UN ENVOY ON HIZBALLAH'S 'OPENNESS' REGARDING

S E C R E T BEIRUT 001439 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM LE SY SUBJECT: UN ENVOY ON HIZBALLAH'S 'OPENNESS' REGARDING LEBANON'S PRESIDENCY REF: BEIRUT 1424 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Geir Pedersen, meeting with the Ambassador on 9/18, claimed to have detected a new openness by Hizballah regarding Lebanon's presidential elections when he met with his "usual contact" (known to be Wafiq Safa, Hizballah's security chief) earlier that day. Yes, he said, Hizballah still goes through the motions of supporting Michel Aoun. But Safa "all but admitted" that Aoun will be sacrificed in any deal-making. Hizballah would accept LAF Commander Michel Sleiman as the fall-back. Safa argued that March 8-Aoun forces have shown good will through two key concessions -- first, abandoning the demand for a national unity government now, and, second, agreeing to look beyond Aoun. So it is now time for March 14 to agree on Sleiman, Safa told Pedersen. ¶2. (S) What surprised Pedersen was Safa's answer to his question about what happens if March 14 refuses to accept Sleiman. Safa mused that March 8 forces could also consider other potential consensus candidates: Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh; former ministers Jean Obeid, Fares Bouez, Demianos Kattar, and Michel Edde; West Biqa' MP Robert Ghanem. Any of these might be possible. Noting that most of the names mentioned would be unacceptable to March 14, Pedersen said that he was encouraged by the inclusion of Ghanem's name: Ghanem, while not part of the original March 14 movement, signed all March 14 petitions regarding the Special Tribunal, and he's had close relations with the Hariri family and Walid Jumblatt. Pedersen said that he left the meeting with Safa more optimistic that a decent consensus solution is possible. ¶3. (S) Safa also told Pedersen that Hizballah could think beyond even that list of names, as long as March 14 would agree that no March 14 candidates be elected. Nassib Lahoud, Boutros Harb, and Nayla Mouawad are "red lines" for them, Pedersen noted; "even Boutros is unacceptable," he underscored. Safa did not mention Charles Rizk, and Pedersen said that he did not volunteer any names himself. Pedersen agreed with the Ambassador that the election of a candidate like Ghanem solves nothing; it prevents a new crisis over the presidency, but the same problems plaguing Lebanon today will become more acute during the subsequent government formation exercise. ¶4. (S) Adding his own voice to a growing chorus, Pedersen said that Nassib Lahoud is the only real leader of the entire pack of candidates. But the only way Nassib will be elected, Pedersen said, is if there is some "grand regional deal" with Syria and/or Iran. If Robert Ghanem is held out as a serious consensus choice, Pedersen did not believe that March 14 would be able to muster the absolute majority number of votes for Nassib in a situation where March 8-Aoun MPs boycott the parliament. If Hizballah is serious about permitting Ghanem to win, then Ghanem is the front-runner, Pedersen declared. (Walid Jumblatt, meeting separately with the Ambassador on 9/18, expressed suspicions about Ghanem, claiming that Ghanem has "fishy relations" with a Syrian businessman named Osman Aidi. See reftel for our comments on Ghanem.) ¶5. (S) Pedersen added that he had reported to Safa that Saad Hariri had mentioned hoping to meet with Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in the coming days in SIPDIS order to discuss the presidency. Safa demurred, saying that Hizballah would continue to have Berri be the frontman for March 8 discussions on the presidency. FELTMAN