LEBANON: PM WILL RECONSIDER INTERNATIONAL BORDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 001420 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL IS LE SY SUBJECT: LEBANON: PM WILL RECONSIDER INTERNATIONAL BORDER MISSION PROPOSAL REF: SECSTATE 128039 Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) During a September 15 meeting with the Ambassador, Prime Minister Siniora said that he had not been given a copy of the Spanish proposal for an EU border mission. Worried about Syria's ability to manipulate the negotiations in its own favor, the PM agreed that the GOL should be given an opportunity to provide input on the crafting of such a proposal. Returning to his previously stated preference for a hybrid Arab-EU force, the PM said he would first reach out to contacts within the Arab League, Egypt and Saudi Arabia for their comments. He would then approach Spanish FM Moratinos with some concrete suggestions. For example, consistent with his general philosophy that Syria should "pay in advance" for any engagement, he recommends requiring the Syrians to close armed Palestinian camps on the border near Helwa and Qosaya before any border cooperation, engagement, or technical assistance along the Spanish proposal takes place. The PM was very pessimistic about making real progress with the Syrians through previous proposals outlined by the EU. ¶2. (C) The PM also mentioned that, following up on our request that Lebanon make the first contribution, he had spoken with the UN SYG about transferring Lebanese funding into an account established by the UN for the Special Tribunal. It was clearly Siniora's impression that this account has still not been opened. Speaking of French FM's recent trip to Beirut, the PM said he assured Kuchner that "while his trips didn't actually produce anything, they served as a catalyst for discussion." Finally, the PM confirmed early reports that the Fatah al-Islam spokesman, Abu Salim Taha, had been captured alive in the northern Lebanese town of Terbol. End Summary. HADN'T SEEN COPY OF SPANISH BORDER MISSION PROPOSAL -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) The Prime Minister was accompanied by advisors Ambassador Mohamad Chatah and Rola Noureddine. The three confirmed that they had not been given a copy of Spanish FM Miguel Angel Moratinos's paper distributed within the EU earlier this week. They knew that the border control issue was one of five priorities identified by Moratinos, but they had seen nothing in greater detail. They were surprised to learn that EU discussions on the draft proposal had progressed so far without the benefit of GOL input. The PM and Chatah then reiterated their support for the LIBAT report's proposed "border control experts," which they are sure the Syrians will reject because of the call for monitoring activities. ¶4. (S/NF) The Ambassador explained our concerns with Moratinos' proposal, which seemed designed not to address smuggling but provide a pretext for European engagement with Damascus. He asked Siniora to provide an alternative to the Spanish idea of technical assistance by putting forth an immediate Lebanese plan or request for international monitoring on the Lebanese side. The USG is prepared to help diplomatically, politically, and financially to see that Siniora's proposal would receive a positive response. The PM agreed but mentioned a number of consultations he would make before proceeding. He still favors the idea of a hybrid Arab-EU border monitoring mission, and he promised to reach out to contacts in the Arab League, Egypt and Saudi Arabia for their comments. He will coordinate with the Arab countries. ¶5. (S/NF) As for the Spanish idea of technical assistance to the Syrians, Siniora mused about linking its acceptance to firm conditions. Consistent with his general approach that Syria should "pay up front," Siniora said that he would tell Moratinos that he should insist on firm conditions from to ensure that this does not turn out to be a win/lose situation for Syria and the international community. The PM proposed that, before the Spanish proposal moves forward, the Syrians should seal a short stretch of the Lebanese border between Helwa and Qosaya (an area notorious for smuggling arms and BEIRUT 00001420 002 OF 003 fighters into PFLP-GC bases that sit on the Lebanese side of that part of the border). Cessation of Syrian support for the PFLP-GC bases near Helwa and Qosaya could be the trigger for the EU to proceed with offering the technical assistant proposed by Moratinos, the PM noted. The PM agreed to reach out to Moratinos with this message, but he did not indicate a specific time frame. ACCOUNT FOR THE SPECIAL TRIBUNAL -------------- ¶6. (C) Following up on a previous request from the USG, the PM also mentioned that he had spoken with the UN SYG about transferring Lebanese funding into an account established by the UN for the Special Tribunal. According to the PM, this is still being worked on, and it is clearly his impression that this account has still not been opened. (Given the need to transfer USG funds into this account before the end of the fiscal year and our hope that Lebanon will make the first contribution, this matter may need to be pursued further in New York.) CONSOLING KUCHNER? -------------- ¶7. (C) The PM gave a readout of FM Kuchner's recent visit to Beirut, which once again failed to produce any major breakthroughs. The PM acted as if he was consoling Kuchner, "I told him his trips don't produce much, but your presence serves as a catalyst." "Yes, but a catalyst for what?" wondered Chatah. The PM said Kuchner wanted to come to Beirut to "make some noise," he had done so, and so now he should leave content. The PM also wondered about others coming to town "to make noise" including Sudan's Special Envoy Mohammed Ismail. Though it appears the Sudanese have more than enough on their own plate to keep them busy, the PM responded diplomatically that at least it demonstrated Arab interest in Lebanon. MOSCOW TO PROVIDE MIL AID? -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked about the 9/14 visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Saltanov to Beirut. While the PM and the Ambassador discussed recent pessimistic statements by the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, who the PM described as an "old-school Soviet thinker," the PM mentioned that, according to Saltanov, the Kremlin and Putin had actually been supportive of Lebanon and had recently promised some military assistance. When asked if this support from Moscow would actually stretch to New York and into the Security Council chamber for future UN resolutions on Lebanon, the PM had no reply. (Minister of Defense Elias Murr constantly downplays the rumors of pending Russian military assistance to Lebanon. We will explore with him and others whether anything is actually happening on this front.) CONFIRMING REPORTS OF FAI CAPTURE -------------- ¶9. (S/NF) The Prime Minister also mentioned that he had received early reports that FAI's spokesman Salim Abu Taha had been captured alive in the mountains outside of Terbol, a northern Lebanese town. DAO contacts add that Taha and three others (one Syrian, one Saudi, and one Tunisian) are being held now by the LAF. Further reports to follow via septel. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) The Prime Minister, deprived of his caffeine jolts during Ramadan, was in a mellow mood this Saturday morning in the Serial. Despite having received an envoy from Moratinos earlier this week, he seemed more puzzled than upset about the Spanish proposal for border technical assistance proceeding without any Lebanese input. While he shared fully our skepticism about the value of the proposal and our suspicions about Moratinos' real aims, his sense of urgency in pushing his own monitoring proposal as an alternative remains uncertain. He noted in almost wistful tones that there had been Arab interest in his idea but that the Arab League had never pursued the matter as promised. Our impression was that, analytically, he is fully on board with our thinking regarding the border. But, politically, he sees BEIRUT 00001420 003 OF 003 his term of office ending in ten weeks (with his resignation triggered by the start of a new presidential term). We don't think he relishes entering into another battle now, unless he is assured of success. We believe that encouragement from the Arab League and other Arab states would help embolden him to make an explicit request now for international monitors. ¶11. (C) As for putting Moratinos' proposal, we like Siniora's specific suggestion: the Syrians should pay up front. If the Syrians demonstrate unprecedented seriousness by sealing a small but strategic portion of the border and by withdrawing support from PFLP-GC bases in the Qosaya and Helwa areas of the Biqa', then the EU might contemplate some technical assistance on the Syrian side of the border. Given what a politically significant accomplishment closure of the PFLP-GC bases would be for Lebanon, however, we cannot imagine Syria deciding to shut down Qosaya and Helwa -- meaning Siniora's conditions would relegate Moratinos' proposal to a state of suspended animation permanently. FELTMAN