LEBANON TRIBUNAL: CHATAH AND HAMADEH REVIEW DAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000638 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2027 TAGS: PREL PTER UNSC SY LE SUBJECT: LEBANON TRIBUNAL: CHATAH AND HAMADEH REVIEW DAYS AHEAD REF: USUN 349 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Mohamad Chatah, Senior Advisor to PM Siniora, told the Ambassador in a 5/5 meeting that, based on his consultations in New York (reftel),he was awaiting receipt of a draft UNSCR regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Siniora's letter to the UN will be finalized according to the form the proposed resolution will take. While Chatah said that Siniora will be unlikely to mention Chapter VII explicitly, Chatah understood from his New York meetings how important it was to show wary UNSC members that the tribunal is a Lebanese request, not a Franco-American plot. Chatah did not believe that, if tabled today, a tribunal resolution would receive 9 votes. In a 5/6 meeting, Minister Marwan Hamadeh reported on his discussions in Cairo with Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa. Hamadeh expressed relief that SIPDIS Moussa will travel to New York, not Beirut, since a new round of Arab League consultations in Lebanon would undoubtedly delay UN action on the tribunal. Instead of sending a second parliamentary letter to the UN, Hamadeh favored sending a small delegation of MPs to New York as early as mid-week to meet with UNSC PermReps and underscore that the tribunal is a Lebanese demand. Hamadeh noted that, with PM Siniora traveling to the UK and Portugal this week, the cabinet will probably meet on Friday, at which point he expected the cabinet to review and approve Siniora's letter to the UN. End summary. SINIORA'S LETTER TO BE FINALIZED ONCE DRAFT UNSCR IS SHARED -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with Mohamad Chatah on Saturday, 5/5, Chatah's first day back at the Grand Serail after his Washington and New York consultations. Chatah's version of the chronology of next steps regarding the establishment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon tracked with what is included in reftel. Chatah noted that he has started drafting the letter PM Siniora will send to the UN, but he awaits a copy of the draft UNSCR that the P-3 plan to table. Per the discussions in New York, Siniora's letter of request must correspond with what the draft UNSCR proposes be done. If the resolution declares the existing agreement to be brought into force, then Siniora will ask the UN to bring the agreement into force. Until Chatah knows exactly which approach the P-3 will take, he claimed to be unable to finish the letter. He understood from his New York meetings that he would receive a draft from the French by mid-week. (The Ambassador is seeing French Ambassador Emie today and will inquire about this.) The Ambassador urged Chatah not to surprise us but to share quietly the text with us in advance, which Chatah promised to do. ¶3. (C) Chatah thought it unlikely that Siniora would agree to request Chapter VII explicitly. But the New York meetings had persuaded Chatah that the letter had to be extremely strong, since so many of the UNSC PermReps either believed or purported to believe that the tribunal was a Franco-American plot against Lebanon. Siniora's letter has to be part of a strategy to persuade UNSC members that the tribunal is first and foremost a Lebanese initiative, a Lebanese priority. "We don't yet have nine votes," Chatah calculated, and Lebanese lobbying will help make the difference, and a Lebanese demand. Chatah said that he had been in touch with Saad Hariri, who Chatah believed would be an important ally in ensuring that Siniora's letter contained sufficiently strong language. Chatah then launched into a long, academic digression about a contradiction between "an agreement" and "a request for something of an explicitly binding nature." SYRIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENT SHADOWING CHATAH IN NEW YORK? -------------- ¶4. (C) As a side note, Chatah laughed that he had been trailed in New York by someone he could only assume was a Syrian intelligence officer. Chatah said that, soon after his arrival in New York, he noted a "classic Middle Eastern secret police guy" following him everywhere. "Just like in SIPDIS the movies," Chatah would sometimes turn around to look at the person, who would then "look up in the sky or at BEIRUT 00000638 002 OF 002 something else." But he was always there. HAMADEH REPORTS AMR MOUSSA TO TRAVEL TO NEW YORK, NOT BEIRUT -------------- ¶5. (C) On 5/6, the Ambassador met Minister of Communications Marwan Hamadeh, who had met with Arab League Secretary General the previous day in Cairo. Hamadeh said SIPDIS that the meeting was "mostly good news." Hamadeh told Moussa that he had heard that the Arab League was not supportive of Chapter VII establishment of the tribunal. Moussa responded that he had never told anyone he was opposed to Chapter VII, although he mused (in a throwback to the discussions about UNSCR 1701) that "chapter six and a half" may be easier to attain. Hamadeh urged Moussa not to mention that possibility, and Moussa agreed to drop the idea. Moussa told Hamadeh that The Syrians are "really afraid" of the tribunal. According to Hamadeh, Moussa is convinced that the Syrians, one way or another, are involved in the Hariri assassination. ¶6. (C) Hamadeh said that he wanted reassurances that Moussa was not coming back to Beirut anytime soon, as some UNSC members would certainly use a new round of Arab League diplomacy to delay action on the tribunal. Moussa said that he had no intentions of traveling to Lebanon. Instead, he would travel to New York this week for consultations with UNSYG Ban and then to go Brussels for meetings on the Arab peace initiative, followed by a stop at the Vatican (where, inter alia, Moussa will discuss Lebanon). He will travel to Beirut only after the tribunal is established under Chapter VII. At that point, he will urge the Lebanese to work toward a solution regarding the presidency. Going to Beirut now would be a waste of time, Moussa agreed, since it is clear that the Lebanese domestic process is completely blocked. Hamadeh said he and Moussa also discussed Lebanon's presidency at length but inconclusively. HAMADEH SAYS SAAD HARIRI WANTS CHAPTER VII REFERENCE -------------- ¶7. (C) The Ambassador reviewed with Hamadeh next steps regarding potential UNSC action on the tribunal. On Siniora's letter, Hamadeh said that Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri would ensure that the language was strong. Hamadeh thought there was still a possibility that Chapter VII would be mentioned in the text, since "Saad wants it." (The Ambassador sees Saad on Tuesday.) In terms of timing, Hamadeh noted that Siniora is traveling to the UK to attend his daughter's graduation and then to Portugal on an official trip this week. But Siniora has made informal inquiries about whether cabinet ministers are available for a cabinet meeting on Friday. Hamadeh believed that a Friday cabinet meeting would be the occasion for the ministers to review and approve Siniora's letter to the UN on the tribunal. As he had with Chatah, the Ambassador urged Hamadeh to help make sure that there were no surprises, that France and the U.S. could quietly review the draft in advance. INSTEAD OF SECOND PARLIAMENTARY LETTER, HAMADEH PROPOSES MP DELEGATION TO UN -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked Hamadeh about a second letter from MPs, something that Hamadeh himself had proposed earlier. Noting that some MPs are still balking at a second letter because they see it as simply a repeat of their earlier communication, Hamadeh said that he favored sending a parliamentary delegation to New York instead. A group of 5-6 MPs, perhaps under the leadership of Deputy Parliament Speaker Farid Makkari, could meet with all UNSC PermReps as a follow-up to their earlier letter. Hamadeh calculated that it would be harder for PermReps to say no to the MPs to their faces than to dismiss second letter. The Ambassador emphasized that time was of the essence. Hamadeh agreed, saying that the delegation could be announced on Tuesday (when March 14 MPs gather weekly at the Parliament Building to demand that the chamber be opened) and deployed that evening. If this was the approach chosen rather than a letter, the Ambassador urged Hamadeh to assemble a delegation consisting of MPs who already had U.S. visas. FELTMAN