LEBANON: SINIORA: ELECTIONS PARAMOUNT, WITHOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001408

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SINIORA: ELECTIONS PARAMOUNT, WITHOUT
AMENDMENTS OR FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

REF: 1384

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) PM Siniora seemed surprisingly optimistic about the
prospects for selecting a credible compromise presidential
candidate in a September 12 meeting with visiting EEB PDAS
Elizabeth Dibble. He reiterated his opposition to amending
the constitution and stressed the election must be held
without foreign interference. Although his government has
been under a constant barrage of political crises, the
Lebanese economy has weathered the storm unexpectedly well.
Securing Lebanon's freedom and democratic institutions will
allow it to unleash its great economic potential. End
summary.

MUCH WORK AHEAD AT NAHR AL-BARID
--------------


2. (C) An upbeat Siniora, accompanied by senior advisors
Mohamad Chatah and Rola Noureddine met September 12 with the
Ambassador, visiting EEB PDAS Elizabeth Dibble and NEA/ELA
Deputy Director Stephen Newhouse, Pol/Econ Chief and EconOff
at the PM's office at the Grand Serail. Thwarting all of our
repeated and fevered attempts to keep the conversation
focused on the economic/commercial agenda PDAS Dibble had
come to Lebanon exclusively to address, the PM turned first
to Nahr al-Barid. Siniora credited GOL resolve and
determination in bringing the crisis to an end -- the first
time in 40 years that the Lebanese state acted autonomously,
he said. It was also the first time the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) entered a Palestinian camp. A poorly trained
and badly equipped army entered what was basically a "street
war" of the "Blackhawk Down" variety, and emerged united and
victorious, he stated proudly.


3. (C) The September 10 donors' conference (reftel) for
reconstruction in and around the camp was a huge success, he
continued, both in terms of attendance and pledges. Siniora
thanked the US for its contribution, adding that it sent a
good message, but much more needs to be done. Reconstruction
of the camp was a necessary operation; without it Lebanon
would face a catastrophe, especially with respect to the 11
other Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. Siniora added
that for the past two years his government has made a
determined effort to improve its relationship with the
Palestinians and the conditions inside the camps to avoid
creating the desperation that led to the creation of groups
like Fatah al-Islam (FAI).

CONTINUAL CRISIS, BUT GREAT ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
-------------- -


4. (C) For the past three years (i.e., since the extension of
President Lahoud's mandate) the GOL has been operating as if
it were under a gun, Siniora continued, citing the string of
political assassinations, explosions, government crises, the
2006 war, and, most recently, Nahr al-Barid. As a result,
his government has been operating in a continual crisis mode,
but it has nevertheless been able to overcome obstacles such
as the opposition's refusal to accept the Special Tribunal,
its demands for a national unity government, and now the
conflict with extremists at Nahr al-Barid. He thanked the US
for its strong support, both politically and in terms of
financial and other assistance.


5. (C) Despite all these challenges, Lebanon's economy
continues to demonstrate its resiliency, Siniora stressed,
turning at last (however briefly) to the purpose of PDAS
Dibble's visit. He agreed with PDAS Dibble on the country's
enormous economic potential. However, he added, the exodus
of highly qualified people was troubling. Freedom and
democracy are important political as well as economic values,
he said, a point he made earlier in the week in his address
to Lebanese businesses participating in the fifth Lebanese
Business Opportunities forum. Both agreed that Lebanon
offers unique opportunities because of its geographic
location, size, well-known hospitality, and multi-lingual
(Arab, French, English) environment.

BEIRUT 00001408 002 OF 002



FOCUS ON PRESIDENCY
--------------


6. (C) Shifting to politics, Siniora called the presidency
the "only pertinent issue; the most important thing is to
have elections." Otherwise, he warned, it would be a major
blow to democracy and freedom in Lebanon and could "trigger"
major changes in the country. He reiterated his strong
opposition to any further tinkering with Lebanon's
constitution, emphasizing instead the need to change the
culture of how the constitution is viewed. If the
constitution is amended now to permit LAF Commander Sleiman
or Central Bank Governor Salameh to become president, then it
becomes that much easier again six years from now to amend
the constitution for an extension or for another army
commander to become head of state. It is time to end two
decades of "bad behavior" and set the right precedent for
future presidential elections, he said, stressing that the
most important thing is that the election be held free from
foreign interference.


7. (C) Regarding the opposition's offer to forgo demands for
a national unity government in return for the majority's
acceptance of a mandatory two-thirds quorum, Siniora said
Parliament Speaker Berri had merely "repackaged an expired
product." The best response in his view was to take the idea
and build on it. Since both sides agreed on the need to find
a compromise, they should drop all preconditions and sit down
and talk. The Ambassador agreed, stressing that the US, like
France, also welcome the majority and opposition reaching a
compromise on the president, but not as a result of
intimidation or threats.


8. (C) Siniora, who had just met with Sudanese presidential
envoy Mohamad Othman Ismail, said the envoy told him he had
received indications that the opposition was interested in
coming to terms on the issue of the presidency. Siniora also
stressed the important role of the Christians in Lebanon's
complicated political mosaic, noting that they should be the
keenest to hold elections within the constitutional
timeframe. "Constructive competition" among Lebanon's
various confessional groups is a useful aspect of Lebanese
politics, especially if it brought out the best each group
had to offer.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Siniora, joking with his staff and visitors, was
clearly in a good mood. Perhaps it was the LAF's
long-awaited success in Nahr al-Barid, or the successful
donors' conference, or perhaps the long line of diplomatic
envoys making their way to the Grand Serail was the sugar
that made the bear dance. Whatever the cause, his upbeat
assessment of the prospects for resolving the presidency via
dialogue and compromise strikes us as more optimistic than
what we are hearing from other majority -- and also
opposition -- leaders, many of whom, if anything, have dug in
their heels, refusing to budge from their positions.
FELTMAN