Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07BEIRUT1793
2007-11-16 13:34:00
SECRET
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:
LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI
how-toVZCZCXRO8377 OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV DE RUEHLB #1793 3201334 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 161334Z NOV 07 FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0074 INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHROV/AMEMBASSY VATICAN PRIORITY 0884 RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1887
S E C R E T BEIRUT 001793
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, CA, AND DS; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2027
TAGS: PREL ASEC PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI
PREDICT VIOLENCE 11/20
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
S E C R E T BEIRUT 001793
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, CA, AND DS; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2027
TAGS: PREL ASEC PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI
PREDICT VIOLENCE 11/20
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (S) In back-to-back meetings on 11/16 with the
Ambassador, Saudi Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja, Druse leader
Walid Jumblatt, and Ghattas Hariri (advisor to Saad Hariri
and passing a message from Hariri) all noted that they are
expecting violence to begin on Tuesday, November 20.
Jumblatt claimed that this information is "solid." They
believed that pro-Syrians figures such as Wi'am Wihab, Talal
Arslan, and Zahar Khatib would spark Druse-on-Druse clashes
first, followed by Christian-on-Christian clashes. Khoja and
Jumblatt argued that the lower Chouf and coastal areas south
of the airport (strongholds of Wihab and Arslan) are where
clashes are first planned, followed by the Alley area. The
excuse will be social concerns -- protests over fuel price
increases and rises in the cost of living will intentionally
turn violent.
2. (S) Our contacts speculate that there are two purposes
for the allegedly planned clashes: first, derail any chance
of a compromise presidential election in a parliamentary
session to be held the next day, and, second, promote the
presidential prospects of LAF Commander Michel Sleiman. With
violent clashes, it becomes easier to postpone elections,
without appearing to undercut Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's list
of candidates and the French initiative. Depending on how
sustained and heavy the violence, it becomes more likely that
an increasingly desperate Patriarch could provide an appeal
for Sleiman to take control of the country even on an interim
basis. Jumblatt believes that this is Syria's objective:
find a way to see that Sleiman becomes head of state, even on
a temporary basis.
3. (S) We cannot evaluate how serious these reports are.
Some of this is undoubtedly circular reporting, with Hariri's
information likely deriving from Khoja's sources (who he
claimed were Saudi intelligence contacts). Jumblatt,
however, claimed that he obtained his information directly
from Druse sources within Druse opposition circles. While
protecting our sources, we have passed on our concerns to
Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias Murr that
all measures be used in the lead-up to next week's
parliamentary session to preserve Lebanon's stability.
FELTMAN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, CA, AND DS; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2027
TAGS: PREL ASEC PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI
PREDICT VIOLENCE 11/20
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).
1. (S) In back-to-back meetings on 11/16 with the
Ambassador, Saudi Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja, Druse leader
Walid Jumblatt, and Ghattas Hariri (advisor to Saad Hariri
and passing a message from Hariri) all noted that they are
expecting violence to begin on Tuesday, November 20.
Jumblatt claimed that this information is "solid." They
believed that pro-Syrians figures such as Wi'am Wihab, Talal
Arslan, and Zahar Khatib would spark Druse-on-Druse clashes
first, followed by Christian-on-Christian clashes. Khoja and
Jumblatt argued that the lower Chouf and coastal areas south
of the airport (strongholds of Wihab and Arslan) are where
clashes are first planned, followed by the Alley area. The
excuse will be social concerns -- protests over fuel price
increases and rises in the cost of living will intentionally
turn violent.
2. (S) Our contacts speculate that there are two purposes
for the allegedly planned clashes: first, derail any chance
of a compromise presidential election in a parliamentary
session to be held the next day, and, second, promote the
presidential prospects of LAF Commander Michel Sleiman. With
violent clashes, it becomes easier to postpone elections,
without appearing to undercut Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's list
of candidates and the French initiative. Depending on how
sustained and heavy the violence, it becomes more likely that
an increasingly desperate Patriarch could provide an appeal
for Sleiman to take control of the country even on an interim
basis. Jumblatt believes that this is Syria's objective:
find a way to see that Sleiman becomes head of state, even on
a temporary basis.
3. (S) We cannot evaluate how serious these reports are.
Some of this is undoubtedly circular reporting, with Hariri's
information likely deriving from Khoja's sources (who he
claimed were Saudi intelligence contacts). Jumblatt,
however, claimed that he obtained his information directly
from Druse sources within Druse opposition circles. While
protecting our sources, we have passed on our concerns to
Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias Murr that
all measures be used in the lead-up to next week's
parliamentary session to preserve Lebanon's stability.
FELTMAN