LEBANON: MARCH 14 TURNS DOWN LATEST FRENCH EFFORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 002007 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER FR LE QA SY UNSC SUBJECT: LEBANON: MARCH 14 TURNS DOWN LATEST FRENCH EFFORT Classified By: CDA William Grant for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Parliament Majority Leader Saad Hariri's advisor Ghattas Khoury, explained to CDA and Poloff that the latest French proposal on solving the political crisis in Lebanon -- based on a 15-13-2 cabinet -- would be rejected by the majority. Khoury referred to the initiative as a Syrian proposal more than a French one and urged the USG to put more pressure on the Syrians, either bilaterally or through the UN, to stop interfering in Lebanon. Khoury also said the majority was fed up negotiating with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. End Summary. MARCH 14 PRESENTS COUNTER PROPOSAL TO FRENCH -------------- ¶2. (C) Charge and Poloff met with Hariri advisor Ghattas Khoury at Khoury's office in Qoreitem on December 28. Khoury responded to questions on the most recent French proposal to the political crisis which advocates March 14 accepting a 15-13-2 cabinet division (i.e., in a 30-seat cabinet, 15 for the majority led by the March 14 bloc, 13 for the opposition and 2 for the president to choose). Khoury said March 14 would not accept the new proposal. ¶3. (C) March 14 planned to respond to the French proposal with its own four step solution. The steps are: one, election of a president, with necessary constitutional amendments carried out through the Siniora cabinet. Two, following that, the president chooses the prime minister through the established process. Three, the president then leads a consultative process to agree on a program for the new government. Four, the process of distributing seats in a 30-seat cabinet based in some way on representation of various blocs in the parliament. ¶4. (C) Khoury said that the key issue for March 14 in the distribution of seats is that the opposition receive 10 seats or less in order to prevent it from having a blocking one-third minority, and March 14 receives a simple majority of seats. The new cabinet and the parliament could address the issue of a fair and equitable reform of the election law, Khoury said. Khoury noted that the key March 14 leaders, Hariri, Jumblatt, Gemayel and Geagea, had agreed with this response to the latest French proposal. FRENCH EFFORTS DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD -------------- ¶5. (C) Khoury expressed his dissatisfaction with France. He said that France's most recent initiative was a Syrian proposal that the French just forwarded to March 14. "the French are killing March 14 with their initiatives and proposals" he said. He suggested that the French were being receptive to the Syrians at the behest of Qatar, explaining that the Qataris just completed a USD 17 billion deal with the French to purchase a number of Airbus airplanes, and that the Qataris are using leverage with the French to push for greater cooperation with Syria. He noted, though, that French FM Bernard Kouchner was fed up with Syria and the efforts by the French presidency to resolve the crisis in Lebanon. Khoury suggested that the U.S. do more to prevent any new French initiatives from materializing. U.S. CAN PUT TOUGHER SANCTIONS ON SYRIA -------------- ¶6. (C) Khoury said the U.S. should initiate tougher punitive actions against Syrian officials. We should designate Rami Makhlouf, a financial advisor to Syrian President Bashir al-Assad. Khoury said that Makhlouf stole USD 40 million from the Syrian government and laundered the money through telecommunications companies in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar. ¶7. (C) Khoury also said that the U.S. should sanction Syria for its violations of UNSCR 1559 and UNSCR 1701. He added that the U.S. should make a case against Syria in the UN and could call for sanctions against Syria in the form of an oil embargo. That, in Khoury's view, would "bring the Syrians to their knees within a week" and would encourage the Syrians to BEIRUT 00002007 002 OF 002 become more cooperative with the international community on finding a solution to the current political impasse in Lebanon. Through the UN and with USG mechanisms, such as the Syrian Accountability Act of 2003, the U.S. could find a way to sanction the government of Syria. DISTRUSTFUL OF BERRI -------------- ¶8. (C) Khoury added that March 14 was finished negotiating with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. According to Khoury, Berri's solutions to elect a president are now being seen by March 14 as disingenuous. Khoury said it was outrageous for a speaker of parliament to ignore the majority of members in parliament and now "the majority will ignore him." Khoury noted, though, that the election of a president was unlikely to occur without going through parliament, and therefore going through Berri. (Note: Under the current situation, a president could be elected if the cabinet decided to execute the current presidential powers given to it under the constitution during this crisis. However, all sides agree that this option was unlikely. End Note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Khoury was pessimistic about any breakthrough on the election of a president before March 2008. Parliament does not operate in legislative session January 1-March 16, but can meet for an electoral session. Khoury said that unless something occurs to change Syrian or Iranian policy towards Lebanon, no breakthrough should be expected in the short-term. End Comment. FELTMAN