LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SUGGESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000650 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY IS LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: INDEPENDENT SHIA POLITICIAN SUGGESTS MARCH 14 AND ITS ALLIES REVIEW SHIA POLICY Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d ). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Independent Shia political leader Mohammad Baydoun in early May expressed frustration that the March 14 movement continues to approach the Shia community exclusively through Nabih Berri, whom Baydoun considers an unreliable partner. The main impediment to progress in Lebanon is Hizballah and Amal's exclusive control of the Shia community, Baydoun reasoned. Weak reconstruction efforts, however, have created an opportunity for March 14 to approach the Shia. To break Hizballah and Amal's control of the Shia community, March 14 and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, should fund independent Shia figures, stealing a page from the Iranians who are busy funding groups outside their own sect. Finally, Baydoun argued that supporting alternate Shia leaders could reduce arms smuggling. End Summary. MARCH 14 IS MAKING A SERIOUS ERROR IN ITS BLIND COURTSHIP OF BERRI -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Independent Shia politician Mohammad Abed al-Hamid Baydoun told Polstaff on May 7 that the pro-reform March 14 bloc should review its policies toward the Shia community in general, and Speaker Nabih Berri in particular. Baydoun expressed outrage that Berri is the principal reason parliament remains blocked, and yet March 14 is still trying to negotiate with him or lure him to their side. Baydoun explained his frustration with the policies recently enunciated by Future Movement MP Walid Eido and Prime Minister Siniora's advisor Mohammad Chatah. Baydoun believes March 14 lacks a clear strategy for the critical period following approval of the Special Tribunal, but still believes it can fight Hizballah by co-opting Nabih Berri. Baydoun also faulted March 14 for failing to engage with alternative figures in Lebanon's diverse Shia community and attempting to use the Shia Mufti of Tyre, Sayyed Ali Al-Amine, without providing him any political or financial support. RECONSTRUCTION MISTAKES OFFER OPPORTUNITY TO COURT SHIA -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Baydoun expressed his strong belief that the principal impediment to progress in Lebanon is the tight control Hizballah, and to a lesser extent Amal, exercise over the Shia community. He added that unless there is a genuine effort to break this monopoly, Lebanon will not resolve its internal conflicts. Baydoun argued that March 14 and its sponsors now have a real opportunity to break this monopoly because the compensation provided by Hizballah in south Lebanon has been confined to Hizballah and Amal supporters. According to Baydoun, this biased compensation scheme has created a strong wave of disenchantment and could be the catalyst for alternative Shia forces to emerge. GREATER FUNDING, ATTENTION NEEDED -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Baydoun argued that to take advantage of this opportunity, March 14 and its allies -- in particular Saudi Arabia through Saad Hariri -- should institute a new policy toward the Shia community and start disbursing money directly to Shia aereas neglected by Hizballah. He reasoned that such a policy would copy Iran's successful financing of groups within other confessions (e.g., Wiam Wahab in the Druze community, Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh in the Christian community, and Fathi Yakan in the Sunni community). ¶5. (SBU) Baydoun was also critical of Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Abdulaziz Khoja, arguing that Saudi Arabia should entrust "a more enlightened figure" to handle the critical Lebanese portfolio. He maintained that the Iranian Embassy in Damascus has approximately 70 people working on the Lebanon portfolio and that the team is managed directly by Iranian Ambassador Hassan Akhtari. ¶6. (C) Baydoun suggested March 14's international allies consider supporting former Hizballah Secretary General Subhi Tufayli. Baydoun said his internet research indicated that Tufayli is not officially designated a terrorist by the U.S., BEIRUT 00000650 002 OF 002 but asked us to confirm whether his research is accurate on this issue. (Note: Tufayli is indeed designated and remains wanted in Lebanon on murder charges. End Note.) Baydoun assessed that Tufayli is the only figure in the Biqa' who could pose a serious threat to Hassan Nasrallah, but only if he had financial support. According to Baydoun, if the Saudis would allocate some $50,000 per month to Tufayli, he could achieve a great deal and such support could eventually lead to a cessation of arms smuggling from Syria to Hizballah, as Tufayli's people could monitor and stop such activities. FELTMAN