ELIAS MURR, APPRECIATIVE OF USG HELP, PUSHES FOR

S E C R E T BEIRUT 000732 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2027 TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS PGOV PTER LE SY SUBJECT: ELIAS MURR, APPRECIATIVE OF USG HELP, PUSHES FOR TANK ROUNDS, HOWITZER AMMUNITION REF: STATE 70449 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Back in Beirut after another medical procedure in Switzerland, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias Murr called the Ambassador today (5/23) with two messages. First, Murr noted that he had been fully briefed by LAF Commander Michel Sleiman and other officers on the planned USG delivery of 5.56 MM ammunition for the LAF's M16s. Applauding the use of the ACSA for this, Murr asked that his personal and official gratitude be conveyed to U.S. officials for their quick action. "You are true friends," he said, noting that he had understood that, normally, it takes months for ammunition to be delivered and that many people had worked long hours to come up with a solution appropriate to the urgency of the LAF's needs. He expressed hope that the 5.56 MM ammunition would begin arriving by the weekend, which the Ambassador said was our hope as well. ¶2. (S) But, Murr said, the LAF is also facing critical shortages in 105 MM tank rounds for the LAF's M48 tanks and 155 MM artillery rounds. While the LAF has other needs, with the U.S. 5.56 MM ammunition now being arranged for delivery, these are the most urgent. The nature of the battle with Fatah al-Islam makes the use of tanks and Howitzers essential. "We can't defeat the terrorists with M16s alone." With civilian residents of the Nahr al-Barid camp now relocating, the time for a make-or-break fight between the LAF and Fatah al-Islam is rapidly approaching. It will be impossible to sustain the Palestinian refugee population in tents outside of Nahr al-Barid for a long period of time; if the LAF does not have artillery and tank rounds, the LAF will be forced to abandon the battle. Murr said that he realized that the USG may not have 105 MM tank rounds in our stocks and only limited quantities of 155 MM artillery rounds. But he urged that we facilitate the delivery of such supplies from other countries, mentioning Turkey in particular. ¶3. (S) Noting demarches being delivered (per reftel),the Ambassador told Murr that the USG is already reaching out to Lebanon's friends and urged Murr to contact other countries directly. The Ambassador asked whether Murr knew whether Saudi Arabia had transferred the USD 20 million promised to repay other countries for arms, and Murr responded, "not yet." (We have asked Siniora's office and Saad Hariri to let us know immediately when the transfer occurs, but we acknowledge that they may not remember to do so. We will check periodically.) ¶4. (S) Comment: Of course, we are not 100 percent certain that, ultimately, the LAF will take over the refugee camp in order to eliminate the Fatah al-Islam threat. We think that, the faster the LAF can be prepared to move, the more likely it is that the LAF will obtain the essential political cover to do what it takes to defeat FIA. Today, the LAF is motivated to avenge the 31 soldiers killed so far in this fight, and Lebanon's politicians are likely to rally around the army, if they are convinced the army has the ability to succeed. Two weeks from now, the picture is less clear: if there is a prolonged stalemate or if the LAF stops fighting for fear of exhausting its ammunition, it will be hard to restart momentum again later. If Lebanese history is any guide, the calls for a ceasefire with terrorists will become irresistible at some point if there is not a decisive battle soon. So, while delivery of tank and artillery rounds does not in and of itself guarantee a successful LAF takeover of the refugee camp, the lack of that ammunition makes LAF efforts against FIA practically impossible to sustain. The Ambassador is scheduled to meet with Murr on 5/24 in the afternoon (local time),and we hope we have some additional good news to deliver to him, on top of the scheduling of the arrival of the 5.56 MM ammunition. End comment. FELTMAN