LEBANON: AOUN DOWN ON THE FRENCH INITIATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001777

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: AOUN DOWN ON THE FRENCH INITIATIVE

REF: BEIRUT 1764

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) General Michel Aoun remains as gloomy and dejected as
he was during the last meeting with the Ambassador (reftel).
While the French initiative seems to have picked up momentum
elsewhere in Beirut in the last few days, Aoun shot down hope
for the initiative, saying that he would not participate by
submitting names to the Patriarch. He conveyed a loss of
hope, subtly implying that since his own candidacy was out of
the running, there was no one still in the race who was
capable of finding a solution to the crisis. The right
candidate, Aoun asserted, is one who can work with Hizballah.
He half-heartedly claimed he was not being pessimistic about
the French initiative, and that he would cooperate as best he
can, but that there were redlines he could not cross.
(Comment: Presumably, redlines refer to giving names that
did not include his own. End comment.) End summary.

AOUN WON'T GIVE NAMES TO THE PATRIARCH
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2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by PolOff, met with Free
Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun and his advisor (and
son-in-law) Gebran Bassil on November 13. A despondent Aoun
dismissed the French initiative, mildly joking that it was
very sophisticated and he did not understand it. In
particular, he questioned how the Patriarch would choose
names to submit to MP Saad Hariri and Speaker Nabih Berri.
Shrugging, he said that any individual (apart from himself)
who could settle the problems with Hizballah would be the
best candidate. However, he would not give names. He said
he will support any name but will not give them himself. He
explained that he was merely being diplomatic when he agreed
with French Charge Andre Parant to go along with the French
initiative. For now, Aoun said with nonchalance, he will
wait and see what the Patriarch wants from him. More than
once, Aoun said the problem does not lie in the names, but
about "figuring out a map towards a solution."

NEGATIVE OUTCOMES ON THE HORIZON
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3. (C) Aoun warned that electing a president with a half plus
one majority or keeping PM Fouad Siniora in power would only
exacerbate the crisis. After digressing to mention that a
solution could have been found in President Lahoud's proposal
for a national salvation government last spring, he continued
with his pessimistic outlook on Lebanon's future, predicting
that if there are no elections, there will be "a second, a
third, a fourth government." He refused to accept Siniora's
conditions (NFI),likening them to a bayonet, or a last
resort option. He also rejected the assumption that any name
Berri would agree to would have Hizballah's support,
shrugging, "Let's see if Berri is backed by Hizballah." He
took a break from denouncing everything on the table to
suggest an interim government, saying, "It is the only
constitutional and democratic way to end the crisis."

WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF...?
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4. (C) In an attempt to wake Aoun out of his self-induced
slump, the Ambassador posited scenarios and asked how Aoun
would respond. If the French initiative resulted in any
name, for example, Demianos Kattar - what would you do,
inquired the Ambassador. After a long pause, Aoun repeated
his earlier open question, "Does he have a solution to
achieve stability for Lebanon?" When the Ambassador asked if
Aoun's bloc would go to parliament when the voting session
was scheduled, Aoun remained quiet and then again offered,
"If the candidate proposed has a solution."

POSITIVE INTERPRETATION OF NASRALLAH'S SPEECH
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5. (C) Aoun offered the only positive spin we heard on Hassan
Nasrallah's speech, saying that if the angry tone were
ignored, he interpreted Nasrallah's speech to call for an
agreement on the presidency or on an interim government. He
disputed the Ambassador's interpretation that Nasrallah
rejected UNSCR 1559, believing Nasrallah "did not exclude the

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integration of weapons under a Lebanese dialogue." Aoun
thought Nasrallah conveyed the impression he was open to
discuss anything.

COMMENT
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6. (C) Aoun appears to have decided to sit out the French
initiative -- as well as sit out any other initiative that
doesn't promote his own candidacy. Accustomed to playing the
role of the outsider and an expert in nurturing a political
movement based on resentment, Aoun probably wants to keep
open the option of trying to delegitimize whatever solution
the French or others find. Just as Aoun has declared Fouad
Siniora's cabinet illegitimate and unrepresentative, he may
be calculating that, by refusing to endorse or participate in
any French-sponsored process, he can do the same with any new
president, even one that emerges from a consensus process.
This would not be the first time Aoun performs as spoiler of
solutions others accept.
FELTMAN