LEBANON: HARIRI ENCOURAGED BY SUMMIT; SEEKS HELP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000471

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO:ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2017
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI ENCOURAGED BY SUMMIT; SEEKS HELP
ON PARLIAMENT, TRIBUNAL, SMUGGLING


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: 1.4 (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Mustaqbal Party leader Saad Hariri believes statements
made at the Arab Summit on the opening day of March 28 were
helpful to the March 14 cause, as were private discussions
between the Saudis and Syrian President Asad. Hariri was
unaware of the applicability of UNSCR 1747 on Lebanon, but
gave some recommendations as to how to use the Resolution to
help rid the country of Syrian influence. Hariri will ask
upcoming visitors -- UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, German
Chancellor Merkel and CODEL Pelosi -- to push Speaker Berri
to convene the Chamber of Deputies. As for the dialogue with
Berri, Hariri said he had gone as far as offering three
opposition-aligned candidates to take the place of the
"independent" minister in a 19 10 1 cabinet formula, but that
Berri had remained intransigent. Hariri expects Syria to
resume using violence in an attempt to dissuade Lebanon from
establishing the international tribunal. He asked the USG to
talk up the chances of a Chapter VII Resolution on the
tribunal as a negotiating tactic; he also believes the French
are working to line up Russian support for Chapter VII.
Hariri claimed to be working with Palestinian groups to
control Fatah al-Islam, and expressed his suspicions of LAF
G-2 Commander Georges Khoury. End Summary.

A GOOD SUMMIT
--------------


2. (SBU) The Ambassador called on Mustaqbal Party leader Saad
Hariri March 28 at the Hariri residence in Qureitem. Former
MP and Hariri advisor Ghattas Khoury attended the meeting, as
did Polchief (notetaker). Hariri was in an upbeat and
confident mood after the opening day events at the Arab
Summit in Riyadh. He and Khoury highlighted for us in
particular the helpful statement of UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon, who praised Prime Minister Siniora's "impressive
leadership" and urged the international community to support
"his democratically elected government." Also helpful were
King Abdullah's condemnation of the opposition for "turning
Beirut's streets into hotels" through its ongoing "sit-in."
According to Hariri, the remarks had "punched around"
President Lahoud at the Summit, but that the dour Lahoud
didn't care.


3. (C) Joking about "America's friends," Hariri also noted
that Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi condemned the attempt to
establish an international tribunal to investigate and
prosecute the assassination of his father Rafiq Hariri and
other recent political violence in Lebanon. Hariri said that
Qaddafi had decided to side with Syria and its allies in
Lebanon, including Baathists like the Syrian Social
Nationalist Party (whose aims include uniting the Fertile
Crescent, including Lebanon, under a single government headed
by Damascus). The Ambassador noted the irony that Speaker
Nabih Berri's side in the Lebanese political crisis is now
supported by Qaddafi; like many Lebanese Shia, Berri blames
Qaddafi for the presumed 1978 murder of their spiritual
leader Sayyid Moussa Sadr.


4. (C) Egypt came out strongly in favor of a return to the
original Arab League proposal for Lebanon, based on a 19 10 1
cabinet formula, and pushed the Summit to endorse that
proposal. Cairo is "fed up with Asad's lies," Hariri said.
Hariri took the opportunity to chide the USG for "scaring"
Mubarak by pushing aggressively for reform in Egypt, but not
in Syria, as he put it. When Mubarak is worried about losing
his grip on power, he becomes less confrontational with Syria
and more likely to "protect" Asad.

SAUDI-SYRIA
--------------


5. (C) Hariri reported that Prime Minister Siniora was
received March 27 by Abdullah, who asked Siniora what he
should ask of SARG President Asad during their meeting
scheduled for later that day. Siniora asked the King to
press Syria on arms smuggling first and foremost; the
tribunal; delineation of the borders of the Shebaa Farms;
diplomatic relations between Damascus and Beirut; and

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political violence in Lebanon. Hariri did not tell us
whether the King raised these issues with Asad during his
two-hour meeting later, but claimed that Asad spent much of
the meeting apologizing to the King for heaping scorn on him
and other Arab leaders last year for their stance on the
Israeli-Hizballah War. Nevertheless, the King was
unconvinced by Asad's apology, and insiders do not expect a
Saudi-Syrian reconciliation, according to Hariri. (Note:
Lebanon's pro-Syrian press is trumpeting just such a
reconciliation. End note.)


6. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the rumored Saudi
strategy of driving a wedge between Iran and Syria is
realistic. Hariri said that under the Saudi strategy, Iran
would one day have to choose whether it wishes to defend
Syria or Hizballah. Both would be bad for Lebanon, the
Ambassador noted. Meanwhile, Hariri continued, Hizballah is
sending more teams to Iran for military training. According
to Sayyid Ali al-Amin, the anti-Hizballah Mufti of Tyre,
Hizballah is carrying out these activities in the open.
Sooner or later, Hariri predicted, there will be a conflict
either within Lebanon or with Israel, and "everyone will
lose."

UNSCR 1747
--------------


7. (C) When asked, Hariri admitted that like most Lebanese he
had not focused on the recently-passed UN Security Council
Resolution 1747 laying out additional sanctions on Iran. The
Ambassador noted that the Resolution also prohibits Iran from
exporting weapons, and as a Chapter VII Resolution imposes a
legally binding obligation on member states to stop Iranian
weapons exports. A Chapter VII Resolution targeting
Hizballah is quite an achievement, and Lebanese leaders
should raise the profile of this important development.
Hariri suggested the USG should use satellite imagery to
catch Iran and Syria in the act of smuggling weapons to
Hizballah, and that the international community should push
the UN to send a letter warning Damascus on its activities to
aid Hizballah.

PARLIAMENT
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador noted that, to avoid complicating
Hariri's talks with Berri, we have been relatively quiet on
the issue of Nabih Berri's refusal to convene the Chamber of
Deputies in advance of the Summit. Nodding in approval,
Hariri said he would ask UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to
press Berri on this issue when Ban comes to visit after the
Summit, and that he would ask German Chancellor Merkel and
House Speaker Pelosi to press Berri also during their visits.
Hariri suggested that the USG adopt a position linking the
closure of the Chamber to Syrian influence; "There are some
in Syria who are trying to make the Chamber theirs." The
Ambassador agreed and noted that even after the passage of
UNSCR 1559, which demands a halt to Syrian meddling in
Lebanon's parliament, Syria is still interfering.

BERRI DIALOGUE
--------------


9. (C) Hariri confirmed that he would see Speaker Berri after
the Summit, but he expressed frustration at odds with the
public optimism he and Berri had displayed during the last
two weeks. He told us he had gone as far as he could in
trying to sell Berri on the 19 10 1 formula, even offering
such figures as former MP Tamam Salam, Jean Obeid (a
once-pro-Syrian former Foreign Minister with ties to Nazek
Hariri),and Assam Araji, a Sunni MP from Elie Skaff's Zahle
Bloc. Finally, while he claimed they did not discuss
presidential candidates in specific, Hariri told us that
Berri warned him, "I didn't let your father choose a
president; what makes you think I will let you?"


10. (C) Against the background of their stalled dialogue,
Hariri urged us to tell Berri that his bet on Iran is a
mistake, and that March 14 possesses strong allies too. He
also urged us to give Berri the impression that a Chapter VII
Resolution to establish the tribunal is a done deal, to put
pressure on the Speaker to compromise on its establishment in

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Lebanon.

USING VIOLENCE TO STOP THE TRIBUNAL
--------------


11. (C) "Our information from the Syrian side," Hariri
continued, is that Damascus will not accept the tribunal
under any circumstances. Syria will "escalate with
assassinations" and buy more time to forestall the court's
establishment. Hariri confirmed that the Summit time is a
dangerous one that could hold assassinations, because
Damascus can more easily appear innocent in the midst of
major world and regional events. Khoury noted that Damascus
operates on this principle and reminded us that journalist
Samir Kassir had been murdered just after the arrival of
German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis.


12. (C) Nevertheless, Hariri reported, President Chirac had
assured him the tribunal would be enacted by Chapter VII and
had told Russian President Putin the tribunal "must happen."
Chirac will soon visit Putin with this message, Hariri
claimed. Meanwhile, Hariri said he plans to send the
tribunal documents to the Chamber of Deputies, making a
formal demand for its passage, this week.

OTHER SECURITY ISSUES
--------------


13. (C) On Fatah al-Islam, accused of organizing the Ain Alaq
bombings in February, Hariri said that other Palestinian
groups with which he is close are helping to solve the
problem. Finally, Hariri expressed skepticism about Georges
Khoury, head of Lebanese Armed Forces intelligence. He has a
large and powerful institution but is doing nothing with it,
he noted. (Note: Other March 14 leaders have made the same
observation and believe that Khoury is eager to advance his
long-shot presidential ambitions by adopting the same
"neutral" pose that kept his Commander, General Sleiman, from
intervening against opposition protesters in January. End
Note.)
FELTMAN