UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001363

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: PBTS PGOV PREL KPAO SR KV
SUBJECT: BELGRADE FEIGNS OPTIMISIM AFTER DIRECT TALKS

Summary
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1. (SBU) Serbian leaders returned from the September 28 Kosovo talks
in New York boasting confidence in Serbia's Kosovo strategy and
hopeful that the talks could produce an agreement. The Foreign
Minister told the Ambassador privately on October 1 that he believed
the Troika was receptive to President Tadic's concept of a "common
sovereign home" for Belgrade and Kosovo. Post will continue to meet
with government leaders and negotiators to ensure reasonable
expectations. End Summary.

Tadic Optimism
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2. (SBU) Returning to Belgrade, following the first face-to-face
meeting in the current round of Troika-facilitated Kosovo talks in
New York, September 28, Serbia's lead negotiators told the public
that they were more optimistic about success of Serbia's Kosovo
policy. Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic told the Ambassador on October
1 that the Belgrade-Pristina talks in New York had gone well mainly
because of the tone President Tadic had expressed in his
intervention. Asked about the tone of Prime Minister Kostunica,
Jeremic was mildly critical, saying Kostunica "always saw the glass
half empty," Jeremic emphasized, however, that Tadic's Democratic
Party (DS) and Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) were
united in their approach to Kosovo, despite clear differences in
their long-term visions for Serbia. Jeremic, saying he reflected
the President's views, said he thought there was a real chance for a
negotiated settlement with Pristina.


3. (SBU) Jeremic said he believed the Troika, especially Ischinger,
was receptive to Tadic's concept of a "common sovereign home" for
Serbs and Kosovars, and that the Serbs believed Ischinger would work
hard before the mid-October meetings in Brussels to give that
concept some meaning. The Troika, Jeremic said, had a mandate to be
more forward leaning and advance new ideas and solutions. The
Ambassador noted that he had seen nothing of such a new Troika
mandate in the two written statements that came from the session,
but Jeremic said it was his "impression" that this was the case.
Jeremic believed that he and Samardzic would lead the Serbian
delegation at Brussels.

Realism
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4. (SBU) MFA Political Director Borislav Stefanovic lacked his
leaders' optimism about reaching an agreement with Kosovo's Unity
Team. Stefanovic told poloff, October 4, that the notion of "common
sovereignty" offered considerable authority to the Kosovars, but it
did not bridge the gap between independence and autonomy. In
response to poloff's urging that Serbia introduce the gap-filling
proposal as soon as possible, Stefanovic said he did not expect
Serbia to put a proposal on the table that the Kosovo could accept.
Echoing Jeremic, Stefanovic said that "if Serbia were able to accept
such a proposal," it would have to come from the Troika -- and
"Serbia is not able."

Serb Negotiators Define Progress: Delay
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5. (SBU) In a joint broadcast with Jeremic on RTS state television
on October 3, Kosovo Minister Slobodan Samardzic said Serbia's
"common Kosovo policy...[had] achieved results in New York" and
suggested that the tone of the talks had improved. Samardzic added
that Belgrade could be optimistic, because the GOS request had
successfully extended the Kosovo status talks past the summer of
2007, implying that they could do so again.

... and Avoiding Regional Precedent
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6. (SBU) The two ministers warned of the regional implications of a
Kosovo unilateral declaration of independence. Also on RTS on
October 3, Samardzic called national borders "the most sensitive
issue" in the Balkans and said that any change in borders "even as
part of oral agreements" would create a negative precedent for
"other ethnic disputes." Jeremic assured that Serbia sought only to
protect its territorial integrity, and did "not offer Albanians, and
they are not interested in, reintegration of Kosovo in Serbia."
Jeremic explained that Serbia offered Kosovo the "widest possible
autonomy... keep[ing] some attributes of sovereignty for us."

Comment
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7. (SBU) Kostunica and Tadic are united on Kosovo policy and both
plan to show in December that the Troika talks, particularly the
direct engagement with Pristina, were a good idea and productive.
They will market this point of view in particular to the Europeans
as rationale for more talks, pointing to progress as proof that more
talks are needed. This is unhelpful, and Post will try to point the

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Serbs in a different direction and persuade them that, if there are
new Serbian ideas, the earlier they are shared the better. Any last
minute proposals only will be met with cynicism and the Serbs, EU,
and Russians should be assured of that. End Comment.

BRUSH