LEBANON: SWISS ENVOY SEES INITIATIVE STALLED DUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001644

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/YERGER
STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SWISS ENVOY SEES INITIATIVE STALLED DUE
TO THE LACK OF HIZBALLAH PARTICIPATION


Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador. Reason: Section 1.4 (b
) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) During an October 19 meeting with the Ambassador,
Swiss Special Envoy to Lebanon Didier Pfirter said it was
"unlikely" that a November meeting to further the Swiss
initiative to resolve Lebanon's political crisis would take
place. The main reason for the lack of optimism was the
uncertainty of Hizballah participation. Hizballah knows the
meeting's main focus will be on its disarmament and was
playing a "defensive strategy" to stall for time. Pfirter
said the clock is ticking against March 14, and if it does
not push forward with a favorable presidential candidate
before November 14, it could lose political cohesion within
its ranks and find itself on the losing side of the political
equation. End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador, DCM, and Poloff, met with Swiss
Special Envoy to Lebanon Didier Pfirter and Assistant Kim
Sitzler at the Ambassador's office on October 19.

SWISS ENVOY SEES INITIATIVE STALLED
DUE TO THE LACK OF HIZBALLAH PARTICIPATION
--------------


3. (C) Swiss Special Envoy Didier Pfirter gave his frank
outlook of the Swiss initiative to resolve the Lebanese
political crisis. He said it was "unlikely" that a proposed
November meeting to further the Swiss initiative would take
place. Pfirter said the main reason for his lack of optimism
was the uncertainty of Hizballah's participation, given the
announcement by Ali Fayyad (who usually represents Hizballah
in the Swiss initiative) that he could not attend. Hizballah
knows the meeting's main focus will be on its disarmament and
security matters, subjects Hizballah would like to avoid.
Overall, Hizballah is playing a "defensive strategy" to stall
for time. It prefers, Pfirter believes, the current political
stalemate to a political compromise that could lead to an
uncertain political outcome, i.e., a Lebanese government that
would be willing to take on the thorny issue of disarming
Hizballah.


4. (C) In Pfirter's opinion, Hizballah's stalling tactics to
maintain the political stalemate seem to be working, dividing
March 14, and increasing Hizballah's influence in naming the
next presidential candidate. Pfirter said the clock is
ticking against March 14, and if it does not push forward for
a pro-March 14 presidential candidate before November 14, it
could lose political cohesion within its ranks and find
itself on the losing side of the political equation. The
Ambassador agreed that March 14 most maintain pressure to
elect a pro-March 14 president to counter the March 8
delaying tactics.

AOUN IS BETTER THAN NO PRESIDENT
--------------


5. (C) According to Pfirter, Michel Aoun also sees great
benefit in drawing out the presidential election process.
Aoun has made his game plan clear, which is to stall the
presidential election to such an extent that he becomes the
only compromise candidate standing. Pfirter lamented Aoun's
election tactics, but in the end preferred an Aoun presidency
to the political vacuum of having no president at all.
Pfirter remarked, at least Aoun "would have to do something
on the issue of disarming Hizballah."

SPEAKER BERRI NEEDS COMPROMISE CANDIDATE
--------------


6. (C) Pfirter stated that besides March 14, Speaker Nabih
Berri also has a lot to lose if no compromise candidate can
be reached. Berri is interested in finding a compromise
candidate in order to save his own political position. The
longer the presidency remains unfilled, the more power drifts
to PM Siniora, especially as long as Berri does not recognize
the cabinet and thus cannot call parliamentary sessions in
which the cabinet might attend. Pfirter thought that Berri's
meetings with MP Saad Hariri were productive in reaching an

BEIRUT 00001644 002 OF 002


understanding on the selection of a compromise candidate.
However, the Ambassador advised Pfirter to be skeptical about
Berri's so-called political agreements, whereby if the
initiative fails, he blames everyone but himself for reneging
on the deal. Pfirter understood Berri's usual tactics and
commented that no one, in March 14 or March 8 political
circles, is willing to allow Berri to be the sole "kingmaker"
in selecting the next president.

PFIRTER: SINIORA MIGHT SEE JOB SECURITY
IN STALEMATE
--------------


7. (C) Pfirter said that, in his recent meeting with PM
Siniora, it seemed to him that Siniora gave the strange
impression that "playing for time might be a good thing."
Siniora wants to keep the PM position and the election of a
compromise president would eventually lead to the formation
of a new cabinet. In Pfirter's opinion, Siniora might be
looking over his shoulder at Saad Hariri's ambition to become
Prime Minister and feels, in this case, that the delay in the
selection of next president might prove more of benefit to
him in retaining the PM job than a political curse producing
a divided government. The Ambassador said that Siniora has
never given us the impression of wanting to retain the
position in the current situation.

SLEIMAN NOT THE ANSWER TO THE
PRESIDENTIAL QUESTION
--------------


8. (C) Pfirter gave his somewhat negative impressions on
Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) General Michel Sleiman and of his
chances of being elected as the "compromise candidate." He
said that while Sleiman has good instincts for political
survival and is a true nationalist, he does not seem to have
the strong "intellectual" background required to put forward
a clear vision for Lebanon's future that would make him the
ideal candidate for president. Also, there is some question
about how much public support he really has. Recent polls
show only single digit support for his candidacy, which calls
into question whether Sleiman is a true compromise candidate.


CHRISTIANS FORFEITING CHANCE TO
REGAIN POLITICAL POSITION
--------------


9. (C) In conclusion, Pfirter reiterated that time is not on
the side of March 14. It needs to unite behind a
presidential candidate and press its advantage now, or face
the consequences of having to accept a compromise candidate
that is closely aligned to March 8. Also, he thought the
Christians, as a political entity, were passing up a golden
opportunity to regain political ground, lost after the civil
war years and the Ta'if Agreement, by not being unified.
Pfirter stated that the Christian community in Lebanon needs
a "moral leader" who can bring Christians together and
counter the current Sunni-Shia political dynamic that has
developed in the country.
FELTMAN