LEBANON: SPEAKER PELOSI MEETS WITH MP SAAD HARIRI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000477

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO FOR ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SPEAKER PELOSI MEETS WITH MP SAAD HARIRI


Classified By: Charge Christopher Murray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) Saad Hariri told CODEL Pelosi that progress in the
region, and particularly in Lebanon, requires that the
international community take a firm and united stand on Syria
and Iran. The Syrian regime only understands force, and is
becoming emboldened by the increased number of visitors to
Syria. The Arab Summit's resurrection of its 2002 peace plan
is now distinguished by pan-Islamic support beyond the Arab
world, including support from Pakistan, Malaysia, and
Indonesia. For all Arab countries, Hariri said, the Iranian
nuclear program is a definite "no." Speaker Pelosi assured
Hariri that she and her delegation would take a firm stance
with the Syrians against terrorism. "All roads lead to
Damascus," she said, and the Syrians must end their support
for Hizballah, Hamas, and other terrorist groups. End
Summary.

SYRIA RESPONDS ONLY TO SHOWS OF FORCE
--------------


2. (C) Saad Hariri, Member of Parliament and leader of the
Mustaqbal party, met for over an hour on April 2 with CODEL
Pelosi. The CODEL was led by Speaker of the House of
Representatives Nancy Pelosi (CA); and comprised
Representatives Tom Lantos (CA),Henry Waxman (CA),Nick
Rahall (WV),David Hobson (OH),Louise Slaughter (NY),Keith
Ellison (MN). The Charge and Econoff (notetaker) accompanied
the CODEL.


3. (C) Hariri went to great lengths to warn the group
against allowing the Syrian regime to believe that the USG
stance towards Syria has softened in any way. Hariri said
that "somewhere in the Syrian regime they feel emboldened,"
and that Syrian opposition to a democratic Lebanon goes
beyond simple opposition to the Special Tribunal. He
believed that Syria feels threatened by "actual democracy."
Every time that the Siniora government has, with Hariri's
full support, approached Syria about engagement, the Lebanese
offers have been rebuffed. The assassinations, which he
blames squarely on Syria, have not stopped. With the
Tribunal approaching, Prime Minister Siniora will face more
difficult times.


4. (C) Hariri pointed out that Syria's Bashar al-Asad and
Jordan's King Abdullah had assumed power from their fathers
at the same time. Both had all doors open to them. Asad
chose Iran and "shut the doors." Pressing his point
repeatedly, Hariri said that Syria would not give in on any
issues unless the entire world sided against them, as it did
after the Cedar Revolution. He said that as a practical
matter, the issue of the Speical Tribunal is in the hands of
Syria and Iran, not in the hands of Lebanese politicians.
The majority MPs would like to convene parliament and vote on
the Tribunal, and would have a clear majority, but will not
be able to do so because of "orders from Syria." The
unspoken point was that President of the Parliament Nabih
Berri refuses to convene the Parliament on orders from Syria;
there is little the majority-led Cabinet can do to force his
hand. Hariri urged the CODEL to ask Berri why he will not
convene the Parliament. Hariri pointed out that Syria has
gone as far as saying that it would not accept anything but a
blocking third for the opposition in any new Lebanese
government, a clear indication of Syrian unwillingness to
accept Lebanese sovereignty. For these reasons, only a firm
and united stand against Syria will be effective.


5. (C) In a pointed message to the CODEL, Hariri pointed out
that so many delegations -- U.S. and others -- have gone to
Syria recently that Damascus sees these visit as a weakness
and has become bolder. In the past, Syria was warned to
leave former PM Hariri alone, and it did not do so. Warned
not to extend President Lahoud's mandate, it did so anyway.
Syria will always do what it wants; the only two notable
exceptions were after the Cedar Revolution, when it was
forced to withdraw from Lebanon, and when the Turkish
government massed troops at the border and demanded the
turnover of PKK terrorist leader Abdallah Ocalan. with the
Turkish soldiers visible from Syrian territory, Syria caved
in well before Turkey's forty-eight hour deadline. Hariri
emphasized repeatedly that Syria only responds to a show of
strength, and not to warnings. Hariri asked rhetorically, if
the USG is willing to engage with Syria, a regime which

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supports terrorism, then why not with Hamas, Hizballah or
al-Qaeda?


6. (C) Speaker Pelosi firmly rebutted any hint that the
CODEL was less than wary about Syria, its intentions, and its
tactics. She stressed that the CODEL was traveling to
Damascus to hold the Syrian regime accountable for its
actions. "All roads lead to Damascus," she said, in
reference to support for Hizballah, Hamas, and other
terrorist groups. In a later question from Hariri about the
Syria Accountability Act, Representative Lantos replied that
even tougher measures were now under serious consideration in
the Congress.

SAUDI PEACE PROPOSAL
--------------


7. (C) Hariri indicated that he did not foresee negotiations
between Saudi Arabia and Israel any time soon, despite the
offer which came from the Saudis out of the Arab Summit.
However, he said that Syria was "ready for peace with Israel
tomorrow if the (Syrian) regime would be safe." He also
believes that Israel views Syria as a "good neighbor," given
the 30 year absence of any Syrian attacks against the
occupied Golan Heights. Hariri, however, felt that the most
important factor of this past month's Arab Summit proposal
was that it has now become pan-Islamic, rather than solely an
Arab initiative. Calling this a huge breakthrough, Hariri
said this means that anyone who would fight with Israel,
without Arab agreement, would henceforth be breaking any
peace that is brokered on the basis of the Arab Summit
proposal. Hariri, while pointing out that the USG could
assist in bringing Israel and Saudi Arabia together,
advocated that the U.S. stand aside while Egypt and Saudi
Arabia attempt to bring Hamas to the table, and pull it away
from Iranian influence.

NEXT STEPS IN POLITICAL CRISIS
--------------


8. (C) Hariri seemed convinced that the GOL and the security
forces are making progress in the fight against extremists in
Lebanon, especially those coming from Syria and Iran to
infiltrate Palestinian organizations. He also defended the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),saying that it has done a
"pretty good job" and can't be expected to "do magic." He
called it the "army of the people," and said that it should
not be mired in the political crisis. The LAF needs to be
emboldened and armed, which is happening, thanks to the
Saudis and the UAE, who are financing improvements for the
LAF and the Internal Security Forces. Reconstruction
efforts, which will "never be enough," are open to criticism
because the damage was limited to Shiite homes, and Hizballah
has done a good job marketing its own efforts in
reconstruction. Nevertheless Shia criticism of Hizballah
efforts has been growing and should be encouraged.


9. (C) In response to a question on the degree of continued
Syrian intelligence infiltration in Lebanon, Hariri replied
that of the 200-300,000 Syrian workers in Lebanon, from five
to ten percent could be expected to be working for Syrian
intelligence.


10. (C) Returning to the theme of pan-Islamic support for the
Lebanese majority, Hariri likened the current situation to
the "last 100 meters of a race" with the Lebanese opposition.
The majority is in a much better position because of Islamic
and Arab support. He indicated that majority MPs would be
going again to the Parliament tomorrow to attempt to get
Speaker Berri to open a new session and move ahead on
legislation. He said "tomorrow is an important day," but he
gave no indication that he believed it would be a successful
day.


11. (U) CODEL Pelosi departed post prior to clearing this
message.
MURRAY