SERBIAN PATRIARCH DYING; BISHOPS MANEUVERING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001560 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL 11/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SR SUBJECT: SERBIAN PATRIARCH DYING; BISHOPS MANEUVERING REF: BELGRADE 1446 BELGRADE 00001560 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: DCM Jennifer Brush, reasons 1.4 (b,d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Serbian Orthodox Church Patriarch Pavle is 93 years old and in declining health. The Church already is preparing to select a new patriarch. The process of choosing a successor will involve a complex process of election and divine selection. Metropolitan Amfilohije and Bishop Irinej are the apparent favorites to succeed Pavle. U.S. attendance at any eventual funeral of Serbia's most important and widely beloved spiritual leader will go far in demonstrating our respect for Serbian culture, at a time when the public widely believes America is trying to hurt Serbia. Department should consider high-level, high-profile attendance at the Patriarch's funeral. End Summary. Church Appoints Amfilohije as Patriarch Lies Ill -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) The Serbian Orthodox Church (SOC) announced the hospitalization of Patriarch Pavle, November 13, and the appointment of longest-serving bishop, Metropolitan Amfilohije, to assist the Patriarch in his duties. Pavle, who is 93, has been ill periodically for the past two years and has been unable to perform his daily duties for several months. While Dragan Makojevic, head of SOC's charity Philanthropy, told DCM that Pavle was in the hospital only for a routine checkup, the press reports suggest that the Patriarch's condition is more serious. On November 14, he remained in the hospital and received President Boris Tadic. ¶3. (SBU) With Amfilohije's appointment, the Holy Synod (the the SOC governing body) removed Pavle's previous assistant, Metropolitan Jovan of Zagreb, Ljubljana, and Italy, replacing the oldest bishop with the longest-serving. The SOC press release said the choice of Amfilohije was not a hint about the choice of the next Patriarch. The press release did not explain the decision to replace Jovan. Professor of religion and SOC insider Mirko Djordjevic told us the Synod probably chose to remove Jovan because the SOC perceived as too sympathetic toward the Macedonian Orthodox Church's claims for autocephaly. Makojevic told DCM the change was "routine." How to Elect a Patriarch -------------- ¶4. (SBU) According to Church law, the 40 SOC bishops of Serbia and the diaspora elect the new Patriarch. There are approximately 30 bishops who meet the eligibility requirement for nomination (five years of service as bishop). The secret vote involves a convocation of at least 2/3 of the bishops and a monk each from the Orthodox monasteries in Hilandar (Mt. Athos) and Zica. The monks prepare to act on behalf of the Holy Ghost by fasting and praying for guidance. The bishops select three nominees whose names they place in envelopes in a chalice. The elder of the two monks draws one envelope and names the new patriarch. Frontrunners -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Djordjevic told us there was an ongoing power struggle within the church and that a very active lobby system had been in play since Pavle entered the hospital on November 13. According to Djordjevic, the strongest candidates were Amfilohije of Montenegro and the Coastlands, whom he claims is backed by the Russian Orthodox Church and probably Kostunica, and Bishop Irinej Bulovic of Backa, a former Milosevic favorite. The Bosnia lobby supports the infamous Bishop Vasilije of Zvornik-Tuzla. Vasilije was a notorious Karadzic and Mladic associate who blessed paramilitary troops as they began their campaigns and blessed all gatherings at Bosnian Serb army headquarters on Pale mountain outside Sarajevo. Vasilije also organized the first overt manifestation of Milosevic-style nationalism when in 1987, over the objections of the Bosnian republic government, he organized the ceremonial procession of Battle of Kosovo hero Tsar Lazar's relics through the monastery outside of Tuzla. According to Djordjevic, Bishop Artemije from Kosovo was the weakest candidate. Djordjevic said the government still heavily influenced church politics and would probably put pressure on bishops to vote for its favorite. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) There are clearly many forces at work in the succession power play. It is likely that the government will influence the final outcome, and Amfilohije seems to be the Prime Minister's candidate. Despite the pains the SOC took in pointing out that Amfilohije's appointment as assistant will not affect the next election, it suggests the SOC leadership favors him as well. Despite Amfilohije's reputation as a hardliner (he frequently appeared with Milosevic and has publicly stated support for Hague indictee Ratko Mladic),during a cordial meeting with Ambassador in October, Amfilohije stated his BELGRADE 00001560 002.2 OF 002 eagerness to cooperate with Post's assistance efforts (reftel),an encouraging sign. ¶7. (C) Whether or not Pavle is at death's door right now, he is 93 and may not last much longer. Embassy recommends the Department begin considering recommendations for the delegation to his funeral. We expect high-level attendance from the region and parts of Europe, including President Putin. The patriarchs of the other autocephalous churches will attend. A high-level delegation from the United States would convey the message that we respect Serbian history and culture and that we treat Serbia as a serious member of modern European society, which should likewise adhere to European standards. End Comment. MUNTER