S E C R E T BEIRUT 000732

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2027
TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: ELIAS MURR, APPRECIATIVE OF USG HELP, PUSHES FOR
TANK ROUNDS, HOWITZER AMMUNITION

REF: STATE 70449

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Back in Beirut after another medical procedure in
Switzerland, Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias
Murr called the Ambassador today (5/23) with two messages.
First, Murr noted that he had been fully briefed by LAF
Commander Michel Sleiman and other officers on the planned
USG delivery of 5.56 MM ammunition for the LAF's M16s.
Applauding the use of the ACSA for this, Murr asked that his
personal and official gratitude be conveyed to U.S. officials
for their quick action. "You are true friends," he said,
noting that he had understood that, normally, it takes months
for ammunition to be delivered and that many people had
worked long hours to come up with a solution appropriate to
the urgency of the LAF's needs. He expressed hope that the
5.56 MM ammunition would begin arriving by the weekend, which
the Ambassador said was our hope as well.


2. (S) But, Murr said, the LAF is also facing critical
shortages in 105 MM tank rounds for the LAF's M48 tanks and
155 MM artillery rounds. While the LAF has other needs, with
the U.S. 5.56 MM ammunition now being arranged for delivery,
these are the most urgent. The nature of the battle with
Fatah al-Islam makes the use of tanks and Howitzers
essential. "We can't defeat the terrorists with M16s alone."
With civilian residents of the Nahr al-Barid camp now
relocating, the time for a make-or-break fight between the
LAF and Fatah al-Islam is rapidly approaching. It will be
impossible to sustain the Palestinian refugee population in
tents outside of Nahr al-Barid for a long period of time; if
the LAF does not have artillery and tank rounds, the LAF will
be forced to abandon the battle. Murr said that he realized
that the USG may not have 105 MM tank rounds in our stocks
and only limited quantities of 155 MM artillery rounds. But
he urged that we facilitate the delivery of such supplies
from other countries, mentioning Turkey in particular.


3. (S) Noting demarches being delivered (per reftel), the
Ambassador told Murr that the USG is already reaching out to
Lebanon's friends and urged Murr to contact other countries
directly. The Ambassador asked whether Murr knew whether
Saudi Arabia had transferred the USD 20 million promised to
repay other countries for arms, and Murr responded, "not
yet." (We have asked Siniora's office and Saad Hariri to let
us know immediately when the transfer occurs, but we
acknowledge that they may not remember to do so. We will
check periodically.)


4. (S) Comment: Of course, we are not 100 percent certain
that, ultimately, the LAF will take over the refugee camp in
order to eliminate the Fatah al-Islam threat. We think that,
the faster the LAF can be prepared to move, the more likely
it is that the LAF will obtain the essential political cover
to do what it takes to defeat FIA. Today, the LAF is
motivated to avenge the 31 soldiers killed so far in this
fight, and Lebanon's politicians are likely to rally around
the army, if they are convinced the army has the ability to
succeed. Two weeks from now, the picture is less clear: if
there is a prolonged stalemate or if the LAF stops fighting
for fear of exhausting its ammunition, it will be hard to
restart momentum again later. If Lebanese history is any
guide, the calls for a ceasefire with terrorists will become
irresistible at some point if there is not a decisive battle
soon. So, while delivery of tank and artillery rounds does
not in and of itself guarantee a successful LAF takeover of
the refugee camp, the lack of that ammunition makes LAF
efforts against FIA practically impossible to sustain. The
Ambassador is scheduled to meet with Murr on 5/24 in the
afternoon (local time), and we hope we have some additional
good news to deliver to him, on top of the scheduling of the
arrival of the 5.56 MM ammunition. End comment.
FELTMAN