LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI

S E C R E T BEIRUT 001793 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, CA, AND DS; NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2027 TAGS: PREL ASEC PTER LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR, JUMBLATT, HARIRI PREDICT VIOLENCE 11/20 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) In back-to-back meetings on 11/16 with the Ambassador, Saudi Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, and Ghattas Hariri (advisor to Saad Hariri and passing a message from Hariri) all noted that they are expecting violence to begin on Tuesday, November 20. Jumblatt claimed that this information is "solid." They believed that pro-Syrians figures such as Wi'am Wihab, Talal Arslan, and Zahar Khatib would spark Druse-on-Druse clashes first, followed by Christian-on-Christian clashes. Khoja and Jumblatt argued that the lower Chouf and coastal areas south of the airport (strongholds of Wihab and Arslan) are where clashes are first planned, followed by the Alley area. The excuse will be social concerns -- protests over fuel price increases and rises in the cost of living will intentionally turn violent. ¶2. (S) Our contacts speculate that there are two purposes for the allegedly planned clashes: first, derail any chance of a compromise presidential election in a parliamentary session to be held the next day, and, second, promote the presidential prospects of LAF Commander Michel Sleiman. With violent clashes, it becomes easier to postpone elections, without appearing to undercut Maronite Patriarch Sfeir's list of candidates and the French initiative. Depending on how sustained and heavy the violence, it becomes more likely that an increasingly desperate Patriarch could provide an appeal for Sleiman to take control of the country even on an interim basis. Jumblatt believes that this is Syria's objective: find a way to see that Sleiman becomes head of state, even on a temporary basis. ¶3. (S) We cannot evaluate how serious these reports are. Some of this is undoubtedly circular reporting, with Hariri's information likely deriving from Khoja's sources (who he claimed were Saudi intelligence contacts). Jumblatt, however, claimed that he obtained his information directly from Druse sources within Druse opposition circles. While protecting our sources, we have passed on our concerns to Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Elias Murr that all measures be used in the lead-up to next week's parliamentary session to preserve Lebanon's stability. FELTMAN