LEBANON: AOUN SAME GOALS, BUT DIFFERENT MEANS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000690

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN SAME GOALS, BUT DIFFERENT MEANS TO
ACHIEVE THEM


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman. Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Former General Michel Aoun displayed to visiting
NEA A/S Welch a friendly, near collegial demeanor as he
outlined his plan for disarming Hizballah and assuring
Hizballah supporters in southern Lebanon that a legitimate
government can keep them safe from Israel. Welch said the
U.S. would not select presidential candidates,but could
oppose one if he or she were allied to a terrorist group or a
foreign power. Aoun explained his diffidence toward pushing
for the opening of Parliament and said he endorses the
special tribunal. End Summary.

AOUN DEFENDS RELATIONSHIP WITH HIZBALLH
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2. (C) In 5/16 meeting at the Embassy Residence, NEA
Assistant Secretary Welch and the Ambassador received Free
Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Michel Aoun, accompanied by
his advisor (and son-in-law) Gebran Bassil. Aoun responded
to A/S Welch's disappointment in the General,s close
relationship with Hizballah by giving a litany of mistakes
and violations committed by the Siniora government which have
led to the current impasse. He described what he called a
new initiative to solve the conflicting problems of the
current government. The new strategy seems to be a replay of
the old methods, and still depended on his continuing good
relationship with Hizballah. This relationship, he said,
will help Lebanon to solve its problems.

THREE STEPS TO PEACE
--------------


3. (SBU) Aoun,s plan is to integrate Hizballah into the
political power, obtain guarantees that Israel is not a
threat to Lebanon, and fix modalities for regional arms
control. A strong government should be formed, which
comprises all political parties in Lebanon, and then these
three issues should be dealt with in the order he presented
them. Establishing diplomatic relations with Syria will help
Lebanon understand cross-border traffic of both arms and
terrorists. Legislating controls on Hizballah,s arms needs
to be in parallel with settling the Sheba,a Farms issue.

ADMITS ISOLATING AND
CONFRONTING HIZBALLAH AN OPTION
--------------


4. (C) Aoun admitted that these "solutions" won,t be ready
before the presidential elections but the president has to
play a measurable role by working with the different parties
to obtain the needed guarantees. In the end, he said, if
Hizballah doesn,t abide by the "solutions," Hizballah will
have to be isolated and another "solution" found, which could
be confrontation.

HIZBALLAH CAN BE CONTROLLED IN STAGES
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5. (C) A/S Welch's reiterated the U.S. stance on Hizballah,
and added that it would be the U.S. position to oppose a
candidate for president who banked on a political alliance
with terrorists or an outside power. Aoun said Hizballah
represents one third of Lebanon's population, and thus cannot
be ignored or isolated, except for Hizballah's military wing.
Lebanon needs to make the non-military elements of Hizballah
feel that they are not under threat from Israel, and not a
target. When the government calls Hizballah terrorists, such
statements undermine Shi'a confidence that the state will
protect them. Such has been the situation for people in the
south for the last 30 years. The UN is in the south, and now
the LAF also, Aoun said, which helps reinforce Shi'a
sentiments that the Shi'a are fully part of Lebanon.


6. (C) Aoun added that Hizballah,s leaders are afraid that
if they disarm, they will go to jail. He gave an example of
rebels who traditionally feel that either they win or face
the guillotine. Hence the logic for giving Hizballah
guarantees rather than trying to coerce them which makes them
more intransigent. Aoun stressed the longstanding
Sunni)Shi,a conflict and his sensitivity to it. No one, he
said, wants a confrontation, referring to the late January

BEIRUT 00000690 002 OF 002


street and university incidents.

CATCH 22 ON THE TRIBUNAL AND PARLIAMENT
--------------


7. (C) Aoun claimed that he was the first to speak out in
favor of the special tribunal and said it will help stop
further killings. The Lebanese view of the judicial system
would be strengthened if people were accused and tried. When
challenged that he has been clear on his support of the
tribunal but not on UNSC Chapter VII implementation of the
tribunal, Aoun said he wanted to establish it through the
Lebanese process. A discussion among the political parties
is a necessary prerequisite, and Parliament has not been open
to enable these discussions. Now, such discussions are no
longer relevant. When asked if he knew of any objections to
the tribunal, since the UNSYG legal advisor reported that no
one in Lebanon had produced even one specific problem that
could be discussed and dealt with, Aoun replied that all his
MPs wanted the tribunal but decided not to discuss it since
the Parliament wasn,t open to have the discussions. When
questioned why he didn,t then ask for the Parliament to be
opened, he again said that if Parliament had been opened,
they would have voted in favor of it. Confronted on his
passivity and told that taking a decision would be better, he
declared his relations with the government were not very good
and that this was not the first time in Lebanon,s history
that Parliament never officially opened.


8. (U) This message has been cleared by A/S Welch.
FELTMAN