LEBANON: MODERATE REFORM MP BELIEVES CHAPTER VII

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 000524

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE IS SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MODERATE REFORM MP BELIEVES CHAPTER VII
IS NOW ONLY WAY TO ESTABLISH TRIBUNAL


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b).

ARGUMENT FOR CHAPTER VII
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1. (C) In a 4/12 meeting with emboff, pro-reform MP Robert
Ghanem suggested that Hizballah's Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah, acting under Syrian/Iranian orders, has altered
his strategy following the collapse of the erratic
Berri-Hariri talks. Ghanem maintained that once it became
clear that Saad Hariri was not going to compromise on either
the "blocking minority" in the cabinet or the gutting of the
Special Tribunal, the Syrians then shifted to a waiting game.
Ghanem, a dark-horse candidate for the presidency (but more
likely to remain an influential progressive in parliament),
thinks that the Syrians are confident that time is on their
side -- in their view, sooner or later the Siniora government
will leave office and the tribunal will disappear with it.


2. (C) Ghanem reported that he had hoped a Berri-Hariri
compromise would have been reached with the support of SAUDI
Arabia, and a tacit "no objection" stance from Iran. But
based on discussions with numerous figures in both March 14th
and the opposition, he now believes that Syria has been able
to derail any Berri-Hariri accord. As a result, he sees
Chapter VII as the only way to achieve the tribunal.
Furthermore, he argued that preparations for a Chapter VII
resolution will not persuade the Syrians to relent and
perhaps seek a compromise, because Bashar al-Asad appears
confident that there are not enough votes in the Security
Council to pass a Chapter VII resolution.


3. (C) Ghanem considers Chapter VII a risky action, because
if the measure fails in the Council, the anti-reform forces
of Hizballah and Michel Aoun will look like winners in the
now two-year old struggle for the future of Lebanon. Ghanem
cautioned that the country's citizens are exhausted by the
struggle and only two things can now turn the tide:
establishment of the tribunal by the international community,
or the replacement of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud with
a reform, or at least neutral, candidate.


4. (C) Ghanem worried that Syrian security operatives may
strike at the pro-reform leaders in the event of a successful
Security Council vote, but he still insisted that Chapter VII
was worth the risk. Without Chapter VII, and with the
continued enforced recess of parliament by pro-Syrian Speaker
Nabih Berri and his Hizballah allies, the tribunal concept
would gradually, but almost assuredly, recede from the scene.

LEBANON'S TROUBLED PRESIDENCY
--------------


5. (C) Concerning the upcoming election for Lebanon's
presidency, scheduled for late November, MP Ghanem said that
contrary to the claims of many March 14th politicians, he is
convinced that a two-thirds vote is necessary to elect the
new chief executive. Without a two-thirds vote, any
candidate would not be considered legitimate by an
uncomfortably large segment of the electorate. Although it
would be difficult, he argued, the best chance to elect a
unifying figure, who would fight for Lebanon's sovereignty,
is to peel away enough deputies from the March 8-Aoun
alliance so that a two-thirds majority can be achieved.
Ghanem insisted there are delegates in the March 8-Aoun
alliance who could be persuaded to join the pro-reform
majority, but only if an acceptable candidate could be found.
And it was important to begin these discreet inquiries now,
before the approach of the November deadline ratchets up
sectarian tensions.
FELTMAN