HAMADEH, MURR ON TRIPOLI FIGHTS; SEEKING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000712

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2027
TAGS: PREL PARM MOPS PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: HAMADEH, MURR ON TRIPOLI FIGHTS; SEEKING
ACCELERATION OF MILITARY ASSISTANCE

Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a 5/21 meeting with the Ambassador, Minister of
Communications Marwan Hamadeh and Deputy Prime Minister and
Defense Minister Elias Murr (who joined the conversation by
speaker phone from Switzerland) previewed what they predicted
wouuld be the conclusions of the cabinet meeting being held
tonight (5/21) to discuss the battles with Fatah al-Islam in
and around Tripoli. Hamadeh and Murr reported that careful
shuttle diplomacy between the ministers and Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman throughout the course
of today resulted in the following proposals which Hamadeh
and Murr expected the cabinet to approve:

-- Full green light for the LAF (and, as appropriate, the
Internal Security Forces) to use whatever means necessary to
secure the perimeter of the Nahr al-Barid Palestinian refugee
camp and to cordon off the camp.

-- Full green light for the LAF (and ISF) to return fire,
massively if the LAF chooses, if fired upon from the camp.

-- Request by the Prime Minister to donor countries to
accelerate their assistance to the LAF and ISF.

-- Increase in recruitment for the LAF.

-- Day of mourning declared for the 27 LAF soldiers and
officers killed.

-- Indemnities paid to the survivors of the LAF killed,
equivalent to the indemnities paid to survivors of LAF and
ISF members killed during last summer's war with Israel.


2. (C) The cabinet will not, Hamadeh and Murr said,
authorize the LAF to enter physically the camp. While some
ministers are likely to advocate such a move, the LAF itself
is not prepared. Entering the camp, home to up to 40,000
Palestinians, could result in a civilian massacres that could
ignite fighting in Lebanon's 11 other refugee camps. The
army could not handle multiple battles simultaneously,
especially given lack of ammunition. Politically, as Hamadeh
said, "Fouad (Siniora) can't look like an Israeli and expect
to survive." So the cabinet, Murr predicted, will give the
LAF full authority to "squeeze" the camp and to return fire,
but any decision to enter the camp will be put off for now.
"We can always look at this question again later," Hamadeh
said.


3. (C) Murr said that the main reason he concurs with
postponing a decision to enter the camp at this time is
because he does not feel that the LAF is properly equipped
for such an assault. He noted that one of the LAF's goals
(that will fall within the cabinet's anticipated green light)
is to take out the Fatah al-Islam outposts on the camp
perimeter, along the beach. But the LAF does not have
gunboats that could fire on these outposts from the sea. Nor
does the LAF have helicopter-based weapons systems, meaning
that the LAF has no air assault power. "We've been asking
you for these things," Murr said; "now you see why we need
them." Claiming that Fatah al-Islam has more heavy weaponry
than the LAF, Hamadeh said that he hoped, when the PM is
asked by the cabinet to request accelerated delivery of
assistance to the LAF, the USG will be quick to respond.


4. (C) The Ambassador asked Murr and Hamadeh what evidence
they had for the Syrian connections both saw behind Fatah
al-Islam. Hamadeh said that one of the Fatah al-Islam
fighters killed on 5/20 was named Saddam Abbas Deeb. The GOL
knows that he was brought to Lebanon six months ago by
Syria-allied Sunni figure Fathi Yaqin. Murr said that he
would brief the Ambassador more fully in person as to why he
was convinced Syria, as well as al-Qaida, was involved.


5. (C) Comment: If anyone doubted that the LAF would fight
Sunni extremists in the north, the drama of the last two days
has proven otherwise. We calculate that there is, in fact,
popular support for the LAF to enter Nahr al-Barid, given the
outrage over the death of 27 LAF soldiers and officers
yesterday. But the cabinet does not yet seem ready for that
political decision, and the LAF does not seem ready for the
battle that would ensue. The lack of equipment and supplies
is a serious problem: we estimate that the LAF has already
used more than 10 percent of its entire stock of tank rounds
(which were only 600 rounds at the beginning of this fight).
With only 800 rounds to its name of 120 mm mortars, the LAF

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could exhaust its mortar supply after only a few days'
fighting. Thus, the fear of the fighting spreading to other
Palestinian camps is not an irrational worry, given the LAF's
inability to sustain for long the use of firepower expended
over the last two days. We are working through ODC to see if
the USG is able to accelerate any of its anticipated
deliveries to give the LAF a morale boost and greater
fighting power.

FELTMAN