Serbia: Vojislav Seselj Goes on Trial in The Hague while

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001532 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KV SR SUBJECT: Serbia: Vojislav Seselj Goes on Trial in The Hague while SAA Initialed in Brussels SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Notorious Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj's November 7 war crimes trial in The Hague attracted only moderate media attention in Belgrade and no public pronouncements or protests. With the concomitant press of Serbia's initialing of a Stability and Association Agreement Seselj popularity's at least this week has been neutralized, as Serbia focuses on a European future, but is reminded of its bloody past. End Summary Moderate Media Coverage of Proceedings -------------- ¶2. (U) Media interest in the case was muted. The influential pro-government newspaper "Politika" on November 8 dedicated a page to the trial, reporting the prosecution's opening remarks, trial's history and Seselj's past inflammatory statements. Most other dailies documented the opening remarks without analysis or commentary. The government RTS television station aired the pre-trial hearing, November 6, drawing 21% of the viewing audience, but the broadcast of the first day of the trial commanded only a 13.61% audience share, with 382,130 viewers. On November 8, trial coverage airing Seselj's opening statements attracted 34.01% of the viewing audience. Radicals Unlikely to Gain in the Polls -------------- ¶3. (U) Although the popular wisdom argues that the trial of Slobodan Milosovic, from 2002-2006,at first boosted his popularity, this time around local analysts do not expect the Radical Party (SRS) to profit from renewed scrutiny of Seselj's crimes. Independent journalist Dejan Anastasijevic told emboff that "speculation that the trial will boost Radical's popularity is overrated. Instead, the trial will bring back ugly memories that even SRS supporters would like to forget," Anastasijevic said. Presenting a different view, Sonja Biserko of Serbia's Helsinki Committee told emboff that, with Seselj the link between the state and the paramilitary forces, the importance of the trial is to expose the criminality underlying the Yugoslav wars. Initialing the SAA: Moving Towards Europe -------------- ¶4. (U) Coinciding with the trial, Serbia's initialing of its Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with the European Commission on November 7, played positively in Belgrade. The initialing became possible only after The Hague's Chief Prosecutor Carla Del Ponte confirmed Serbia's continued cooperation with the Tribunal. Most acknowledged that the event brought Serbia one step closer to EU membership, while recognizing that Serbia must still fully comply with ICTY. ¶5. (U) The governing coalition applauded the initialing of the SAA and presented the EC a new action plan towards full EU integration. The action plan calls for Serbia to sign the SAA by the end of January 2008, to be on the EU's white Schengen list and to be an EU candidate country, both by the end of 2008. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said on November 6 he looked forward to a final signing as soon as possible, noting that the SAA would lead to new investments and a "better standard (of living) for Serbia's citizens." President Boris Tadic said on November 7 the initialing proved Serbia could become a full member of the EU, and hoped the SAA could be signed in the next couple of weeks, once Serbia achieved full cooperation with The Hague. .Mladan Dinkic, leader of the G-17 Plus said on November 6 he hoped Serbia would have EU candidate status by the end of 2008. Opposition was more cynical, saying Serbia's EU future was not yet guaranteed. SRS MP, Zoran Krasic (and lawyer to Seselj),on November 7 criticized the public optimism surrounding the SAA, saying that the initialing was insignificant and guaranteed Serbia nothing. Media Reaction: Mostly Positive, but Realistic -------------- - ¶6. (U) Local media extensively covered the initialing of the SAA. While positive on the initialing, the media was also astutely aware that it was primarily symbolic. Pro-government paper "Politika" on November 8 called the initialing Serbia's entryway into Europe. "Politika" also carried an interview with Russian Ambassador to Serbia Alexander Alekseyev, who said Russia supported the SAA process and congratulated Serbia on the initialing. Only tabloid "Kurir's" negative coverage stood out. Under the November 8 headline "Exchange for Kosovo?" Kurir speculated that the EU's sudden goodwill in moving the SAA process along could be compensation for impending loss of Kosovo Comment -------------- BELGRADE 00001532 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Seselj's trial began at an auspicious moment for Serbia. As Serbia moves closer to European integration via the SAA process, providing the public with a healthy dose of the truth will assist the country, or at least provide an opportunity for the country, to face the consequences of its past. Looking towards the future, the initialing of the SAA also comes at a particularly good time for Serbia's democratic forces who can claim this as a major accomplishment and point towards Serbia's now clearer path to the EU, once Serbia fulfills its commitments to The Hague. End comment. MUNTER