LEBANON: AOUN REPRISING SPOILER ROLE, FRENCH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001792

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA FRONT OFFICE AND NEA/ELA; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2027
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN REPRISING SPOILER ROLE, FRENCH
INITIATIVE AT RISK


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Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) If successful, the French initiative to solve
Lebanon's presidential crisis will lead to a compromise
president not wholly satisfactory to either the March 8 or
March 14 political blocs. While far from ideal, that is
probably the best solution possible, given domestic,
regional, and international realities. Yet if Nabih Berri
and Saad Hariri find a consensus choice from the still-secret
list of candidates deemed acceptable by Maronite Patriarch
Sfeir, Lebanon's political crisis does not end but shifts
onto a new stage: March 14 risks splitting, as March 14
Christians lament the compromise as betrayal. These
divisions will appear just as March 14 needs strength and
unity for selecting a new prime minister, forming a new
cabinet, and developing a new cabinet program. While we
don't minimize the challenges, we believe that, ultimately,
March 14 unity can be preserved even in the face of a
less-than-perfect president. So, despite its warts, we hope
the French initiative succeeds.


2. (S) But, over the last 24 hours, evidence is growing
that the French initiative will not succeed. Our assumption
is that the pro-Syrian forces in Lebanon do not want a
compromise president and prefer to wait for an opportunity to
insert LAF Commander Michel Sleiman or someone less tested
but totally beholden to Syria. The challenge for the
pro-Syrians is how to block the French initiative from
succeeding without appearing to thwart the French or undercut
the Patriarch's authority. This is where Michel Aoun,
shameless as always, is happy to reprise his frequently
played role as spoiler.


3. (S) Michel Aoun, spewing vitriol at the U.S. and
lambasting the Ambassador in a televised performance before
his supporters on 11/15, announced that he will not recognize
a president who wins even two-thirds of Lebanon's parliament,
if that means one-third of the Lebanese -- i.e., the
Christians -- do not accept the choice. Aoun also rejected
as unconstitutional the idea of the Patriarch naming
candidates and insisted that his name not be included on any
list from Bkirke. As we told French Charge Andre Parant
today (11/16),Aoun is establishing the intellectual
foundation for declaring later that any president that
emerges from the French initiative is illegitimate and
unrepresentative. As he has so many times before, Aoun is on
the verge of rejecting a solution accepted by most Lebanese
and the international community.


4. (S) Aoun thus creates the conditions by which the French
initiative is stillborn. Hizballah leaders -- if (as we
expect) they are unhappy with the Patriarch-proposed names
under discussion by Hariri and Berri -- can then cite Aoun's
loyalty to them, unwavering even during war and despite
objections from the United States, in explaining that they
have no choice but to stand with Aoun now. Berri would then
tell Hariri that, while he was perfectly willing and ready to
make a deal, he cannot defy the wishes of the majority of the
Shia (with Hizballah) and the majority of the Christians
(with Aoun). The French initiative thus collapses, Emile
Lahoud's presidential term ends, and the chaos and
uncertainty that could follow suits the pro-Syrians' interest
in seeing LAF Commander Sleiman chosen as the person best
positioned to "save Lebanon." If asked, the pro-Syrians will
proclaim their innocence and point to Aoun as the cause.


5. (S) We believe that this explains why Berri has insisted
so vigorously that we help bring Aoun on board for any
compromise solution. UN envoy Geir Pedersen told us that
Berri's message to Ban Ki-Moon was the same: it is not
enough for Aoun to remove himself from the race; as the most
popular Christian politician, he must back the solution as
well. Berri may truly want a solution, since his power and
authority derive from his legitimate parliamentary role. No
one is more directly threatened by Hizballah's ascendency and
the Hizballah-Aoun alliance than Berri. We think Berri, on
his own, could probably live with any number of potential
compromise presidential candidates acceptable to Hariri.
But, much as he may want a solution, by appealing to us for
help, Berri is also -- again -- shifting responsibility onto
others. We predict that, if the French initiative collapses,
he will claim how much he wanted to elect someone from the

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Patriarch's list, but he could not because we did not do what
he asked vis-a-vis Aoun. By this argument, he will blame us
for the collapse of the French initiative (a charge certain
to be repeated in the pro-Syrian media here).


6. (S) In separate 11/16 meetings, the Ambassador shared
his analysis with French Charge Parant, Saudi Ambassador
Abdulaziz Khoja, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, Minister Marwan
Hamadeh, and Ghattas Khoury (with a request that Khoury share
it with Saad Hariri). Basically, all agreed that it is
likely Hizballah will stand behind Aoun, with Aoun's stance
then providing the pretext by which the French initiative
fails. To avoid this scenario, the Lebanese politicians
agreed to try to work on March 14 Christians, to get them
more committed to the French initiative, and those parts of
Michel Aoun's bloc who may be willing to break with the
General in favor of a genuine compromise president.


7. (S) We hope that international support for the
Patriarch's list will also help corner Berri. While there
has been no acknowledgment of the transmission of the list to
Hariri and Berri, and despite the fact that the names on the
list will remain secret, the existence of the list is public
knowledge. This gives us the opportunity to begin cornering
Berri (and Berri may actually welcome being cornered into
having no choice but to go along). But, alas, we draw a
blank when trying to think of ways to persuade Aoun himself
to play a constructive role rather than the spoiler. At
least if we can split a few MPs away from him, his
credibility in speaking for the Christians diminishes.
Moreover, if Aoun causes the collapse of the French
initiative and thus forces March 14 to try a "half-plus-one"
parliamentary vote for a new president, having a few Aounist
MPs on board and drawing the candidate's name from the
Patriarch's list will help strengthen any president elected
in that manner.
FELTMAN