LEBANON: HARIRI TELLS THE HDAC THAT "DEMOCRACY IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000757

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO FOR ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI TELLS THE HDAC THAT "DEMOCRACY IS
SACRED"


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Saad Hariri told members of the House Democracy
Assistance Commission that the establishment of the
International Tribunal investigating the assassination of
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and others would send a
strong message throughout the Arab world. He warned that
Syria is opposed to both the Tribunal and to Lebanese
presidential elections. FPM leader General Michel Aoun is
losing ground, and his supporters will eventually come over
to the majority. He said the U.S. delegation should try to
convince Syria that support for the Tribunal is a bipartisan
issue in Lebanon, and that the Tribunal will send a strong
message of support for Lebanese democracy. Finally, Hariri
advised the delegation to tell the Lebanese opposition that
"they must participate" and to tell General Aoun that
"democracy is sacred." End Summary.

HARIRI POSITIVE ABOUT
THE VALUE OF TRIBUNAL
--------------


2. (C) Saad Hariri, Member of Parliament and leader of the
Mustaqbal party, met on May 15 with members of the House
Democracy Assistance Commission. The Ambassador, Econoff,
and Congressional staff aides accompanied the delegation.
Hariri thanked the members of Congress for their support, and
for recently-delivered ammunition for the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF). He said the ammunition was particularly
important, in light of the problems the LAF is facing in its
efforts against extremists in the north of Lebanon. Hariri
observed that with the wave of assassinations over the past
two years, the Lebanese now find themselves living in very
different times. (Note: During this period, four Members of
Parliament were killed, one was injured in an attempted
assassination, and the Minister of Defense was also wounded
in another attempt.) Hariri believes that the Syrian regime
is behind the attacks, bombs, and destabilization. He
pointed out that the Syrians say that they had nothing to do
with the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri,
and blame Israel, but if that were the case, why would the
Syrians be worried about the International Tribunal to try
suspects in the Hariri assassination? The Lebanese are only
interested in justice, after thirty years of oppression. The
way to stop the violence is through the tribunal. The
Syrians say, "The tribunal will de-stabilize Lebanon."
However, Hariri believes that on the contrary, the tribunal
will send a message throughout the Arab world that Lebanon
can succeed and achieve peace via democratic means.

CONTINUED WARNINGS ABOUT
THE DANGER OF SYRIA
--------------


3. (C) Lebanon has decided to fight for democracy, and is
currently fighting that battle in Tripoli. Hariri said,
"Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah says that we should not fight
Fatah al-Islam", which to Hariri indicates that Nasrallah is
speaking for Iran. Iran has a big role in the current
turmoil, and not everything can be blamed on Syria. However,
the leader of Fatah al-Islam is a convicted terrorist,
implicated in the death of a USAID employee in Jordan, and
imprisoned in Syria. Syria released him to go to Lebanon,
which makes it obvious that Syria engages terrorists. In
addition, Syria was responsible for the death of Rafiq
Hariri. However, Hariri continued, he was among the first to
ask PM Siniora to establish relations with Syria. According
to Hariri, Bashar al-Asad was given every opportunity to
bring Syria into the Arab mainstream when he took power. In
taking over from his father at the same time Jordan's King
Abdullah took over from his father, they had equal
opportunities. "Look where Jordan is now," Hariri said with
admiration. Assad, who unlike his father does not know when
to back off, is taking every opportunity to interfere in
Lebanon.

THE LEBANESE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS AND AOUN
--------------


3. (C) Turning to the fall presidential elections, Hariri

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pointed out that even if the elections were held tomorrow, no
one party would have the necessary two-thirds majority to
prevail in Parliament with its candidate. Any elected
president would need to have the support from other groups.
Interestingly, in the recent elections among the Lebanese
doctors' syndicate, the March 14 list won an overwhelming
victory, with the support of 70% of the Christians and even
20% of the Shia. (Note: Elections within professional
syndicates of this type usually reflect current public
opinion in Lebanon, at least within that socio-economic
stratum. End Note.) The doctors' outcome was obviously a
disappointment for General Michel Aoun, who believes that his
alliance with Hizballah is the only way he will achieve the
presidency. In fact, Aoun is louder in support of Hizballah
than Hizballah's own members; recently Aoun advocated that
Hizballah should keep its weapons forever, a policy that even
Hizballah does not embrace. (Note: Hariri pointed out that
if the issue of Sheb'a Farms were to be resolved, there would
be consensus to ask Hizballah to disarm. End Note.) Hariri
also pointed out that when Aoun was Prime Minister, prior to
the first Gulf War, he sided with Saddam Hussein. It is
impossible to negotiate with Aoun, but after the elections,
Hariri believes it will be possible for Aoun's supporters to
join the majority. "We talk to them and we know that they
don't all believe whatever Aoun says." Hariri thinks that
many of Aoun's supporters are afraid of defecting now, but
after the election most Christians will support the new
president. The March 14 bloc is the only grouping with
supporters from all sects: Sunni, Christian, Druse, and
Shia.

WHAT SHOULD THE U.S. MESSAGE BE?
--------------


4. (C) Hariri talked about possible pitfalls ahead for
Lebanon. The upcoming presidential elections present one
such problem. He hoped that Lebanon would not "fall into the
void" of no president, which he believed is what Syria wants.
Nor would he like to see a compromise candidate as
president, nor another "Lahoud." He asked the delegation to
"make Syria understand" that it cannot stop the Tribunal.
Hariri believed that Bashar al-Asad does not understand that
the tribunal is a bipartisan issue in the U.S. He believes
that although House Speaker Pelosi gave a stern warning to
Assad during her visit to Damascus, Asad used the visit as a
public relations opportunity to strengthen his own position.
Hariri then said that the result of Pelosi's warning to Asad
was Fatah al-Islam. A new, strong president will begin a new
era, and one, united voice warning Syria to stay out of
Lebanon would also help.

MESSAGE FOR THE OPPOSITION
--------------


5. (C) Hariri said, in response to a question, that it will
take at least six months to form the tribunal, and the
results will take two to three years. However, the decision
to establish the tribunal is the most important step. For
now, Syria "won't even hear about it." He pointed at the
recent explosions as a message to the UN Security Council to
stop the tribunal. It might be that the bombs will allow
Hizballah to say to Syria, "We have done what we can" to stop
the tribunal. After the tribunal is established, Syria will
be "humble." As for Nasrallah, he is a totally different
person now. Nothing he says makes sense, as he tries to be
the exporter of a revolution that the rest of the Arab world
does not want. Hariri did not believe in the concept of a
Shia Crescent; it is an Iranian idea. He believes that Iran
is testing the waters in Lebanon; if it works here, they will
export their concept to the Gulf. So far, Hariri claimed,
Hizballah has won nothing. Iran and Hizballah are trying to
create a new type of democracy, where the minority has a
veto. This effort to cripple the country will not work.
Hariri asked the delegation to point out to the opposition
politicians their responsibilities; they must participate in
the political system. He noted that when former PM Hariri
was leader of the minority, he did not cripple the country.
The fundamental difference between Lebanon and the rest of
the Arab world is democracy, and it should be made clear to
Aoun that, "Democracy is sacred!"


6. (U) This cable has not been cleared by the House
Democracy Assistance Commission.
FELTMAN