LEBANON: HARIRI BLOC WOULD ACCEPT PATRIARCH'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001714

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: HARIRI BLOC WOULD ACCEPT PATRIARCH'S
SHORT-LIST FOR PRESIDENCY

BEIRUT 00001714 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM William Grant for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri's cousin and
Chief of Staff Nader recently delivered assurances on behalf
of Saad to the Patriarch that his bloc would vote for any
candidate selected by the Patriarch in order to avoid a
presidential vacuum. Nader was skeptical, however, whether
Speaker Berri would do the same. If the Patriarch does
produce a short-list, Nader believed Saad and Berri would
first need to agree on one candidate before allowing
parliament to vote. Nader further said the Patriarch
continues to rejects a constitutional amendment to allow the
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Commander Michel Sleiman to run
for president. Nader was critical of Michel Aoun's recent
statements, and said he believed some Aoun MPs would buck
their leader and go to parliament to vote to avoid a
presidential vacuum. End summary.


2. (C) During a October 29 meeting with Pol/Econ Chief and
Senior FSN Political Advisor, Nader Hariri, cousin and Chief
of Staff of Future Movement leader and MP Saad Hariri, said
he had recently met with Sfeir to deliver a message on Saad's
behalf that his bloc would accept any short list of names
proposed by the Patriarch. However, Nader did not believe
that Speaker Berri would be able to give similar assurances
to the Patriarch, despite Berri's repeated statements that he
also would accept the Patriarch's candidates. Nader said
Sfeir wanted guarantees that the names he would propose as
potential candidates would not be rejected by either Saad or
Berri; the Patriarch does not want to be "humiliated" or
undermined and therefore is reluctant to put names forward.


3. (C) Should the Patriarch come up with a short list, Nader
said, both Hariri and Berri would have to agree on one
candidate before parliament actually votes. He cited
Demianos Kattar, Fares Bouiez, Chaqib Qortbawi, Joseph Torbey
and Simon Karam as names rumored to be on the list. If that
were the case, Saad's bloc would vote for Karam, Nader said,
since Karam shares the same independent and sovereign
aspirations as March 14.


4. (C) Nader said Sfeir still opposes a constitutional
amendment to allow LAF commander Michel Sleiman to become
president, as well as the election of a president elected by
absolute majority. However, he spoke positively about
Sleiman, saying that following the February 2005
assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, the
General paid a condolence call on the Hariri family and
informed them he was submitting his resignation (which was
refused),a noble gesture in the eyes of the Hariri family.

NO DEAL OVER UNSCR 1559
--------------


5. (C) Responding to our inquiry regarding the ongoing
one-on-one meetings between Hariri and Berri, Nader denied
that controversial issues such as UNSCR 1559 had been
discussed. Berri is attempting to dismiss 1559, he
acknowledged, but the matter is not in his hands. "Berri
cannot decide on his own on this particular issue, because
this is an international resolution that Lebanon should
respect," Nader added.

CRITICAL OF AOUN, BUT CONFIDENT AOUN MPS WILL SUPPORT
NON-AOUN CANDIDATE
--------------


6. (SBU) Turning to General Michel Aoun, Nader criticized the
General's recent radical statement, but disclosed that Aoun
and Saad Hariri would meet soon. (Note: the meeting occurred
October 31 in Paris, after neither side was willing to meet
the other on his home turf back in Beirut. End note.) Nader
believed Aoun's harsh statement could be related to news
reports that one of his financial backers, Wadih Abssi, had
lost the contract to build the U.S. Embassy in Jeddah, Saudi
Arabia, because of his financial support to Aoun. "Aoun gets
crazy when the matter relates to his financial situation,"
Nader observed.


BEIRUT 00001714 002.2 OF 002



7. (SBU) Nader also disclosed that he had been in contact
with MPs from Aoun's bloc (Farid Khazen, Ghassan Moukheiber
and Salim Salhab),and he sensed from the three that they
would not go all the way with Aoun; when the time comes to
avoid a presidential vacuum, they will make sure to attend
the parliamentary session. Nader also indicated that some of
Aoun's MPs will attend the session if they feel that the
proposed candidate does not constitute a major challenge for
them.

Comment
--------------


8. (SBU) Nader Hariri is close to his cousin Saad and has
been his advisor since the 2005 assassination of Saad,s
father and Nader,s uncle, former PM Rafiq Hariri. Though he
does not speak as authoritatively as Saad,s older advisors
such as Ghattas Khoury, he has Saad's confidence, as
demonstrated by the fact that Saad dispatched him to meet
with the Patriarch. End comment.
FELTMAN