LEBANON: EUROPEANS SEE PROGRESS ON PRESIDENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001680

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: EUROPEANS SEE PROGRESS ON PRESIDENCY
FOLLOWING FOREIGN MINISTERS' VISIT


BEIRUT 00001680 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b)
and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Italian Ambassador to Lebanon, reporting on the
October 19-20 visit of the French, Italian, and Spanish
foreign ministers to Lebanon, noted progress in Speaker
Berri's efforts to reach a consensus candidate and more
conciliatory tones on the part of both Berri and PM Siniora.
Despite rumors in town that they back LAF Commander Michel
Sleiman as president, the Europeans themselves are not
pushing any candidate. The ministers sent a tough message on
UNIFIL, promising to stay the course even if the situation
deteriorates, and expressed support for Siniora's proposed
hybrid border security force. End summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief, met
with Italian Ambassador to Lebanon Gabriele Checchia and
Political Officer Carlo Jacobucci on October 26 at the
Italian Embassy in Beirut. The meeting focused on the
October 19-20 visit of French FM Kouchner, Italian FM
D'Alema, and Spanish FM Moratinos. Overall, Checchia said,
the ministers, who held separate meetings with PM Siniora,
Parliament Speaker Berri the Patriarch and a group of
Lebanese political leaders from both sides, left with the
impression that things were moving in the right direction.
Checchia confirmed reports we have heard that D'Alema took
the lead during the visit, noting that Moratinos stayed a bit
on the side, perhaps chastened by Siniora's reprimand for
passing messages to Damascus that Lebanon had not approved
and for not being tougher on Syria.

SINIORA: HALF PLUS ONE IS LAST RESORT
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3. (C) According to Checchia, the ministers did not play the
name game on the presidency, instead encouraging the Lebanese
leaders to continue their dialogue in an effort to find a
candidate with the "largest possible support." PM Siniora
reportedly told them that March 14 would only use a half plus
one vote as a last option, but in the meantime had to play it
as a strong negotiating card. Siniora, who Checchia said was
really tough on Syria in the meeting, derided the
opposition's attempts to "teach" March 14 the constitution.

EUROPEANS NOT PUSHING FOR SLEIMAN
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4. (C) Refuting rumors on the Beirut streets, Checchia
adamantly denied the ministers were pushing for a Sleiman
candidacy, though he agreed that some might view it as an
easy way out of the crisis. He explained that D'Alema had
raised the possibility as a tactical strawman to gauge
Siniora's reaction both to Sleiman himself and to amending
the constitution to allow sitting government officials like
Sleiman to run. However, Checchia stressed, even if some
Italian leaders back home were in favor of a Sleiman
presidency (NFI),that was not the Italian position. He
agreed with the Ambassador that the Patriarch was key to
avoiding a Sleiman presidency.

BERRI PUSHES FOR MORE U.S. FLEXIBILITY
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5. (C) In his meeting with the three FMs, Berri reportedly
asked them to pass a message to the U.S. to be more flexible
and not push for half plus one, though he noted that he
believed the U.S. was moving in the right direction.
Checchia said Berri appeared more open to a more pro-March 14
candidate, as long that person was not anti-March 8,
reportedly suggesting only that that person needed to be in
line with March 8 "principles" and not lead to international
isolation of Syria. Not for the first time, Checchia said,
Berri hinted that Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun
was no longer March 8's candidate. Berri promised to
continue with his initiative to find a consensus candidate,
including his on-going dialogue with majority leader Saad
Hariri. Checchia, adding that he himself had met with Hariri
on October 24, said Saad told him he believed Berri was
sincere in his efforts but afraid of Syria. Saad further

BEIRUT 00001680 002.2 OF 002


told Checchia that he and Berri were discussing unspecified
non-politicians as consensus candidates.

HIZBALLAH WARNS AGAINST HALF PLUS ONE
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6. (C) Reporting on the ministers' dinner with Lebanese
political leaders at the French Ambassador's Residence des
Pins on October 20, Checchia said resigned Hizballah Energy
Minister Mohamad Fneish was very tough. Checchia, noting he
had met privately with Fneish a few days later, said Fneish
urged the Europeans to do whatever they can to stop a half
plus one president, arguing this would lead to two
governments and possible civil war. Hizballah would not
provoke this, Fneish reportedly said, but its feeling was
that March 14 did not want consensus. (Separately, the
French DCM told DCM that Fneish's remarks were borderline
threats about violence if consensus was not reached.)

PATRIARCH WORKING ON SHORT-LIST OF CANDIDATES
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7. (C) The Patriarch, as usual, did not say much in his
meeting with the ministers, Checchia reported. The ministers
stressed the critical role of Lebanon's Christians.
Archbishop Samir Mazloum (whom we note is close to March 8
figure Suleiman Franjieh) reported on the Patriarch's
committee with Christian leaders to come up with a short-list
of candidates, which they hoped to complete by October 27.
The list then would be submitted to the top five Christian
leaders for their approval, then to the Patriarch, and
finally to Speaker Berri and majority leader Saad Hariri.

TOUGH MESSAGE ON UNIFIL
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8. (C) Checchia confirmed that there was strong European
resolve not to back down on UNIFIL. D'Alema reportedly sent
a clear message that Italian troops would not leave Lebanon
if the situation deteriorates, dispelling any perception that
European troops in UNIFIL could be held hostage by those
trying to push for a consensus candidate.

SUPPORT FOR SINIORA BORDER INITIATIVE
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9. (C) Checchia confirmed that PM Siniora had raised the idea
of a hybrid border security force with Arab participation and
European technical assistance, adding it would be difficult
for the Syrians to object. Checchia agreed that FM
Moratino's proposal for a EU-Syria border initiative was a
bad idea.
FELTMAN