RIZK CLAIMS FRENCH, HARIRI BACKING FOR PRESIDENCY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 BEIRUT 000176



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/MARCHESE/HARDING



E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2027

TAGS: PREL, KDEM, PGOV, LE, SY, FR, KINL

SUBJECT: RIZK CLAIMS FRENCH, HARIRI BACKING FOR PRESIDENCY



Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).



SUMMARY AND COMMENT

--------------



1. (S) Minister of Justice Charles Rizk -- who considers

himself the father of the (not yet fully gestated) Special

Tribunal for Lebanon -- claims to have overcome two key

hurdles to winning Lebanon's presidency: the endorsement of

"Queen Mother" Nazek Hariri (widow of Rafiq) and backing of

French President Jacques Chirac. While, last time we

checked, neither Nazek nor Chirac have voting rights in the

Parliament that will this autumn choose the next occupant of

Baabda Palace, Rizk (joining a Lebanese consensus) considers

their support as essential to success. He claims that Chirac

plans to check with the USG to ensure that we would not veto

Rizk. While we at Embassy Beirut would prefer a March 14

candidate from the triumvirate of Nassib Lahoud, Nayla

Mouawad, or Boutros Harb (in that order),we think that Rizk

is the best of the "compromise candidates" currently in play.

He has been far more transparent in his dealings with us

than Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, another perennial

favorite. With months to go until the (s)election process,

however, other names will emerge; while we recommend against

vetoing Rizk, there is no reason for us to zero in on a

single candidate now. Rizk also claimed that, recently,

Syrian proxies attempted to bribe him to quit the cabinet.

While he may have invented or embellished that story to woo

our affection, whatever bridges he had to Damascus surely

have been badly damaged by Rizk's single-minded focus on the

tribunal (admittedly, a focus probably more rooted in

ambition than in a quest for truth). At first treated with

suspicion by March 14 stalwarts, Rizk, who jettisoned his

childhood friend Emile Lahoud as he pushed the tribunal

forward, is now accepted as credible presidential material by

most of them. Rizk expressed interest in coming to

Washington to present himself and a three-part presidential

agenda. End summary and comment.



WINNING THE TRUST

OF 'QUEEN MOTHER' NAZEK

--------------



2. (S) Rizk, who returned from a six-day trip to Paris on

Wednesday evening, insisted on a Thursday (2/1) lunch with

the Ambassador. Before the Ambassador had sat down, Rizk

said contentedly that he had seen "the Queen Mother" -- Rafiq

Hariri's Paris-based widow Nazek -- three times. While the

first included Rizk's wife Nayla and the second was a dinner

with other guests, the most important meeting took place on

Monday evening, when Rizk sat with Nazek for two hours

one-on-one. Nazek started out apologetically, saying that

she regretted that Rafiq never really got to know Rizk and

that she herself at first did not trust him. Rizk was

unknown to them, and he joined the Mikati and then Siniora

cabinets as a representative of President Emile Lahoud, his

childhood friend. How could she like him, given that

association. But, watching Rizk single-mindedly pursue the

establishment of the Special Tribunal, Nazek's views of Rizk

evolved. She appreciates what he has been doing, and he has

earned her trust and gratitude.



AUDITIONING CANDIDATES

BEFORE CHIRAC

--------------



3. (S) According to Rizk, Nazek then admitted that she had

first hoped that former MP Ghattas Khoury, who was extremely

close to Rafiq, would succeed Lahoud. Ghattas was Rafiq's

choice. She arranged for an interview between Khoury and

French President Jacques Chirac, who found Khoury lacking in

presidential stature. So she then invited former Foreign

Minister Jean Obeid ("who has no known source of income but

lives like a king," Rizk griped; "why does no one ever ask

about that?") for his audition with Chirac. Obeid, too,

failed his exam. Delighted to recount the felling of his

competition, Rizk laughed that Chirac's rejection probably

stemmed from the fact that neither are fluent in French, "a

requirement for office, according to the French." Ever the

stage mother, Nazek then focused on pushing Central Bank

Governor Riad Salameh. This was an easier sell, as Salameh

was already well known to and respected by Chirac because of

the work he accomplished to make the three Paris donor

conferences successful and vehicles to highlight France's

special relationship with Lebanon. Chirac gave his Gaulic



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nod of approval to Salameh. At this point in the

conversation, Rizk admitted that his heart sunk: he was

convinced that Nazek was trying to explain and apologize for

her choice of Salameh over Rizk.



BUT NOW NAZEK BACKS RIZK

--------------



4. (S) But, Nazek noted, over the past year, she

(exercising the right of multibillionaires everywhere)

changed her mind. Rizk has proven his independence from

Syria by his pursuit of the tribunal, despite Syria's clear

wishes to kill it. Nazek has heard whispers that Salameh may

still have some Syrian connections. (We too, have heard the

whispers, but do not know whether they are based in fact or

in backstabbing by the presidential competition.) Even at

the expense of his friendship with Lahoud, Rizk has done more

than any other person to establish the tribunal (a

characterization that UN/OLA's Nicolas Michel or Lebanese

judges Choukri Sadr and Ralf Riachi might well dispute).

Nazek wants Rizk to become president of Lebanon, and Chirac

agrees.



AND SO DOES CHIRAC

--------------



5. (S) Rizk then back-tracked briefly to a Saturday (1/27)

ceremony at the Elysee Palace, when Chirac presented the

Legion d'Honneur to Marwan Hamadeh: Chirac, in front of all

the guests, ostentatiously pulled Rizk aside for a 10-minute

one-on-one conversation. Nazek's subsequent words revealed

to Rizk just how significant this pull-aside was

symbolically, with Chirac praising Rizk's work on the

tribunal. (We note that several other presidential candidates

were also at the same ceremony. We predict that Nassib

Lahoud, Nayla Mouawad, Michel Edde, and Riad Salameh also

will tell us of their significant pull-asides with the French

President.) The Ambassador noted to Rizk that Chirac had

found many occasions during Paris III to extravagantly praise

Salameh: was Rizk so sure that Chirac had switched horses?

Rizk agreed that Chirac would still accept a Salameh

presidency, but maybe no longer as his first choice.

Chirac's praise of Salameh may have been intended to as

partial compensation for the let-down Salameh will experience

when he realizes Chirac has shifted his gaze, Rizk said

hopefully.



CHIRAC TO CONVINCE SAAD

--------------



6. (S) Returning to his 1/29 session with the Widow Hariri,

Rizk asked whether Saad Hariri, her step son and the

parliamentary majority leader, agreed with her assessment.

Nazek said that she would use Chirac to convey the message.

Chirac would convince Saad to back Rizk. If she approached

Saad directly, Saad would play the role of a contrary

stepson. After all, in July 2005, she had warned him not to

appoint the dreaded Fouad Siniora as Prime Minister, and the

next day he did just that. "Look what happened," Nazek said,

seeing Lebanon's woes as linked more to Siniora's tenure than

any other factor.



CHIRAC TO QUERY WASHINGTON;

RIZK ANGLES FOR VISIT

--------------



7. (S) It is also key to have a green light from the U.S.,

Nazek said, asking Rizk about his relationship with the

United States. "It seems to be fine," Rizk said, blurting

out before he noticed her face darkening that he had

accompanied the dreaded Siniora to the White House in spring

2006. Nazek said that Chirac planned to call President Bush,

or have Maurice Gourdault-Montagne call APNSA Hadley, to make

sure that the Americans accept a Rizk presidency. Rizk

expressed hope that the Ambassador would convey to Washington

very quickly how happy he is with the close relations with

Rizk. Eager to audition before us, he also made a pitch for

going to Washington. If Washington is tired of Lebanese

officials, he doesn't require any press, he said, and would

not overreach in terms of the level of appointments sought.

He wanted to share ideas on a three-part presidential agenda:

1) Getting the tribunal up and running and navigating

Lebanon through the dangers it will create; 2) passing a new

legislative election law and overseeing credible legislative

elections; 3) forging a national consensus on what Lebanon



BEIRUT 00000176 003 OF 005





is, in a way that forces all groups -- including Hizballah --

to become part of the state and subject to its rules.



MUSING OVER HIS ODDS

--------------



8. (S) Rizk said that he thought he would be an acceptable

candidate to Lebanese Forces' leader Samir Geagea, Druse

leader Walid Jumblatt, and Maronite Patriarch Sfeir.

(Comment: We agree that these three would now readily accept

him, having been initially suspicious of him. End comment.)

He reckoned that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, if he fails

in promoting his favorite, Jean Obeid, would endorse Rizk as

a fallback. His biggest opposition would come from Lahoud,

"whose opinion shouldn't count," and Amine Gemayel, the

latter for reasons of local Metn politics as well as

presidential politics. He worried about a Syrian veto that

could come in the form "a la Bashir Gemayel and Rene Mouawad"

of physical elimination. As for Hizballah, Rizk claimed to

have maintained a working relationship with Wafiq Safa, with

whom he shared various drafts of the tribunal documents.

Rizk said that he thought Hizballah would not block him,

unless Hizballah was forced to follow explicit orders from

Syria.



9. (S) Lowering his booming voice to a whisper, Rizk

("don't tell anyone") then claimed that some of "Syria's

friends" in Lebanon had approached him recently. They seemed

to want to bribe him "with a lot of money" to resign from the

cabinet. "I refused!" Rizk said, volume fully restored.

"They can't buy me." The Ambassador asked whether "Syria's

friends" had raised the presidency, either promising it or

threatening to block it. Rizk claimed that he cut off the

conversation so quickly that they had no chance to say more.

As the Ambassador tried to probe about who carried the

alleged Syrian message, Rizk cut off the conversation. "I

shouldn't have said anything."



COMMENT

--------------



10. (S) If Rizk was being honest with us about the content

of his consultations with the Widow Hariri, we suspect that

Nazek is hedging her bets, saying similar things to all the

likely presidential contenders. That way, whoever prevails

will feel in Nazek's debt. After all, whatever power and

influence Nazek possesses today stems from two factors -- her

billions and her relationship with Jacques Chirac. The

billions aren't going away, but the Chirac asset has an

expiration date quickly approaching. Nazek needs to shop

around for a replacement. Her access to political power is

unlikely to be exercised through Lebanon's premiership, if it

continues to be occupied by Fouad Siniora or is acquired by

Saad Hariri. Thus, she is presumably focused on the

presidency. Rizk's ambitions seem to have made him gullible,

believing that he is the only one for Nazek. It will be

interesting to see if the French do come calling to inquire

about Rizk alone: we suspect not. We would guess, if they

do call, that the French will have a lists of acceptable and

unacceptable candidates, with Rizk falling somewhere on the

acceptable list.



11. (S) As for our views on the approaching presidential

elections, it is no secret that we would prefer as president

someone who has been associated with March 14 values --

independence and sovereignty for Lebanon, free of Syrian

interference -- from the start. Nassib Lahoud, Nayla

Mouawad, or (in distant third place) Boutros Harb would top

our list of preferences. All three began resisting the

Syrian occupation before it became trendy to do so. But we

also sense that, in any grand deal to address Lebanon's

political crisis, the presidency will end up in the hands of

a compromise candidate, neither March 14 nor March 8. Of

those whose names are currently in circulation in this

category, we prefer Rizk. He has weight and presence

compared to the colorless Central Bank Governor Salameh (who

seems to be the current front-runner among the compromise

names),and he has worked transparently with us on trying to

move the tribunal forward. We think the Patriarch sees him

as a more genuine representative of the Maronites than

Salameh as well. If Chirac does call, we recommend not

vetoing Rizk, but we also see no reason today to limit

ourselves to one candidate. In the capricious political

winds of Lebanon, other candidates will emerge.





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12. (S) Admittedly, Rizk's longtime friendship with Emile

Lahoud does give one pause. We have probed, trying to find

out what is his relationship, past or present, with Syria; we

have uncovered little that is definitive. But we note that,

in any case, Rizk is not the only person in Lebanon to have

broken with past alliances. Rafiq Hariri's belated push for

a Syrian withdrawal and Walid Jumblatt's spectacular break

with Hizballah and Syria come to mind. We do not now

question the authenticity of Hariri and Jumblatt's changes of

heart. Rizk's shift came with his embrace of the mission of

establishing the tribunal, and is probably rooted more in

ambition for the presidency than in a noble quest for the

truth. But he has stuck doggedly with the tribunal and the

cabinet when it would have been easier for him to quit. Some

Lebanese figures are starting to sidestep back toward the

fence from which they once jumped down on the side of March

14, when March 14's fortunes and future appeared bright.

Rizk was never, and is not now, a March 14 member. But, even

in this most difficult environment, he also has not tried to

be a fence-sitter on the tribunal, an issue of critical

importance to March 14, to Lebanon, and to us. If Rizk ends

up as president despite Lahoud's inevitable objections, we

think we'll find him acceptable and certainly a vast

improvement over the shameful incumbent.



BIO INFORMATION

--------------



13. (C) Rizk is an easy, relaxed, engaging, likable

interlocutor, fully comfortable in colloquial English and

with a cosmopolitan air and tastes typical of the

French-educated upper-class Maronites. Unlike many, however,

he does not live ostentatiously -- his vacation house in

Faraya is rustic and classy, not showy, and his Ashrafieh

apartment is modest, even a bit shabby (in a "shabby chic"

sort of way),by Lebanese cabinet standards, with nary a

stick of gilded furniture in sight. His wife Nayla, who has

natural and genuine warmth, has not subjected herself to the

plastic surgeons' scalpels and collagen injections typical of

many Lebanese wives. Charles and Nayla share a love for the

arts and literature with a depth and passion unusual for

Lebanon. Even before Charles had to take unusual security

precautions because of his cabinet role and work on the

tribunal, they were not regulars on the Beirut social scene.

Nudging them out to a dinner required a promise that the

guest list was small.



14. (C) We enjoy ready access to Rizk. He is fond of his

drink, which tends to encourage his proclivity to expound on

subjects large and small. Some of his ideas verge on the

margins of the wacky, but he has also proven to be a

creative, facile thinker, always ready to shift gears based

on new arguments and facts. Somewhat vain, he is sensitive

to perceived slights (we doubt he ever forgives his ex-friend

Emile Lahoud for Lahoud's public insults of Rizk) and is

easily provoked into witty, amusing, but biting criticisms of

any and all of his peers and colleagues. Excitable, he

sometimes seems to talk before thinking, as when he called a

press conference to criticize Central Bank Governor Salameh

over an obscure detail in the Bank al-Medina scandal, an

ill-considered move on Rizk's part that made him appear to be

groping for the presidency (a trait, we note, not unique to

Rizk).



15. (C) A skier and swimmer, he comes across as younger and

more athletic than his 71 years would suggest. He exudes

energy and joy. He tends to be good-humored with us, often

sharing jokes about himself, us, the French, etc. While

clearly delighted to hobnob with those who share his

affection for fine Bordeaux, he finds the entire concept of

the Francophonie, to which he serves as Lebanon's executive

representative, risible, and constantly offers to be

Lebanon's representative to the "Anglophony." In comparison

with Riad Salameh, he has another advantage that the Lebanese

in particular appreciate: he looks presidential, not gray

and bureaucratic.



16. (SBU) The following is from the Embassy's biographic

files on Rizk:



Date and place of birth: July 20, 1935, Beirut.



Marital status: Married, with two grown daughters. One is a

locally recognized artist and the other lives and works in

Paris.



BEIRUT 00000176 005 OF 005







Religion: Maronite Christian (although his wife Nayla is

Orthodox)



Education: PhD in Law from the University of Paris, degree

from the Institute of Political Science, Paris, and

literature degree from the University of Lyon, France



Languages: Fluent in Arabic, French, and English.



Career:



-- Director of Studies in the Institute of Civil Service,

1960-67. Appointed Director General of the Ministry of

Information, 1967-70. Controller at the Central Control

Commission (equivalent of the OIG for the GOL),1970-73.

General Manager of the National Litani River Foundation

(1973-1977).



-- He was also president of the state-run television station

Tele Liban, 1978-1983.



-- He is the founder and president of a software firm that

has operations in France and Central Europe. With his

appointment to the cabinet in April 2005, he transferred

ownership of the company to his two daughters.



-- Minister of Information and Minister of Tourism in Najib

Mikati's April-July 2005 cabinet.



-- Minister of Justice in Fouad Siniora's cabinet since July

2005.



-- Lebanon's representative to the executive body of the

International Organization of Francophone Countries since

1998.



-- Authored sevearl books, including "Le Regime Politique

Libanais" (which has a "Chehabist" theme -- that is, the

state should prevail, per the goals of Lebanon's former

president Fouad Chehab, the political mentor for Rizk).



FELTMAN