Parliament's last resolution on Kosovo, passed in late July 2007 (reftel),stopped short of defining what steps the GOS would take other than to "react vigorously." This time, with looming presidential elections pitting the Radicals against the DS, the Radicals may insist on specific steps. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The DSS admits it cannot stop or delay presidential elections while the DS and Radicals want to hold them in January. As the December 21 walkout shows, however, the DSS still wields key influence in parliament. As long as the DSS believes the DS is not softening on Kosovo (the DSS's main concern),post expects the DSS to remain effectively neutral during the campaign but work for a BELGRADE 00001718 002 OF 002 Kosovo resolution (barely) palatable to the DS. The DSS will likely use next week's parliamentary sessions to ensure the DS holds the line on Kosovo but also to hold off Radical demands for harsh consequences against countries that recognize its declaration of independence. End comment. MUNTER