LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR ANNOYED AT AOUN, PREFERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001904 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA FRONT OFFICE AND NEA/ELA; NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM LE SY FR SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR ANNOYED AT AOUN, PREFERS EDDE, BUT WILL ACCEPT SLEIMAN BEIRUT 00001904 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a 11/29 meeting with the Ambassador, a glum Maronite Patriarch Sfeir groused about Michel Aoun and complained that the French, in forcing him to give a list of presidential candidates, had promised him that one of those named on the list would be elected by the parliament. Why, Sfeir asked, wouldn't Saad Hariri accept Michel Edde? Can it be true that Hariri is now looking at Edde more positively? Asked about the recent momentum behind LAF Commander Michel Sleiman, Sfeir said that history reinforces his view that a "military man" is not good for the presidency. He also stated his reluctance to see the constitution amended again. But, if the Lebanese agree that Sleiman is the best possibility to get a president elected soon, then Sfeir accepts Sleiman as president. End summary. COMPLAINING ABOUT AOUN -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir at the Patriarchate in Bkirke on 11/29. Appearing initially glum and defeated, Sfeir tried to make a joke by noting that the Ambassador had come to Bkirki rather than going to Rabiah to see the "political Patriarch," a pointed reference to Michel Aoun's self-proclaimed title. "Who are those people" who responded to Aoun's call for "Christian consultations," the Patriarch asked. "Aoun even insulted me!" Sfeir said. "Maybe he would have time to go to the Parliament to vote if he didn't have so many press conference!" (While the Patriarch tried to make light of Aoun's recent histrionics, he appeared to be deeply bothered, perhaps remembering when Aoun sent his mobs to physically harass the Patriarch in 1989.) UNHAPPY WITH THE FRENCH -------------- ¶3. (C) The Ambassador asked the Patriarch his view of the recent push behind the candidacy of Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman. The Patriarch changed the subject, complaining that he had never wanted to provide names of presidential candidates to the French. He noted that it had been a mistake to provide names to the Americans in 1988, and it was a mistake to do so at the French request now. When �A;their initiative failed, the French even dared to ask him to write another list, which he refused to do. Those six names (not seven -- meaning Sfeir must not count Riad Salameh, a French addition) are all that he will give, and he shouldn't have gone that far. Sfeir complained that the French, when he asked what would happen Saad Hariri and Nabih Berri failed to agree on a name, vowed that the list would go to parliament for the MPs to vote. He lived up to his side of the understanding -- to provide names -- but the French did not live up to theirs. YEARNING FOR MICHEL EDDE -------------- ¶4. (C) The Patriarch then picked a name from his list, Michel Edde, and asked why Saad Hariri had rejected Edde. Edde, while old, is a "good man." Yes, he has been too close to the Syrians, the Patriarch said, repeating in delight the joke about Edde being able to slip in under the door (a reference to his notorious remark -- that he denies making -- that he would throw his considerable body down in front of the Syrian tanks if they ever tried to leave Lebanon). But many people in March 14 were also once close to the Syrians, Sfeir said. Maybe, he said, the stories he has heard are true, that Hariri has now belatedly accepted Edde's candidacy. Might Saad now accept Edde? Anticipating that Sfeir had heard from Edde the story that the USG had vetoed Edde, the Ambassador explained to Sfeir that we had been very uncomfortable with a process by which the vetoes by the pro-Syrians -- five in all, out of seven names on the French-enhanced Patriarch's list -- had been respected, while the pressure was being exclusively applied to Hariri, representing the parliamentary majority. Sfeir shrugged. SLEIMAN O.K. "IF EVERYONE AGREES" BEIRUT 00001904 002.3 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador raised the candidacy of Michel Sleiman again. "He's a good man, an honest man," Sfeir said. "But he's a military man." Lebanon has had bad experiences with military men at the top: Fouad Shihab, Michel Aoun, and Emile Lahoud. They "do not think like the others," Sfeir said, repeating more criticisms about Aoun expecting everyone to accept his presidential initiative "as if it was a military order." The Ambassador asked Sfeir whether he thought Sleiman was of similar character to Aoun or Lahoud. "No, no, no," Sfeir protested, repeating that Sleiman is a "good man." He is not "crazy" (a reference to Aoun). But to have him president, one needs to amend the constitution, and Lebanon has had bad luck with constitutional amendments. ¶6. (C) Still, Sfeir continued, in August, from the summer residence in Diman, he issued a statement saying that the Maronite Church would accept a Sleiman presidency, if that is what is required to "save Lebanon." So Sleiman, while his name did not appear on Sfeir's list to the French, can nevertheless be considered one of the Patriarch's candidates, Sfeir noted. "If everyone agrees" that Sleiman is the best choice for Lebanon now, then "I will accept." Sfeir made references to the declining economy, emigrating youth, and worrying security environment in pressing for a quick solution. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The Patriarch has been humiliated repeatedly over the past few weeks. First, the list he never wanted to give to the French was (predictably) leaked, leading to all sorts of criticisms from those who did not approve of his choices and particular outrage from presidential candidate who did not make the cut. Second, his list failed anyway, demonstrating the weakness of his authority -- we no longer hear Nabih Berri claiming that he would stand with any candidate the Patriarch names. Third, Aoun, claiming to be the Christians' political leader, has publicly condemned the political role of the Patriarch and the Maronite Church. All of this has taken a toll on Sfeir, who appeared shriveled and weighted down in this meeting, suddenly acting his 87 year. ¶8. (C) The Patriarch is clearly not thrilled with the thought of Michel Sleiman as president. But we also had the sense that his bottom line is that he wants a president as quickly as possible. If Sleiman can fill the confessional, constitutional, and political vacuum and help prevent any kind of civil clashes, Sfeir will, we are certain, accept the choice. FELTMAN