LEBANON: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: VIEWS ON KEY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001664 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: VIEWS ON KEY ISSUES REF: IIR 6 857 0083 07 TRANSLATION OF AL-JAISH INTERVIEW WITH MICHEL SLEIMAN SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) What are the views of the candidates for president on issues such as Hizballah, Syria, UN resolutions, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and revising Lebanon's election law? To answer that, embassy prepared the following summary of key candidates' views based on a review of source material including presidential platforms for the few candidates who have issued them, previous speeches and private conversations. All candidates say they would pursue normalization of relations with Syria and the disarmament of Hizballah. They make the statements required of Lebanese politicians about countering Israeli aggression. March 14 candidates emphasize the validity of choosing a president with an absolute majority vote, the need for democracy and sovereignty, and their commitment to international resolutions. Opposition candidates emphasize the need to include the opposition in government and to cooperate more with Hizballah and Syria. Consensus candidates typically attempt to express views in the middle. End summary. MARCH 14 CANDIDATES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) NASSIB LAHOUD: Former MP Nassib Lahoud announced his candidacy in mid-September, arguing that only a March 14 president (elected if necessary with an absolute majority) could lead to a democratic, modern, and independent nation and represent all Lebanese. He has close family and business ties with the Saudis, and speaks fondly of his stint as Ambassador to the United States. Lahoud promised to purse an "honorable internal compromise" based on the Taif Agreement, national dialogue, and Arab solidarity. He pledged to initiate a process to bring Hizballah,s arms into a state security framework with prevent hostilities with Israel, combat terrorism, and forestall economic deterioration and migration. Lahoud is the only candidate not to link the disarmament of Hizballah to the return of Shebaa Farms. He called for normalizing relations with Syria with: an exchange of ambassadors; pledges of mutual non-interference; closure of illegal border crossings; demarcation of the border; and the return of Lebanese prisoners. Lahoud considers UNSCR 1701 "a comprehensive and appropriate framework" for putting an end to Israeli aggression, freeing Lebanese prisoners from Israeli jails, and regaining Shebaa farms." (www.nassiblahoud.org, Arabic only) ¶3. (SBU) BOUTROS HARB: March 14 MP Boutros Harb announced his program in late August. While he will participate in a vote with an absolute majority, he will only stand as a candidate if he can gain the support of two-thirds of the deputies; he believes the president must not exclude national leaders despite fundamental differences, and he argues that any president selected through an international or domestic political deal will not be effective. Harb said he would resume the 2006 National Dialogue and outlined a six-year plan to unite political factions. He envisioned incorporating Hizballah's arms into the army and forming a national security strategy to resist Israel. He called for "Lebanese-Syrian reconciliation" based on non-interference in domestic affairs, the establishment of diplomatic ties, and demarcation and control of the border. In addition, Harb said Israel should place Shebaa farms under UN control and free Lebanese prisoners. He opposes naturalizing Palestinian refugees and endorsed bringing the camps under state control. Harb underscored his commitment to all UN resolutions (including 1559 and 1701) and the deployment of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, and called the Special Tribunal a tool for achieving justice. (No web site, written platform was sent to NEA/ELA.) OPPOSITION CANDIDATES -------------- ¶4. (SBU) MICHEL AOUN: General Michel Aoun announced his candidacy in March 2007. The media viewed his October 2006 speech commemorating his 1990 military removal from the office of Prime Minister as his presidential platform. Aoun argued then that the Siniora government is illegitimate; he called for formation of a national unity government, passage of a new electoral law, and appointment of a constitutional BEIRUT 00001664 002 OF 003 council prior to the election of a new president. A new government could overturn the decrees issued by the "illegitimate" Siniora government, including the one calling for the establishment of the Special Tribunal. He has suggested he would hold politicians accountable for misusing public funds. Aoun considered his memorandum of understanding with Hizballah as a springboard for dialogue and the resolution of national disputes, and argued that Hizballah will give up its arms upon formation of a national security strategy. He opposed nationalizing Palestinians and called for disarming the camps and placing them under state control. ¶5. (SBU) Aoun said he would pursue "balanced" diplomatic ties with Syria based on institutional relationships, and would encourage Damascus to feel secure and to profit from Lebanese independence; he asked Israel to acknowledge that Shebaa is Lebanese and to free Lebanese prisoners. Aoun asked Israel to cease its violations of Lebanese airspace and waters, to withdraw from occupied Shebaa Farms and Ghajjar, and to release Lebanese prisoners allegedly held in Syria. While he called for an investigation to reveal the truth about the assassinations and bombings directed at politicians and journalists, Aoun stopped short of recognizing the Special Tribunal. Aoun employs a council of economic advisors who would focus on improving Lebanon's competitiveness rather than on reducing national debt. (See www.tayyar.org, and a translation of Aoun's 2006 speech sent to NEA/ELA.) ¶6. (SBU) JEAN OBEID: Former MP and Foreign Minister Jean Obeid has not announced his candidacy or spoken publicly about his vision for Lebanon, but has argued for including the opposition in the government. His personal ties to former Syrian President Hafez Assad and his work as Syrian and Arab affairs advisor to Lebanese Presidents Sarkis and Amine Gemayel indicate he would pursue a closer relationship with Syria. As Foreign Minister, Obeid was a hard-line advocate for a comprehensive Arab peace agreement with Israel, the withdrawal of Israel from Lebanese and Syrian territories, and the return of Palestinians to their own state based in Jerusalem. Obeid has said he would bring Hizballah into the state, but did not describe a mechanism to do so. In private conversations, he supported the UNSCRs and the Special Tribunal. (No web site or written platform available.) CONSENSUS CANDIDATES -------------- ¶7. (SBU) ROBERT GHANEM: Biqa' MP and March 14 latecomer (though he now claims not to represent March 14) Robert Ghanem in mid-August reissued a platform prepared in 2004. He proposed a comprehensive "salvation plan" for national unity, dialogue, and the transition to a civil rather than a sectarian state. His proposed strategic defense council would devise a national defense strategy, decide how to respond to any Israeli aggression, and bring Hizballah's arms under state control. Ghanem argued that a Lebanese-Syrian diplomatic relationship based on sovereignty, equality, justice, and institutions would help Lebanon reclaim Shebaa farms and demarcate the border. He reiterated his commitment to UN and Arab League resolutions, but condemned the UN creation -- rather than the Lebanese creation -- of the Special Tribunal as divisive. (www.robertghanem.com) ¶8. (SBU) MICHEL SLEIMAN: Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Michel Sleiman told the press his current military position bars him from candidacy and that an interim military government would be ineffective, but privately said he would serve in the event of a deadlock. Sleiman in May asked U.S. officials to push March 14 to compromise in order to forestall violence. Promoted ahead of his peers by Syrian military officers, Sleiman's emphasis on army unity and neutrality in March 2005 permitted the demonstrations of the Cedar Revolution, but in January 2007 nearly allowed sectarian riots to spin out of control. In a February 2007 "Al-Jaish" interview, he emphasized the need for national consensus and inclusion of all sects in a legitimate government. Sleiman said arms must be under the exclusive control of the government, expressed gratitude for foreign military support and the desire to cooperate in the global war on terror, and criticized the government for not procuring modern weaponry. Sleiman has said the military's staff and budget are inadequate, indicating he would increase both. (Ref) BEIRUT 00001664 003 OF 003 ¶9. (SBU) CHARLES RIZK: Minister of Justice Rizk has not announced his candidacy but has publicly stated his desire to be president. Included in the cabinet as a confidante of President Emile Lahoud and careful not to criticize the opposition, since the July 2006 war he stopped his regular meetings with Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and is perceived as being closer to March 14 than March 8. He was instrumental in the creation of the Special Tribunal, and has said the next president must implement the Tribunal. In a September "Monday Morning" article he outlined the key issues the next president will face. Rizk supported creation of an election law reconciling political choice with confessional affiliation, and a governing process in which a confessionally inclusive absolute majority can implement decisions. Rizk called for finding a strategy to incorporate Hizballah's arms into the government and control the Palestinian camps. He charged the next president with revitalizing the economy to bring back the Lebanese diaspora. (No website or platform available.) ¶10. (SBU) RIAD SALAMEH: While no party has called Central Bank of Lebanon (CBL) Governor Riad Salameh its candidate, he has repeatedly expressed interest in the position. In January former French President Chirac used the Paris III donor conference to raise Salameh's profile, in February Salameh in speeches and an interview with "La Revue du Liban" expressed interest in the presidency, and this summer Salameh used comments about his strategy in the event of a second government to draw attention to his leadership. These comments were well received by the banking and business communities. Salameh emphasized his impartial leadership at the CBL as a model for political leaders, and he argued that the government must reach consensus before it acts, even in urgent economic reforms. Salameh emphasized the need to strengthen constitutional institutions. Under Salameh the CBL and Lebanese banks have developed close ties with their Syrian counterparts, and Salameh's deputies travel frequently to Syria for consultations, indicating he could pursue a closer relationship as president. He has not publicly announced a security policy. (No website or platform available.) FELTMAN