LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI REVIEWS NEXT STEPS ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000814 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAAD HARIRI REVIEWS NEXT STEPS ON THE TRIBUNAL AND AGAINST SUNNI MILITANTS Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Saad Hariri thanked the Ambassador and IO A/S Silverberg in a 6/5 meeting for U.S. support in adoption of the tribunal, and he pledged to move quickly on selecting Lebanese judges. He suggested that locating the tribunal in Cyprus could handicap the ability of Turkish pressure on Syria to cooperate. Hariri commented that passage of the tribunal was a relief to the moderate opposition, but expressed frustration that the hard-core pro-Syrians are fomenting such instability. The GOL has had amazing luck thus far in the battle against Fatah al-Islam, Hariri noted, but will need additional weapons for the next phase of its strikes against Jund as-Sham and other militant groups. Finally, Hariri, in an aside, attributed to Syrian threats a Future Bloc Alawite MP's withdrawal from the March 14 group. End Summary. WORKING QUICKLY TO IMPLEMENT THE TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶2. (C) March 14 majority leader MP Saad Hariri and his advisors Ghattas Khoury and Nader Hariri thanked the Ambassador and visiting IO A/S Silverberg in a 6/5 meeting for U.S. support in the UNSC's recent adoption of the tribunal. Hariri hoped that the tribunal would deliver justice in the short-term, and deter similar political assassinations as well as encourage positive change in Lebanon and across the Middle East in the long-term. It is time for Syria to pay if it is guilty, he commented. ¶3. (C) A/S Silverberg urged Hariri to keep up the pressure to set up the tribunal. Hariri agreed that Lebanon could move quickly to establish a closely held list of candidates for the Lebanese judges. A/S Silverberg explained that the UN will soon set up an account to collect money for the tribunal, contacting prospective host countries, seeking out potential judges, and setting up a framework of staff. Learning that UNIIIC Chief Investigator Serge Brammertz says he does not want to be prosecutor but will remain until the tribunal is formed, Hariri asked whether an unspecified German woman working with Brammertz who previously worked as a prosecutor in the Milosevic tribunal might be an appropriate candidate. Hariri agreed that UN Legal Advisor Nicolas Michel appears personally committed to establishing the tribunal, and Ban Ki-moon seems to have delegated further work on it to Michel. The GOL will continue to reach out to UNSC members who were not fully supportive of the tribunal to ease any further, related resolutions. In particular, the GOL will focus its efforts on South Africa, which Hariri noted counts on its weapons sales to Syria, as well as Russia, China, Indonesia, Congo, and Ghana, in order to build support for Lebanon in any future votes. Qatar, however, is a lost cause, he said. ¶4. (C) Hariri did not express a strong preference for the venue of the tribunal. Although he was not opposed to Cyprus, Hariri commented that Turkey had been quite helpful with Syria and that locating the tribunal in Cyprus could put the Turks in an awkward position in terms of any request to the Turks to apply their efforts to push the Syrians to cooperate. Holding the tribunal in Turkey itself might embarrass Turkey on account of its ties to Syria, Hariri mused, but PM Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul have been very supportive thus far. OPPOSITION REACTION TO THE TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶5. (C) The tribunal has had a positive impact on all but the most hard core pro-Syrian opposition, according to Hariri. In particular, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri felt that a great load had been taken off his back. While General Aoun's personal responses have been contradictory, Aoun bloc MPs have congratulated Lebanon on the passage of the tribunal. Suleiman Franjieh appears scared that he will be implicated by the tribunal, Hariri noted, since he was Minister of Interior at the time of the assassination and failed initially to prevent his staff from interfering with investigation of the crime scene. BEIRUT 00000814 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) In contrast, the hard-core pro-Syrians and the Syrians themselves are not reacting well. Hariri described the current period as a concerted Syrian effort to destabilize Lebanon and make the Lebanese believe that Al-Qaida is present, in order to make Americans afraid, and in turn to shift blame for any future political assassinations away from Damascus. Fatah al-Islam (FAI) leader Shakir al-Absi is not an al-Qaida member, Hariri argued, and the March 14 coalition needs to focus on this in the media. Those terrorists who are in Lebanon are mainly coming through Syria, Hariri noted. ¶7. (C) Hariri praised Serge Brammertz for building so much credibility at UNIIIC that even the Russians and Chinese can't criticize him or consider the Commission politicized. Khoury asked how quickly the March 14 group might see a politically useful tool coming out of the tribunal resolution, such as a report that implicates specific culprits in the Rafiq Hariri assassination. While Brammertz could refer the names of individual suspects to the UN and request that they be sanctioned before referring them for prosecution, it is unlikely that he would do so, A/S Silverberg noted. In response to the Ambassador's question regarding the GOL's reaction if the prosecutor determines he does not have strong enough evidence to prosecute some of the four generals detained but not charged, Hariri pledged that the GOL will abide by the tribunal's recommendations. By that time Lebanon hopefully will have a new president and will have entered a new era, Hariri argued. LOOKING AHEAD TO MORE SUNNI MILITANTS -------------- ¶8. (C) The GOL has had amazing luck thus far in the battle against Fatah al Islam, Hariri gloated, and it is driving Hizballah crazy that the LAF is winning its battle in the Nahr al-Barid camp. The LAF's "surgical strikes" (delivered with 155 Howitzer rounds) have resulted in just 10-15 civilians killed thus far. After a brief respite on June 5, the army was ready to go further into the camp as early as that same evening. Of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) killed thus far fighting FAI, 30 are Sunnis from Akkar, while another 8 are Sunnis from Tripoli and surrounding areas. This helped account for the strong Sunni support of the LAF action. Khoury requested that the U.S. pass a message to London asking the British government to crack down on Egyptian Hani Sebai, who appeared on a June 3 television broadcast from London condemning Muslim LAF soldiers killed in the fight against FAI and calling the recently killed leader of al-Qaida in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi a martyr. ¶9. (C) In addition, the Tameer area, just outside the large Ain el-Helweh refugee camp, is now quiet after problems with Jund as-Sham (JAS) militants during the previous two days. There are no more Lebanese in JAS, Hariri argued, but only Palestinians and foreigners. However, the other Palestinian groups, including Hamas, Asbat al-Ansar, and Fatah, formed a joint command force under the dominant Fatah to control JAS on behalf of the LAF. The Iranian-affiliated Jihad al-Islami and Hizballah affiliated Ansar Allah are also intervening to prevent JAS from taking over Ain el-Helweh. The GOL will have to deal with JAS once it destroys FAI. ¶10. (C) Hariri said that addressing JAS as well as the south Beirut Palestinian tunnels of Naameh and the West Biqa' Palestinian border position of Qusaya will require different weapons. Qusaya is today surrounded by LAF following militants' attempt on June 4 to move heavy artillery and fighters in from Syria. Lebanon needs precision weapons and Apache helicopters to fight such militants, Hariri argued. ALAWI MP ABANDONS MARCH 14 -------------- ¶11. (C) Making polite conversation to poloff before the Ambassador's arrival at the meeting, Hariri commented that Alawite MP Mustafa Hussein of Akkar, who publicly announced his withdrawal from March 14 earlier that day, called Hariri before making the announcement. Hussein explained his withdrawal to Hariri as based on a disparaging comment Walid Jumblatt made about the Alawi community and promised to stay with the Future Movement even though he was no longer with March 14. Khoury noted that Hussein has moved to Beirut for security reasons and is planning to leave the country; the BEIRUT 00000814 003 OF 003 mayor of Hussein's hometown, Tal Abbas, is the head of the Ba'ath Party in Lebanon. FELTMAN