LEBANON: SINIORA STRESSES TRIBUNAL, AMMUNITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000727 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM MOPS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA STRESSES TRIBUNAL, AMMUNITION Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a May 22 meeting with the Ambassador, Prime Minister Siniora urged a quick UN Security Council resolution establishing the Special Tribunal and expressed confidence that Indonesia, as a UNSC member, supports the tribunal. Siniora was convinced of Syrian involvement in the recent violence in Lebanon and concerned that the fighting could spread to other Palestinian camps. He asked for urgent delivery of U.S. ammunition for the Lebanese army and ISF. End Summary. FLURRY OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 22, the Ambassador and poloff attended an oft-interrupted meeting with Prime Minister Siniora at the Grand Serail. EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Javier Solana, in Lebanon for the day, was meeting with Siniora when the Ambassador arrived. Within moments of beginning the meeting with the Ambassador, Siniora took a phone call from UN Secretary General Ban, who was calling to express support for the Prime Minister and the Lebanese Government. During the meeting, Siniora also reviewed the text of a communique issued by Arab League ambassadors in Egypt; both Siniora and later Minister of Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad -- whom the Ambassador saw in a separate meeting -- described it as a surprisingly strong and clear statement of support. ¶3. (C) Siniora relayed that he had cancelled his upcoming trip to Asia because of the security situation in Lebanon. Siniora expressed particular disappointment at not going to Indonesia, given Indonesia's membership in the Security Council. Explaning that he had called the Indonesian president to explain his cancellation, Siniora expressed confidence that Jakarta supports the tribunal. EXCHANGING IDEAS ON TRIBUNAL STRATEGY -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador explained U.S. tactics in lobbying UNSC capitals, and mentioned Panama, Peru, Congo, and Ghana as the countries needing Siniora's strong personal intervention now. The Prime Minister mentioned that he plans to seek the support of the Australians -- for their ties in the region, especially to Indonesia -- and claimed Saudi Arabia is actively working to gain support for Lebanon's case. Additionally, he has used Saad Hariri's contacts in South Africa to press for a phone conversation with Pretoria. Siniora was supportive of former President Amine Gemayel's planned trip to Qatar, reported septel, in which Gemayel would use his personal ties in Doha to solicit Qatari support for the tribunal. TRIBUNAL SOONER RATHER THAN LATER -------------- ¶5. (C) Siniora showed flexibility on the process by which the tribunal could come into force, but agreed that the court should be established as soon as possible. The Ambassador asked Siniora about an idea raised in New York: that the UNSC would adopt a resolution now that would come into force if, after a specified amount of time, Parliament is unable to establish the court on its own. While appearing not to care passionately one way or another, Siniora was amenable to this idea, saying it showed respect to Lebanese constitutional mechanisms. Regarding the concern that a rushed UNSC vote may get slightly fewer votes, Siniora supported expediting the process before Syria accelerates its pressure tactics: 9 yes votes now is better than 12 yes votes later, given the security concerns. He stressed that continued U.S. efforts to establish the tribunal were key and expressed hope that the Secretary and White House were fully engaged in the lobbying process. ADAMANT ABOUT SYRIAN ROLE IN RECENT VIOLENCE -------------- BEIRUT 00000727 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) While admitting that he had no real evidence, Siniora said he was convinced that the Sunni extremist group Fatah al-Islam takes its direction from Damascus. The Prime Minister expressed concern that fighting in Nahr el-Barad could spread to several other already tense Palestinian camps in Lebanon. (Note: Demonstrations earlier in the day at the Ain el-Helweh camp suggest that Siniora's concern is well rooted. End Note.) Additionally, the Prime Minister feared that the violence in Nahr el-Barad has inflamed anti-Palestinian sentiment in Lebanon's Sunni and Christian communities. Siniora noted that he has been meeting with Palestinian leaders individually and collectively in order to calm the situation in the other camps and to seek a solution for Nahr al-Barid. ¶7. (C) Regarding the cause of the current fighting, Siniora admitted it was possible that on Sunday, May 20, the Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF),in tracking bank robbery suspects, had stumbled onto a Fatah al-Islam safehouse that triggered the violence and led to high numbers of LAF casualties. However, he offered a theory of his own. Siniora suggested that Fatah al-Islam had actually lured the ISF to its safehouse -- knowing that fighting would follow -- in order to support the group's "self-defense" excuse for attacking Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) units near the camp. PM'S SECOND POINT: SECURITY FORCES NEED AMMO -------------- ¶8. (C) In addition to U.S. help on the tribunal, Siniora requested ammunition for both the LAF and the ISF. He assessed that now, U.S. action in these two areas is more useful than verbal support. Saying that once this current security problem is behind us and the tribunal established, the Prime Minister then raised Sheba'a Farms as the next topic for U.S. assistance, given the upcoming UNSCR 1701 report. FELTMAN