LEBANON: NEA A/S WELCH AND DAPNSA ABRAMS URGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001978

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SY LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: NEA A/S WELCH AND DAPNSA ABRAMS URGE
MARCH 14 CHRISTIAN UNITY


Classified By: Ambassador William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel
hosted a December 19 luncheon for visiting NEA Assistant
Secretary David Welch and Deputy Assistant to the President

SIPDIS
and Deputy National Security Advisor (DAPNSA) Elliott Abrams,
attended by a strong showing of March 14 Christian leaders or
their representatives. Gemayel met separately with Welch and
Abrams to make an appeal for "support with muscles" from the
U.S. to counter Iranian and Syrian support to the opposition.
Gemayel also said that he has not yet accepted PM Siniora's
invitation that he join the cabinet to replace his slain son
Pierre; he is considering designating someone from his party
instead. Welch and Abrams assured Gemayel and the larger
group of unfaltering U.S. support for Lebanon and called for
March 14 unity, discipline, and purpose.


2. (C) Offering different opinions for how to proceed, most
of the group remained committed to electing Lebanese Armed
Forces Commander Michel Sleiman as president by December 31.
Participants appealed for stronger U.S. support and explored
how the U.S. can pressure Syria further. If the presidential
vacuum persists after December 31, they would weigh their
options, focusing on bolstering Prime Minister Fouad
Siniora's government, and tabling electing a president with a
half plus one majority as a "last resort option." End
summary.

GEMAYEL HOSTS KEY MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS
--------------


3. (C) Former President and Phalange leader Amine Gemayel
hosted a luncheon for visiting NEA Assistant Secretary David
Welch and Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy
National Security Advisor (DAPNSA) Elliott Abrams on December
19, attended by all of the Christian leaders of March 14 or
their representatives. Attendees included: Nassib Lahoud,
Boutros Harb, Dory Chamoun, Ghattas Khoury (representing
majority leader Saad Hariri),Antoine Zahara and Elie Khoury
(representing Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea),Michel
Mouawad (representing his mother MP Nayla Mouawad),Carlos
Edde, Michel Khoury, Samir Franjieh, Bishop Elias Audi, Fares
Souaid, and Michel Khattaf. Charge Bill Grant, Pol/Econ
Chief, and PolStaff were also present.

ONE-ON-ONE: GEMAYEL NAMES
AOUN AND BERRI AS OBSTRUCTIONISTS
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4. (C) Gemayel opened the afternoon with a tete-a-tete with
Welch, Abrams, and Charge. Gemayel wanted to hear about the
U.S. delegation's earlier meeting with Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri, and used the opportunity to denounce Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun's obstructionist
tendencies. Welch assured Gemayel that the U.S. supports the
majority and has issues with Aoun because of his Memorandum
of Understanding with Hizballah, adding that while the U.S.
does not isolate Aoun (the Ambassador meets with him),A/S
Welch will not meet Aoun or contact him during this trip.
Berri also is obstructing the elections, Gemayel continued,
noting that Berri's position has changed, since he used to
say that it is the responsibility of the majority to name the
president.

MARCH 14 NEEDS "SUPPORT WITH MUSCLES"
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5. (C) Arguing that March 14 has acted as a responsible
alliance should, Gemayel said its members have done their
homework by committing to shared principles and have paid a
heavy price (referring to the series of assassinations
targeted at March 14 politicians). He added that March 14
retreated from its desire to elect Nassib Lahoud or Boutros
Harb as president, then retreated again by agreeing on
Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman and the
requisite constitutional amendment. Citing past
accomplishments, such as the Special Tribunal to investigate
former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's assassination and Syrian
withdrawal from Lebanon, Gemayel lamented March 14's current
backtracking, saying it is costing them public support.


6. (C) In spite of our labors, he continued, we still face
opposition from Hizballah, which has financial, military, and

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political support from Iran, and political support from
Syria. Hizballah can provoke street fighting and can topple
Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government through more
assassinations. He concluded, "We don't feel the same
support from the free world (singling out the U.S., France,
and the Arab states). We need support with muscles."
Without such support, Gemayel warned, the Iranians will take
over, starting with the presidency and then with legislative
elections in spring 2009. The presidency is critical,
appealed Gemayel, and if March 14 doesn't succeed, it will
lose everything, in particular the UN Security Council
resolutions.

WELCH AND ABRAMS
ASSERT UNFALTERING U.S. SUPPORT
--------------


7. (C) A/S Welch assured Gemayel that the U.S. considers
Lebanon a "good friend," and that it does not have to fear
losing U.S. support. Noting that there already is a division
in the Maronite community, with Aoun on one side and those
from March 14 gathered at the lunch on the other, Welch
implored March 14 to act with unity, discipline, and purpose.
He added that the U.S. will not make decisions for March 14;
it is entirely their choice how to proceed.


8. (C) Transitioning into the larger meeting, Welch told the
March 14 Christian participants that the U.S. regards Lebanon
as a symbol of freedom, pluralism, and opportunity, in a
region plagued by many troubles. Repeating his message of
support, Welch added that Lebanon's identity is defined in
part by the role of the Maronite community, and, given that
the highest office is designated for the Maronites, the
presidential election impasse must be resolved immediately.


9. (C) Welch said the U.S. does not harbor any illusions
about who is obstructing the election. DAPNSA Abrams noted
he saw fewer and fewer illusions at the Ministerial on
Lebanon in Paris the day before, adding that the French had
learned the hard way about making a deal with Syria. Abrams
reiterated U.S. support, saying that the fate of the
Christian community is of particular importance to the U.S.
and to the future of Lebanon.

DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
SLEIMAN'S CANDIDACY
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10. (C) The first to speak in the group meeting, former MP
Nassib Lahoud said March 14 is committed to electing a new
president and is serious in its support for Sleiman. March
14 paid a price in supporting Sleiman, remarked Lahoud, but
will pay a bigger price if it abandons Sleiman now. Adding
that the opposition believes time is on its side, Lahoud
suggested reversing this perception, forcing the opposition
to take action now. Former MP Fares Souaid mentioned that
their decision to elect Sleiman secured army support for
March 14.


11. (C) Carlos Edde, leader of the National Bloc and
self-proclaimed "dissident voice" in the group, objected,
saying, "One day we woke up and Syria's first choice all of
the sudden became March 14's first choice." He did not
approve of politicizing the army and making it choose between
the majority and opposition, suggesting that the election of
Sleiman sends the message to future army commanders that
they, too, could be president.

U.S. SUPPORT CAN LEVEL
THE PLAYING FIELD
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12. (C) MP Boutros Harb countered that the issue is not the
candidate, but instead Hizballah's and Syria's long term goal
to change the Taif agreement. Acknowledging U.S. support, he
asserted that it is no match for Iranian and Syrian backing
and there is an imbalance in the struggle between the
majority and the opposition. Dory Chamoun, head of National
Liberal Party, suggested that the U.S. treat Syria as a
renegade state and take actions such as an air blockade to
cripple Syria. Believing that discussions on passing UN
resolutions and imposing sanctions can have a large impact
because Syria fears the unknown (even if no action is taken),
Ghattas Khoury, advisor to Saad Hariri, advocated raising the
level of discourse on sanctions.


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13. (C) Highlighting U.S. military aid to Lebanon and noting
that U.S. economic sanctions against Syria are unable to have
a harsh impact, Abrams said that the Gulf could contribute
financial support to Lebanon and could diminish the flow of
money to Syria. He remarked that EU countries could impose
formidable sanctions, but that the U.S. has not yet been able
to convince them to take action. Absent UN Security Council
resolutions, he said, it is difficult to get the Europeans on
board. A/S Welch added that the U.S. lacks the carrots and
sticks needed to pressure Syria.

DIFFERING VIEWS IN MARCH 14
--------------


14. (C) Gemayel pointed out that March 14 will face new
threats, not only more assassinations, but also civil
disobedience, after December 31, when the legislative session
recesses until mid-March. The reaction will be the same to
either electing a president with a half plus one majority or
to bolstering the Siniora government, Antoine Zahara
predicted, and pressed the participants to try to elect a
president by December 31. Souaid submitted that March 14
cannot elect a president with a half plus one majority
without international support. In an attempt to refocus the
discussion on how to pressure Syria, Ghattas Khoury deemed
electing a president with a half plus one majority a "last
resort option," and reminded everyone that electing Sleiman
was still the priority. Welch observed that there was not
100 percent agreement among March 14 on the course of action.

BOLSTERING THE SINIORA GOVERNMENT
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15. (C) Raising the possibility that Sleiman could renounce
his candidacy and March 14 would be unable to elect him as
president, Nassib Lahoud explored how the Siniora government
should proceed. He advocated that the government make minor,
popular decisions for the public good, and refrain from
anything controversial; for example, he recommended giving
bonuses to the army but not levying any taxes or raising
prices. The opposition will use any excuse to provoke social
unrest, he warned. Drawing attention to the government's
financial issues, Lahoud indicated the need for the Saudi
government to deposit billions of dollars into the Siniora
government's account. Welch agreed these measures were
necessary, but not sufficient, and March 14 needs to send the
message that a president must be elected now.

IF VACUUM PERSISTS,
GOVERNMENT SHOULD ACT
--------------


16. (C) Michel Mouawad, son of MP and Social Affairs Minister
Nayla Mouawad, recommended implementing an initiative to
resolve an issue with displaced Christians from the civil war
residing in Mount Lebanon. The participants briefly
mentioned other possible initiatives, including securing
approval to open a second branch of the Lebanese University.
Such initiatives discussed aimed at strengthening the image
of the government.

APPRECIATION FOR U.S. INVOLVEMENT
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17. (C) Ghattas Khoury angrily denounced French efforts,
saying "We are not Bulgarian nurses!" and expressed
appreciation for the high-level U.S. visit. He added that
Syrian president Bashar Assad is choosing Lebanon's president
"because of the stupid French initiative that didn't have
March 14 agreement."


18. (U) This cable has not been cleared by A/S Welch.
GRANT