LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR ANNOYED AT AOUN, PREFERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001904

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA FRONT OFFICE AND NEA/ELA; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM LE SY FR
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PATRIARCH SFEIR ANNOYED AT AOUN, PREFERS
EDDE, BUT WILL ACCEPT SLEIMAN

BEIRUT 00001904 001.3 OF 002


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) In a 11/29 meeting with the Ambassador, a glum
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir groused about Michel Aoun and
complained that the French, in forcing him to give a list of
presidential candidates, had promised him that one of those
named on the list would be elected by the parliament. Why,
Sfeir asked, wouldn't Saad Hariri accept Michel Edde? Can it
be true that Hariri is now looking at Edde more positively?
Asked about the recent momentum behind LAF Commander Michel
Sleiman, Sfeir said that history reinforces his view that a
"military man" is not good for the presidency. He also
stated his reluctance to see the constitution amended again.
But, if the Lebanese agree that Sleiman is the best
possibility to get a president elected soon, then Sfeir
accepts Sleiman as president. End summary.

COMPLAINING ABOUT AOUN
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2. (C) The Ambassador met with Maronite Patriarch Sfeir at
the Patriarchate in Bkirke on 11/29. Appearing initially
glum and defeated, Sfeir tried to make a joke by noting that
the Ambassador had come to Bkirki rather than going to Rabiah
to see the "political Patriarch," a pointed reference to
Michel Aoun's self-proclaimed title. "Who are those people"
who responded to Aoun's call for "Christian consultations,"
the Patriarch asked. "Aoun even insulted me!" Sfeir said.
"Maybe he would have time to go to the Parliament to vote if
he didn't have so many press conference!" (While the
Patriarch tried to make light of Aoun's recent histrionics,
he appeared to be deeply bothered, perhaps remembering when
Aoun sent his mobs to physically harass the Patriarch in
1989.)

UNHAPPY WITH THE FRENCH
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3. (C) The Ambassador asked the Patriarch his view of the
recent push behind the candidacy of Lebanese Armed Forces
Commander Michel Sleiman. The Patriarch changed the subject,
complaining that he had never wanted to provide names of
presidential candidates to the French. He noted that it had
been a mistake to provide names to the Americans in 1988, and
it was a mistake to do so at the French request now. When
their initiative failed, the French even dared to ask him to
write another list, which he refused to do. Those six names
(not seven -- meaning Sfeir must not count Riad Salameh, a
French addition) are all that he will give, and he shouldn't
have gone that far. Sfeir complained that the French, when
he asked what would happen Saad Hariri and Nabih Berri failed
to agree on a name, vowed that the list would go to
parliament for the MPs to vote. He lived up to his side of
the understanding -- to provide names -- but the French did
not live up to theirs.

YEARNING FOR MICHEL EDDE
--------------


4. (C) The Patriarch then picked a name from his list,
Michel Edde, and asked why Saad Hariri had rejected Edde.
Edde, while old, is a "good man." Yes, he has been too close
to the Syrians, the Patriarch said, repeating in delight the
joke about Edde being able to slip in under the door (a
reference to his notorious remark -- that he denies making --
that he would throw his considerable body down in front of
the Syrian tanks if they ever tried to leave Lebanon). But
many people in March 14 were also once close to the Syrians,
Sfeir said. Maybe, he said, the stories he has heard are
true, that Hariri has now belatedly accepted Edde's
candidacy. Might Saad now accept Edde? Anticipating that
Sfeir had heard from Edde the story that the USG had vetoed
Edde, the Ambassador explained to Sfeir that we had been very
uncomfortable with a process by which the vetoes by the
pro-Syrians -- five in all, out of seven names on the
French-enhanced Patriarch's list -- had been respected, while
the pressure was being exclusively applied to Hariri,
representing the parliamentary majority. Sfeir shrugged.

SLEIMAN O.K. "IF EVERYONE AGREES"

BEIRUT 00001904 002.3 OF 002


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5. (C) The Ambassador raised the candidacy of Michel
Sleiman again. "He's a good man, an honest man," Sfeir said.
"But he's a military man." Lebanon has had bad experiences
with military men at the top: Fouad Shihab, Michel Aoun, and
Emile Lahoud. They "do not think like the others," Sfeir
said, repeating more criticisms about Aoun expecting everyone
to accept his presidential initiative "as if it was a
military order." The Ambassador asked Sfeir whether he
thought Sleiman was of similar character to Aoun or Lahoud.
"No, no, no," Sfeir protested, repeating that Sleiman is a
"good man." He is not "crazy" (a reference to Aoun). But to
have him president, one needs to amend the constitution, and
Lebanon has had bad luck with constitutional amendments.


6. (C) Still, Sfeir continued, in August, from the summer
residence in Diman, he issued a statement saying that the
Maronite Church would accept a Sleiman presidency, if that is
what is required to "save Lebanon." So Sleiman, while his
name did not appear on Sfeir's list to the French, can
nevertheless be considered one of the Patriarch's candidates,
Sfeir noted. "If everyone agrees" that Sleiman is the best
choice for Lebanon now, then "I will accept." Sfeir made
references to the declining economy, emigrating youth, and
worrying security environment in pressing for a quick
solution.

COMMENT
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7. (C) The Patriarch has been humiliated repeatedly over
the past few weeks. First, the list he never wanted to give
to the French was (predictably) leaked, leading to all sorts
of criticisms from those who did not approve of his choices
and particular outrage from presidential candidate who did
not make the cut. Second, his list failed anyway,
demonstrating the weakness of his authority -- we no longer
hear Nabih Berri claiming that he would stand with any
candidate the Patriarch names. Third, Aoun, claiming to be
the Christians' political leader, has publicly condemned the
political role of the Patriarch and the Maronite Church. All
of this has taken a toll on Sfeir, who appeared shriveled and
weighted down in this meeting, suddenly acting his 87 year.


8. (C) The Patriarch is clearly not thrilled with the
thought of Michel Sleiman as president. But we also had the
sense that his bottom line is that he wants a president as
quickly as possible. If Sleiman can fill the confessional,
constitutional, and political vacuum and help prevent any
kind of civil clashes, Sfeir will, we are certain, accept the
choice.
FELTMAN