PRESIDENT'S LAWYER INSISTS LAHOUD WILL LEAVE

S E C R E T BEIRUT 001800

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017
TAGS: IS LE PARM PGOV PREL PTER SY
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S LAWYER INSISTS LAHOUD WILL LEAVE


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons: section 1.4 (
b),(d)


1. Summary: (S) President Emile Lahoud's legal advisor Selim
Jerissaiti insisted that Lahoud plans to leave the
presidential palace at the end of his mandate on November 24
and will do so without taking what Jerrissaiti admitted would
be the unconstitutional step of appointing a second
government. He agreed that Hizballah SYG Nasrallah's fiery
speech of November 11 was designed in part to get Lahoud to
reconsider and said Lahoud is under tremendous pressure, but
will go home when his term ends. End Summary.


2. (S) Over lunch with Ambassador and DCM on November 13,
Judge Selim Jerrissaiti, legal advisor to President Emile
Lahoud, insisted that, as he has told us before, Lahoud still
plans on leaving Baabda Palace at the end of his mandate on
November 24. He added that Lahoud will not take what
Jerissaiti admitted would be the unconstitutional step of
appointing a second government. He claimed that Lahoud's
personal effects already have been packed up for transfer to
the new house Lahoud has obtained. We probed and prodded
Jerrissaiti, who said he had advised Lahoud that he could
stay on as president if certain conditions were met: a
popular appeal from a cross-confessional, significant part of
the Lebanese population (easy enough for Hizballah and Aoun
to fulfill),failure by the parliament to have elected a
president despite having met (very plausible),and some kind
of cover for Maronite Patriarch Sfeir (hard to achieve, as
Sfeir opposes an extension). Jerissaiti claimed that Lahoud
had reacted to this argument by saying it was impossible that
all of the conditions could be fulfilled, and he would not
seek to stay.


3. (S) Jerissaiti agreed that Hizballah SYG Hassan
Nasrallah's fiery November 11 speech, which included clear
references to Lahoud staying on, was designed in part to
persuade Lahoud to reconsider, and he claimed that Lahoud is
under tremendous pressure from Syria and pro-Syrian forces.
He said that Hizballah's preferred options are for Lahoud to
name a second, transitory cabinet with Michel Aoun at its
helm or some kind of military cabinet led by Lebanese Armed
Forces commander General Michel Sleiman. Lahoud refuses to
name a second cabinet and told the Syrians so, Jeressaiti
said, citing his own legal arguments to Lahoud as determining
factors. Jeressaiti was less emphatic against a military
government, saying in response to our questions that if there
were an impasse over the presidency and all the political
actors came to Lahoud asking him to appoint LAF commander
Sleiman as head of the cabinet, Lahoud likely would do so.


4. (S) Asked about Lahoud's preferences to be his successor,
Jerissaiti claimed that he and Lahoud supports the initiative
ofthe Patriarch who has submitted a list of five or six
presidential candidates to Speaker Nabih Berri and Majority
leader Saad Hariri. "The Patriarch's list is our list" he
said.


5. (S) Comment: Although Jerissaiti claimed that Lahoud
determined the conditions for an extension could never be
fulfilled, we are not so sure. Hizballah and Aoun could
generate a popular appeal from a significant,
cross-confessional part of the population. Patriarch Sfeir's
objections to the extension could be covered if violence
broke out -- or, more correctly, were provoked by March 8 --
and the Patriarch issued some kind of appeal that could be
interpreted as giving Lahoud the cover he needs to extend or
giving LAF commander Sleiman the cover to intervene. In
other words, we will believe that Emile Lahoud will leave
Baabda Palace on time, and without naming a second cabinet or
military government, when he actually leaves Baabda Palace on
time and without taking those steps.
End comment.
FELTMAN