LEBANON: A/S WELCH ASSURES CHRISTIAN LEADERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000706 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: A/S WELCH ASSURES CHRISTIAN LEADERS Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a nd (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Christian leaders of the pro-reform March 14 Movement met on May 15 at the Ambassador's residence with NEA Assistant Secretary David Welch. In what was the A/S's first official meeting in Lebanon, the they expressed their hopes for the quick establishment of the Special Tribunal and noted that, is UNIIIC Commissioner Brammertz were to give names in his report, their position approaching presidential elections would be strengthened. On the presidency, they declared that they were determined not to accept a compromise candidate. They urged A/S Welch to underscore with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir the need for engagement (Much of the meeting was devoted to A/S Welch briefing them on the non-negotiable U.S. support for Lebanon as well as regional developments.) End summary. ¶2. (C) All of the March 14 major Christian constituencies were represented except the Gemayel Kata'ib party (as A/S Welch was scheduled for meet former President Amine Gemayel the following day). March 14 participants included MPs Samir Franjieh, Boutros Harb and George Adwan (Lebanese Forces), Minister for Social Affairs Nayla Mouawad, former MPs Fares Souaid and Nassib Lahoud (Democratic Renewal Party),Dory Chamoun (National Liberal Party) and Carlos Edde (National Bloc). WANTED: AN ACTIVE PATRIARCH -------------- ¶3. (C) A/S Welch noted that he would meet immediately after this meeting with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir and sought their views of how best to encourage the Patriarch to play an active political role in the upcoming period. Taking turns in offering their views, the Christian leaders agreed that Sfeir's public role can help ensure the election of the right presidential candidate and avert a disaster in the coming elections. March 14 leaders were in agreement that the Patriarch can have great influence, but he needs to be encouraged by the U.S. to speak boldly against a possible second government appointed by President Emile Lahoud. The leaders held slightly different opinions on whether the Patriarch should endorse a list of candidate names or give a list of names whose candidacies he would consider dangerous. The leaders were unanimous and passionate in describing the catastrophic outcome should the wrong candidate be elected. Several called it the last chance for Lebanon,s democracy. Edde explained that the cohesive front of the pro-democracy groups could break down if they agree to a compromise candidate. Mouawad described it as Syria and Tehran,s last attempt to get a hold on Lebanon. NO LIST OF NAMES NEEDED -------------- ¶4. (C) Former MP Lahoud said A/S Welch should tell the Patriarch to trust the March 14 leadership; therefore, there is no need for the Patriarch to endorse a list of candidates. Lebanese leaders who want a sovereign, new Lebanon and have a desire to build the nation and the structures are known, and those individuals should be considered. MP Franjieh was less clear on &no compromise candidate8 and offered what he termed a national compromise, but was unable to articulate exactly what that meant. Franjieh said the Patriarch should know that March 14 wants a national compromise but that still means no opposition candidate. ¶5. (C) All said that the Patriarch should continue to speak out on the quorum issue, in declaring that MPs of all parties should attend a Parliamentary session to elect a President. A/S Welch could strike home with the Patriarch by telling him that his principles will prevail if he is bold. Tell the Patriarch that he will not fail, Lahoud urged. VATICAN ENVOY SHOULD BE INVISIBLE -------------- ¶6. (C) As to why the Patriarch seems most reluctant to have a Vatican envoy visit, the March 14 leaders' consensus was that it would appear as if Sfeir,s boss had come to do Sfeir,s job, and thereby weaken Sfeir in his people's eyes. The Maronite church guards its autonomy from Rome, yet it is very important that the Vatican show support. Instead of an BEIRUT 00000706 002 OF 002 envoy, the Papal Nuncio should play a more visible, active role. His sphere of influence is with the bishops, monks, nuns and the church. TRIBUNAL A MUST, BRAMMERTZ REPORT -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Welch said he was confident that there will be a tribunal, and he senses that the opportunity is there. This calmed March 14 leaders, who agreed that if the tribunal can be established before the elections, the March 14 position would be enhanced. Several leaders stated they would like to see the next Brammertz report be more explicit, with names, before the elections. If the July report is issued without names and focused only on technical issues, that will weaken March 14. If the "files are open," then the opposition would be put in a very difficult situation. ¶8. (C) The March 14 Christians also expressed concern over their physical safety and that of all politicians, saying a report from Brammertz that included names would help balance the terror. A/S Welch said that while we are not interfering in the report, we understand that Brammertz is compiling the report more from a perspective of a prosecutor than an investigator. This assessment appeared to reassure the leaders. WHAT THE U.S. IS DOING WRONG -------------- ¶9. (C) More vocal than her colleagues, Mouawad said March 14 needed some victories, such as settling the issue of the Sheba'a Farms, and a change along the porous border between Syria and Lebanon. Such victories would help counter what Mouawad described as bad images, such as Speaker Pelosi,s visit to Syria. Mouawad underscored the importance of USG assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces. ¶10. (U) A/S Welch did not have the opportunity to clear this message. FELTMAN