LEBANON: MOHAMMAD SAMMAK WORRIED ABOUT EXTREMISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000590

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MOHAMMAD SAMMAK WORRIED ABOUT EXTREMISM
BUT PREDICTS POLITICAL CRISIS WILL END


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Lebanon is proud of its tradition as the only Arab
democracy in the Middle East; however democracy is not the
priority for the country - national unity is, according to
interfaith dialogue leader Mohammad Sammak. Sunni extremism,
especially in northern Lebanon, is growing and is being
financed by outside actors who use poverty and ignorance to
promote radicalism. Sammak called combating extremism a
"race against time" and lamented that his group, the Lebanese
Government, and even the Hariri family * whom he said was
still an influential force in the North * are all working
too slowly in quelling radicalism. Sammak discounted a two
government scenario in November and was confident a
compromise candidate for president will be found. He is
optimistic that the Special Tribunal will be approved by the
end of the month. End Summary.

LEBANON,S RELIGIOUS FREEDOM BOTH
A STRENGHTH AND WEAKNESS
--------------


2. (SBU) Secretary General of the Christian-Muslim Committee
for Dialogue Mohammad Sammak began an 16 April meeting with
Econoff by noting the interconnection between religious
groups and political life. Surrounded by pictures of
assassinated former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and religious
leaders such as Pope John Paul II, Lebanon,s Maronite
Patriarch Sfeir, and Mufti of Lebanon Sheik Qabbani, Sammak
read excerpts from a letter a French diplomat posted from
Lebanon in the late 1800s. The diplomat described relations
among Lebanon,s numerous sects, describing the complex links
between religion and politics. Sammak noted how little has
changed in Lebanon and how the country is a microcosm of the
Middle East.


3. (SBU) Sammak stated Lebanon was unique among Arab
countries in its freedom of religious practice. Other
countries may give lip service to religious tolerance, but
have restricted the practices of different groups, such as
the Shia in SAUDI ARABIA and the Copts in Egypt. This is one
of Lebanon,s strengths, he said, but at times it causes
tension and violence between the various groups.

NORTHERN SUNNI EXTREMISM GROWING
--------------


4. (C) Sunni extremism, especially in northern Lebanon, has
grown over the last two years and is being financed by
outside actors who use poverty and ignorance to promote
radicalism. Syria is using extremist groups and the
instability they create to make their own activities within
Lebanon easier. He said the Syrians are using Palestinian
camps in Sidon, Tyre, and the Bekaa Valley to promote
extremism, and to use as bases for the transfer of money and
weapons.


5. (C) Sammak said the best way to combat radicalism, which
historically was not indigenous to Lebanon, was through the
mosques. His group was trying to promote moderates who
preached cooperation and nonviolence. Sammak claimed to
have, but did not provide, names of extremists and muftis who
were promoting extremism and cultivating a culture of
suicide. Hesaid these people were being watched closely, and
the Lebanese intelligence services knew who they were.


6. (SBU) Sammak saw combating extremism as a race against
time. He lamented that his own group, the Lebanese
government, and even the Hariri family * which he said was
still an influential force in the North * are all working
too slowly to fight radicalism. He noted that much can be
done and there are avaailable resources, but there is no
plan. Lebanese leaders whom he knows well seem unsure about
how to address extremism.

DEMOCRACY NOT A PRIORITY
--------------


7. (SBU) Sammak said Lebanon is proud of its tradition as
the only Arab democracy in the Middle East, but democracy as
such is not the priority for the country or the government.
National unity should be the most important issue, and

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Lebanon,s democratic system should be used to promote that
unity. Sammak recalled the year 1989 when sectarian leaders
met to negotiate the Taif Accord to end the Civil War. At
that time, they reaffirmed Lebanon,s democratic principles.
Sammak noted that Islamic fundamentalism at the time was at
an all-time high, but despite radicalism, Lebanon,s Muslim,
Druze, and Christian leaders chose to elect a Christian
president. Muslims also agreed to a 50-50 Muslim-Christian
split in government institutions. This, he says, highlights
how democracy served to keep Lebanon,s national unity and
balance between among communities. When queried whether Taif
should be renegotiated given Lebanon,s changing
demographics, Sammak replied Taif does not need to be redone,
but that all its parts need to be implemented.

TRIBUNAL WILL BE ESTABLISHED;
POLITICAL STALEMATE WILL END
--------------


8. (SBU) Sammak had an absolute belief that the special
tribunal to try suspects in the assassination for former
Prime Minster Rafiq Hariri would be officially approved by
the UN by the end of the month. He stated that a Chapter VII
"imposition" will take the burden off the Lebanese, He did
not think there would be any violence from the opposition
because they would not be willing to "face down" the entire
international community. Sammak believed that after the
tribunal is approved, Hizballah will "relax" because Iran and
Syria will have seen that Hizballah did all it could to
forestall the tribunal. He noted Hizballah can then focus on
elections, forming a new government, and the presidency,
making the resolution of the political crisis easier.


9. (SBU) Sammak doubted that there will be a two-government
scenario in November, and that a compromise candidate for
president will be found. He said there are hundreds of
candidates because, "every Maronite believes he is
qualified." Sammak believed there will be a shuffle among
the Maronites of both sides and the Christians will start to
fight even more among themselves. This will need to a "new
situation" that could help break the deadlock. Besides, he
added, most of the leaders lived through the last dueling
governments and they recognize how expensive and destructive
that can be.

SAAD HARIRI GROWING UP
--------------


10. (SBU) Sammak served as a former advisor to the late
Rafiq Hariri and now helps his political heir, Saad Hariri,
navigate Lebanese politics. Sammak noted that Rafiq kept his
family away from Lebanese politics and even from business in
Lebanon. After Rafiq,s death, however, the Sunni community
was leaderless and expected the Hariri family to select
another member of the family to take up Rafiq,s mantle as a
symbol of their commitment to Rafiq,s political agenda.
Saad Hariri came into Lebanese politics unaware of who is who
or the details of the political game. As a result, he made
mistakes. But, according to Sammak, Saad recognized his
shortcomings and asked for help, keeping on many of his
father,s advisors. Saad has worked hard, learned quickly,
and is now playing a leadership role. He hates to be
characterized as only a Sunni leader, and thus he is
cooperating with the Christians, the Shia, and the Druze.


11. (SBU) Sammak believed Saad was not interested in taking
over the prime minister position in the near future, even if
President Lahoud is replaced in November. Moreover, Sammak
believed Hizballah had no intention of changing the
government, because this step would require a new government
policy statement. The current policy statement supports the
right of the resistance, and Hizballah knows a new government
would never agree to that again. Even though the group hates
Prime Minister Siniora, Hizballah would probably like to keep
the government largely the same. Sammak noted that
Hizballah, Aoun, and Speaker of Parliament Berri only want
the expansion to include Aoun supporters, not other leaders
such as Suleiman Franjieh or Talal Arslan.


12. (SBU) Sammak is open about his bias toward the Hariri
family but maintains good ties to other influential leaders.
He stated there is no such thing as a permanent coalition in
Lebanon. Upcoming issues such as the presidency, early
parliamentary elections, and regional changes strain any
coalition and could "unblock" the current crisis. Lebanon is
based on personality politics, and this causes continuous

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changes in alliances as leaders protect their own narrow
interests. Sammak noted that this trend bodes ill for
Christian leader Michel Aoun's chances at the presidency;
Sammak does not believe Hizballah or Berri would seriously
support Aoun for president. They would, however, nominate
him to prevent a strong March 14 candidate; both sides would
then have to select second or third choices who would be
weaker candidates.

FELTMAN