LEBANON: PM WILL RECONSIDER INTERNATIONAL BORDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001420

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM WILL RECONSIDER INTERNATIONAL BORDER
MISSION PROPOSAL

REF: SECSTATE 128039

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) During a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador,
Prime Minister Siniora said that he had not been given a copy
of the Spanish proposal for an EU border mission. Worried
about Syria's ability to manipulate the negotiations in its
own favor, the PM agreed that the GOL should be given an
opportunity to provide input on the crafting of such a
proposal. Returning to his previously stated preference for
a hybrid Arab-EU force, the PM said he would first reach out
to contacts within the Arab League, Egypt and Saudi Arabia
for their comments. He would then approach Spanish FM
Moratinos with some concrete suggestions. For example,
consistent with his general philosophy that Syria should "pay
in advance" for any engagement, he recommends requiring the
Syrians to close armed Palestinian camps on the border near
Helwa and Qosaya before any border cooperation, engagement,
or technical assistance along the Spanish proposal takes
place. The PM was very pessimistic about making real
progress with the Syrians through previous proposals outlined
by the EU.


2. (C) The PM also mentioned that, following up on our
request that Lebanon make the first contribution, he had
spoken with the UN SYG about transferring Lebanese funding
into an account established by the UN for the Special
Tribunal. It was clearly Siniora's impression that this
account has still not been opened. Speaking of French FM's
recent trip to Beirut, the PM said he assured Kuchner that
"while his trips didn't actually produce anything, they
served as a catalyst for discussion." Finally, the PM
confirmed early reports that the Fatah al-Islam spokesman,
Abu Salim Taha, had been captured alive in the northern
Lebanese town of Terbol. End Summary.

HADN'T SEEN COPY OF SPANISH BORDER MISSION PROPOSAL
--------------


3. (S/NF) The Prime Minister was accompanied by advisors
Ambassador Mohamad Chatah and Rola Noureddine. The three
confirmed that they had not been given a copy of Spanish FM
Miguel Angel Moratinos's paper distributed within the EU
earlier this week. They knew that the border control issue
was one of five priorities identified by Moratinos, but they
had seen nothing in greater detail. They were surprised to
learn that EU discussions on the draft proposal had
progressed so far without the benefit of GOL input. The PM
and Chatah then reiterated their support for the LIBAT
report's proposed "border control experts," which they are
sure the Syrians will reject because of the call for
monitoring activities.


4. (S/NF) The Ambassador explained our concerns with
Moratinos' proposal, which seemed designed not to address
smuggling but provide a pretext for European engagement with
Damascus. He asked Siniora to provide an alternative to the
Spanish idea of technical assistance by putting forth an
immediate Lebanese plan or request for international
monitoring on the Lebanese side. The USG is prepared to help
diplomatically, politically, and financially to see that
Siniora's proposal would receive a positive response. The PM
agreed but mentioned a number of consultations he would make
before proceeding. He still favors the idea of a hybrid
Arab-EU border monitoring mission, and he promised to reach
out to contacts in the Arab League, Egypt and Saudi Arabia
for their comments. He will coordinate with the Arab
countries.


5. (S/NF) As for the Spanish idea of technical assistance to
the Syrians, Siniora mused about linking its acceptance to
firm conditions. Consistent with his general approach that
Syria should "pay up front," Siniora said that he would tell
Moratinos that he should insist on firm conditions from to
ensure that this does not turn out to be a win/lose situation
for Syria and the international community. The PM proposed
that, before the Spanish proposal moves forward, the Syrians
should seal a short stretch of the Lebanese border between
Helwa and Qosaya (an area notorious for smuggling arms and

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fighters into PFLP-GC bases that sit on the Lebanese side of
that part of the border). Cessation of Syrian support for
the PFLP-GC bases near Helwa and Qosaya could be the trigger
for the EU to proceed with offering the technical assistant
proposed by Moratinos, the PM noted. The PM agreed to reach
out to Moratinos with this message, but he did not indicate a
specific time frame.

ACCOUNT FOR THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL
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6. (C) Following up on a previous request from the USG, the
PM also mentioned that he had spoken with the UN SYG about
transferring Lebanese funding into an account established by
the UN for the Special Tribunal. According to the PM, this
is still being worked on, and it is clearly his impression
that this account has still not been opened. (Given the need
to transfer USG funds into this account before the end of the
fiscal year and our hope that Lebanon will make the first
contribution, this matter may need to be pursued further in
New York.)

CONSOLING KUCHNER?
--------------


7. (C) The PM gave a readout of FM Kuchner's recent visit to
Beirut, which once again failed to produce any major
breakthroughs. The PM acted as if he was consoling Kuchner,
"I told him his trips don't produce much, but your presence
serves as a catalyst." "Yes, but a catalyst for what?"
wondered Chatah. The PM said Kuchner wanted to come to
Beirut to "make some noise," he had done so, and so now he
should leave content. The PM also wondered about others
coming to town "to make noise" including Sudan's Special
Envoy Mohammed Ismail. Though it appears the Sudanese have
more than enough on their own plate to keep them busy, the PM
responded diplomatically that at least it demonstrated Arab
interest in Lebanon.

MOSCOW TO PROVIDE MIL AID?
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador asked about the 9/14 visit of Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Saltanov to Beirut. While the PM and
the Ambassador discussed recent pessimistic statements by the
Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, who the PM described as an
"old-school Soviet thinker," the PM mentioned that, according
to Saltanov, the Kremlin and Putin had actually been
supportive of Lebanon and had recently promised some military
assistance. When asked if this support from Moscow would
actually stretch to New York and into the Security Council
chamber for future UN resolutions on Lebanon, the PM had no
reply. (Minister of Defense Elias Murr constantly downplays
the rumors of pending Russian military assistance to Lebanon.
We will explore with him and others whether anything is
actually happening on this front.)

CONFIRMING REPORTS OF FAI CAPTURE
--------------


9. (S/NF) The Prime Minister also mentioned that he had
received early reports that FAI's spokesman Salim Abu Taha
had been captured alive in the mountains outside of Terbol, a
northern Lebanese town. DAO contacts add that Taha and three
others (one Syrian, one Saudi, and one Tunisian) are being
held now by the LAF. Further reports to follow via septel.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) The Prime Minister, deprived of his caffeine jolts
during Ramadan, was in a mellow mood this Saturday morning in
the Serial. Despite having received an envoy from Moratinos
earlier this week, he seemed more puzzled than upset about
the Spanish proposal for border technical assistance
proceeding without any Lebanese input. While he shared fully
our skepticism about the value of the proposal and our
suspicions about Moratinos' real aims, his sense of urgency
in pushing his own monitoring proposal as an alternative
remains uncertain. He noted in almost wistful tones that
there had been Arab interest in his idea but that the Arab
League had never pursued the matter as promised. Our
impression was that, analytically, he is fully on board with
our thinking regarding the border. But, politically, he sees

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his term of office ending in ten weeks (with his resignation
triggered by the start of a new presidential term). We don't
think he relishes entering into another battle now, unless he
is assured of success. We believe that encouragement from
the Arab League and other Arab states would help embolden him
to make an explicit request now for international monitors.


11. (C) As for putting Moratinos' proposal, we like
Siniora's specific suggestion: the Syrians should pay up
front. If the Syrians demonstrate unprecedented seriousness
by sealing a small but strategic portion of the border and by
withdrawing support from PFLP-GC bases in the Qosaya and
Helwa areas of the Biqa', then the EU might contemplate some
technical assistance on the Syrian side of the border. Given
what a politically significant accomplishment closure of the
PFLP-GC bases would be for Lebanon, however, we cannot
imagine Syria deciding to shut down Qosaya and Helwa --
meaning Siniora's conditions would relegate Moratinos'
proposal to a state of suspended animation permanently.
FELTMAN