LEBANON: CONGRESSMAN ISSA VISITS BEIRUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000944 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING H FOR JENNIFER BUTTE-DAHL E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017 TAGS: IS LE PGOV PREL PTER SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: CONGRESSMAN ISSA VISITS BEIRUT REF: BEIRUT 933 Classified By: DCM William Grant, Reason: Section 1.4 (b). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Congressman Darrell Issa (R-CA) visited Beirut June 24-25, where he held meetings with PM Siniora (reftel),Free Patriotic Movement General Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabil Berri, Future Movement leader Saad Hariri, and March 14 MP Samir Franjieh. The visit occurred in the wake of Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa's unsuccessful efforts to jumpstart a national dialogue between the majority and opposition parties, as well as the attack on UNIFIL in Khiam. Issa stressed the US, continuing strong support for Lebanon and expressed his hope that Lebanon would find a solution to the current government impasse that would lead to democratic presidential elections this fall. In all the meetings, we noted among Issa's interlocutors a slight shift in blame for the current impasse from domestic political opponents to outside actors, including Syria, Iran, and al-Qaeda, depending on the interlocutor's political affiliation. Issa also met with United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Director Richard Cook. End summary. AOUN SEES SECOND GOVERNMENT AS PREFERABLE TO NO ACTION -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In their June 25 meeting, General Aoun reiterated to Congressman Issa that only a national unity government could end Lebanon's disequilibrium; formation of a second government, even if internationally viewed as a coup, would be preferable to no action at all or to the current crippled government structure. Aoun expressed confidence that the second government would achieve international recognition and ultimately succeed. The General refused to support any other "consensus" presidential candidate; he sees himself as Lebanon's next president. It is time to remove the international support propping up March 14, Aoun told us; only the US and Europe recognize the current government as legitimate. ¶3. (C) The Arab League initiative failed because Secretary General Amr Moussa was too biased toward March 14, Aoun claimed. Syria's behavior depends upon Lebanese politicians' actions, he continued, and Lebanon needs to calm the situation to remove Syria's pretext for interference and to regain the loyalties of the Lebanese who are acting on behalf of Syria. In a national unity government, Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement would expect to gain control of at least one of the following key ministries: Finance, to break free of the embedded corruption of the Hariri group's 15 year rule; Interior or Defense, to boost morale and motivate all Lebanese to protect their nation's security; or Foreign Affairs. Finally, Aoun commented that he was certain that Hizballah was not responsible for the June 24 attack on the Spanish UNIFIL troops in Khiam; the General told us he has been expecting such an attack from foreign terrorists since before the expanded UNIFIL force arrived last year. BERRI INSISTS ON CONSENSUS PRESIDENT; BLAMES AL-QAEDA FOR LEBANON'S PROBLEMS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Parliament Speaker Nabil Berri blamed March 14's insistence on guarantees from the opposition that it would not resign from a national unity government and that it would participate in the parliamentary vote for president for Moussa's failed initiative. Opting not to attend a session is part of democracy, he argued. He reiterated his well-known position that the Siniora government is illegitimate because it lacks Shia representation since the November 2006 resignation of six opposition ministers. In Berri's view, a consensus on the presidency was the solution to Lebanon's political stalemate, and he again vowed to convene parliament "at 10:30 am on September 25" to hold a vote. He claimed to have no objections to either a national unity government, offering to give up one of Amal's cabinet positions if Aoun continued to insist on five seats, or to a new electoral law. Although he argued that, by law, BEIRUT 00000944 002 OF 003 President Lahoud should sign the June 24 cabinet decree to allow the August 5 by-elections to go forward, he said he had no opinion on this and had told Hizballah not take a position either. ¶5. (C) Noting that several of the terrorists killed in recent clashes with the LAF in Tripoli were from Saudi Arabia and Chechnya, Berri blamed Al-Qaeda for the violence in Lebanon, claiming its target was Shia Muslims. Berri said he feared the "wind was now coming from Iraq" and (even if Syria was involved) a unified GOL was necessary to resist these outside pressures. Issa urged Berri to reconvene parliament in September and not to boycott the presidential elections. MARCH 14 HAS A DIFFERENT VIEW -------------- ¶6. (C) In contrast to Aoun and Berri, MP Samir Franjieh and other March 14 supporters blamed Syria and Iran for Lebanon's political instability. Franjieh said Hizballah has become stronger as part of Iran's efforts to trigger violence in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iraq to strengthen Tehran's position in its dialogue with the US, while Syria is using tactics like the UNIFIL attack as scare tactics to force European countries like France and Italy to engage with Damascus. Lebanon faces an existential question, he said, "Beirut or Gaza?" Franjieh stressed the need to better monitor the Syrian border and the need for continuing US military assistance to help the LAF control Lebanon's security situation. Franjieh dismissed prospects for a national unity government, claiming that Hizballah had never had any intention of forming one. The question was how to reach the moderate Shia. While March 14 agrees on the need to find a consensus president who would respect the constitution, no names were mentioned at the meeting. HARIRI DECRIES SYRIAN INTERFERENCE; REPEATS DEMANDS FOR MORE US MILITARY EQUIPMENT -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Future Movement leader Saad Hariri echoed the warnings of his March 14 colleagues that Lebanon was headed, like Gaza, for two governments, arguing that if the international community didn't act now, it would require two or three times more effort to bring stability to Lebanon in the future. The June 24 attack on UNIFIL was, in his eyes, a clear message from Damascus. He blamed Syrian complicity for the situation in Gaza, asking, "How obvious does it have to be?" Unfortunately, he said, there are people who still want to engage with Damascus. The Syrian economy is "booming," he claimed, while Lebanon, which should have been experiencing the full benefits of the summer tourism season by now, was instead battling groups like Fatah al-Islam. ¶6. (C) Hariri decried what he perceived as the international community's lack of interest in standing up to the Assad regime, arguing that the view seemed to be, "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't," a policy, he said, that is "killing the region." Issa noted US efforts to isolate Syrian internationally, stressing our opposition to the Syrian regime's behavior in Lebanon and our determination that Lebanon would not become the next Gaza. Hariri, continuing his sobering assessment, said if not Gaza, then Iraq. The Eido assassination has caused tensions in Lebanon to reach a boiling point, he said, and he didn't know how much longer he could restrain Sunni anger. Look at Tripoli, he said, we are battling extremists everywhere, and the army can't handle much more -- at least not without more sophisticated weaponry. Hariri pleaded for the US to help "give the army teeth" by providing Cobras or convincing the Belgians to provide Leopards. Issa took the message on board and agreed to discuss it with Congress. GOL WILLING TO ASSIST PALESTINIAN REFUGEES, BUT REQUIRES INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) Director Richard Cook told Congressman Issa there were two messages that should be taken back to Washington. First, the Lebanese government is "very keen" to be seen in assisting the BEIRUT 00000944 003 OF 003 Palestinian refugees who have been displaced by the fighting with Fatah al-Islam (FAI) in Nahr al-Barid camp, but the GOL really needs international financial assistance to make this support possible. UNRWA has been in constant contact with PM Siniora since the conflict began May 20, and cooperation in arranging UNRWA emergency relief for the Palestinian refugees has been positive. Second, the conflict in Nahr al-Barid should not be seen through the prism of a conflict between the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the Palestinians. Cook said many of FAI fighters were foreigners, not Palestinians, and that the U.S. Congress should not cut off UNRWA aid to the Palestinian refugee camps in a "misguided" attempt to stop Islamic militants who might indirectly benefit from such assistance. Cook concluded that Nahr al-Barid will have to be rebuilt. There are no other alternatives. The GOL has stressed the camp must stay in its present location, and it will not allow any additional Palestinian refugee camps to be established in Lebanon. Also, most of Palestinian refugees have indicated to UNRWA that Nahr al-Barid is their home and they want to return. ¶7. (U) Congressman Issa has not reviewed this cable. FELTMAN