LEBANON: ELECTION POSTPONED FOR THE NINTH TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 001969

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: ELECTION POSTPONED FOR THE NINTH TIME


Classified By: CDA William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) Despite an apparent agreement between majority leader
Saad Hariri and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on how to
circumvent the constitutional obstacle to Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman's election as
president, Berri once again postponed the parliamentary vote
on December 17. Talks between the Berri and Hariri camps
reportedly broke down over cabinet formation, with the
opposition continuing to insist on 13 out of 30 seats. Over
100 MPs were present in parliament, including all of the
opposition Amal and Aoun MPs (though not Aoun himself). Not
all of March 14 agreed with the legal fix, suggesting that
once again Berri has succeeded not only in regaining the
initiative and forcing March 14 to say no, but in sowing
discord within the majority as well. End summary and comment.

DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN
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2. (SBU) On December 17, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri
postponed for the ninth time the session to elect a new
president, this time until noon on December 22. Optimism had
been running high just prior to the announcement that the
election would take place after initial reports that the
March 14 majority and opposition had agreed that a
constitutional amendment was no longer necessary to elect
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman.
However, Berri also demanded that Saad Hariri agree on the
division of seats in the next cabinet according to a 17/13
formumla, which would give the opposition a comfortable
"blocking third" on government decisions. Hariri would not,
and so Berri refused to open the electoral session.

LEGAL FINESSING
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3. (SBU) MP Bahije Tabbareh, a lawyer who has been working
with Berri and Hariri to find a way to get around the
constitutional prohibition against electing Sleiman, a
sitting high-level government official, told us December 17
that the solution centered around Article 74 of the
constitution, which deals with an unexpected vacancy in the
presidency. Because of the presidential vacuum, he said,
Article 74 could be used to argue that a constitutional
amendment was not necessary to elect Sleiman, thereby
removing the thorny issue of the Siniora government's role in
amending the constitution.


4. (C) However, not all March 14 leaders are on board with
this fix. Contacts told us that this solution, though
accepted by Hariri, was viewed negatively by March 14 members
Samir Geagea, former President Amine Gemayel, MP Boutros Harb
and PM Fouad Siniora.

BUT POLITICAL OBSTACLES REMAIN
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5. (C) Discussions between Berri and Hariri focused on the
distribution of seats inside the cabinet. Berri insisted on
a cabinet formation that consists of 13 seats for March 8 and
17 seats for March 14. Hariri rejected this because it would
give the opposition the blocking third (at least 11 seats)
allowing the opposition to block government decisions.


6. (C) Berri advisor Ali Hamdan confirmed that the
legal/constitutional impediment between the two blocs was
removed, but the political problem of cabinet composition
remains. The opposition, he said, continues to insist on
proportional representation inside the cabinet based on the
distribution of seats (55/45) inside parliament. (Note:
There is no requirement that the cabinet representation
reflect that of the parliament. End note).

OPPOSITION SHOWS UP IN FORCE
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7. (SBU) More than 100 of the 127 parliamentarians showed up
at parliament, including all of opposition Free Patriotic
Movement leader Michel Aoun's MPs, though Aoun himself did
not attend. On the March 14 side, only one MP from Samir
Geagea's 5-member bloc attended. Geagea advisor Elie Khoury
claimed that, due to low expectations that the election would
be held, Geagea's MPs preferred not to risk their personal
security by going to parliament.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Following the December 14 statement by French
President Sarkozy and the December 15-16 visit of NEA
Assistant Secretary David Welch, hopes were high that this
time, finally, parliament would elect a president. Once
again Berri has clearly set the stage to portray himself as
the problem-solver, and Saad as the spoiler. Once again he
has come up with a new initiative to solve the impasse, and
once again it is March 14 who rejects his overture. The fact
that all of the Amal and Aoun MPs went to parliament only
strengthens the argument that we are sure he will make that
the opposition was fully prepared to elect a president, had
March 14 only agreed.


9. (C) Of course, the reality is that, by linking the
election to cabinet formation, Berri is forcing yet another
concession on March 14, another step in the opposition's
efforts to get its hands not only on the presidency, but on
the next government. And, by postponing the session yet
again, Berri continues to play into the hands of those who
believe that time is not on March 14's side.


10. (C) So, it looks like we're back to square one, with the
opposition continuing to insist on some sort of a package
deal on the presidency. What strikes us as somewhat alarming
in this round, however, is that Berri once again has
succeeded in finding a way to sow disagreement within March
14; namely, over the constitutional amendment question.
March 14 planned to meet the night of December 17 to consider
next steps. End comment.


GRANT