MARONITE PATRIARCH FOR COMPROMISE PRESIDENT;

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 001249

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/GAVITO/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2027
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV LE SY
SUBJECT: MARONITE PATRIARCH FOR COMPROMISE PRESIDENT;
AGAINST CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT; WORRIED ABOUT PALESTINIANS


Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) In a 8/14 meeting with the Ambassador focused on
Lebanon's upcoming presidential elections, Maronite Patriarch
Sfeir said that he opposes amending Lebanon's constitution --
a position that, if heeded by the MPs, would rule out LAF
Commander Michel Sleiman's front-running presidential bid.
Sfeir displayed mild annoyance that Sleiman had manipulated
his visit to the Patriarch to project the appearance of
Church support for his subsequent statements regarding a
temporary, transitional government, an option Sfeir dislikes.
Insisting that parliament apply a two-thirds quorum
requirement to presidential elections, Sfeir (please protect)
said that he hoped a non-political, neutral candidate such as
banker Joseph Torbey, ex-ambassador Simon Karam, or
ex-minister Demianos Kattar (the latter of whom is not
neutral, according to our analysis) would be elected. Nassib
Lahoud is actually the best candidate, Sfeir revealed, but he
saw Lahoud as unlikely to bridge Lebanon's political divide
to get elected. Sfeir hinted that Michel Aoun is finished as
a candidate. Sfeir also spent considerable time expressing
worries about the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, fretting
in particular that any international meeting on the
Israeli-Palestinian issues will lead to de-facto "tawteen"
(naturalization) of the refugees in Lebanon. This outcome,
Sfeir emphasized, would "destroy" Lebanon, and he urged U.S.
attention to Lebanon's needs and concerns regarding the
Palestinians. End summary.

FRETTING ABOUT PALESTINIANS
AND MEANING OF U.S. CONFERENCE
--------------


2. (C) Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, receiving the Ambassador
in the Patriarch's summer residence in Diman on 8/14, focused
the discussion initially on the issue of the Palestinian
refugees in Lebanon. When asked by the Ambassador for his
advice on how the USG can facilitate Lebanon's presidential
elections, Sfeir went into an uncharacteristic lengthy
monologue about how Lebanon will be destroyed by "tawteen,"
the alleged USG and Israeli plot to naturalize Lebanon's
estimated 400,000 Palestinian refugee population. When
questioned, he confirmed that he understood that the
Ambassador asked about presidential elections, not the
Palestinians. But he noted that "tawteen" will be an issue
in presidential elections and a policy problem for the
successful candidate.


3. (C) Assured by the Ambassador that the USG understands
very well the sensitivity of the issue, the Patriarch
nevertheless persisted for 20 minutes (out of 45). He said
that "some people" have warned him of the danger of the
U.S.-sponsored international meeting on the
Israeli-Palestinian issues for later this autumn. This
conference, he claimed, can easily lead to the de-facto
naturalization of the Palestinians in Lebanon. The U.S.
might not be intending to destroy Lebanon's confessional
balance, the Patriarch conceded, but the U.S. needs to keep
Lebanon's concerns in mind. He objected to the idea of
rebuilding Nahr al-Barid refugee camp, without providing any
tangible option for what to do with more than 30,000
displaced refugees who are now homeless. The Palestinians
must be given incentives to leave Lebanon, he said.

OPPOSING CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
AFFECTING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (S) Moving at last to the presidential elections, Sfeir
said that he opposed any constitutional amendments, whether
regarding the constitutional six-year term of office or
qualifications for candidacy. The Ambassador noted that the
Patriarch's position thus would snuff out the immediate
presidential ambitions of LAF Commander Michel Sleiman,
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, and Higher Judicial chief
Antoine Kheir, all of whom seem to require a two-year,
constitutionally mandated cooling-off period. Sfeir repeated
his objections to any constitutional amendment. Asked if he
specifically ruled out Sleiman's candidacy given the presumed
front-runner status of Sleiman, Sfeir again repeated his
objection to touching the constitution. He also said that
Lebanon has "had enough" of military men.


BEIRUT 00001249 002 OF 004



5. (S) But, as if giving an afterthought, Sfeir asked "what
can I do" if "everyone" backs Sleiman. Asked what he thought
of Sleiman, the Patriarch used his usual formula of citing
unnamed third-party sources, noting that "they say" he's a
good man before repeating his opposition to a constitutional
amendment. The Ambassador encouraged him to make his
opposition to a constitutional amendment clear. Shrugging,
Sfeir said that "everyone knows my views, but they don't
always listen."

ANNOYED THAT SLEIMAN WRAPPED HIS WORDS
IN PRESUMED PATRIARCHAL BLESSING
--------------


6. (S) The Ambassador asked if Sleiman, who had visited the
Patriarch two days earlier, had shared his thinking about the
possibility of some kind of transitional, temporary
government that he would head (while retaining command of the
LAF),if no consensus could be reached on the presidency.
The Patriarch projected mild annoyance (which may have masked
a more profound unhappiness, given his usual poker-faced
demeanor),saying that Sleiman had talked only about the army
and Nahr al-Barid. But by making presidential-sounding
statements a day later, Sleiman made it appear as though "I
agreed with him," the Patriarch complained, emphasizing that
he did not support any solution except a normal, six-year
presidency. "But what can I do," he said, if people exploit
their connections to him. Sfeir said that he would publicly
rebuke Sleiman, but he would continue to make it clear that
he supports a president, not a temporary fix.

NASSIB LAHOUD BEST CANDIDATE,
BUT QUORUM REQUIREMENT ELIMINATES HIM
--------------


7. (S) The Ambassador asked Sfeir how he thought the
presidency issue ultimately could be resolved. Saying that
he was speaking "between you and me," Sfeir (please protect)
said that he thought former MP Nassib Lahoud was the most
qualified and most statesman-like presidential candidate.
But because of the two-thirds parliamentary quorum for
presidential elections, "the others" (meaning the March
8-Aoun alliance) will withhold quorum to veto him. Sfeir
would not entertain the idea of a simple majority quorum,
saying that such a divisive, confrontational approach by the
March 14 majority would be yet another one of those many
dangers that could "destroy Lebanon." So Nassib Lahoud "has
no possibilities." Justice Minister Charles Rizk is "good,"
but he will be blocked by Emile Lahoud's allies.

SEEKING A NON-PARTISAN PRESIDENT
--------------


8. (S) Thus, Sfeir said, he thought the only solution was a
non-partisan candidate, someone "neither March 14 nor March
8." He should be a professional, experienced, neutral, and
with credibility. Such a person could more easily heal the
political divisions. The Ambassador noted that, in previous
meetings, the Patriarch had distinguished between candidates,
who he said could originate from March 14, and the actual
president, who, once in office, needed to transcend the
political divides. Shaking his head, Sfeir said that he now
believed that, to be successful in overcoming the
parliamentary quorum issue, the candidates themselves could
not come from either party. Asked about Michel Aoun, Sfeir
laughed without comment (a reaction we took to mean that he,
like most others, considers Aoun, in the aftermath of losing
the Maronite vote while winning the Metn elections, no longer
a serious candidate).


9. (S) The Ambassador asked the Patriarch if he was
therefore thinking of someone from the banking or business
community. "Exactly," Sfeir responded. Prodded a bit, the
Patriarch, asking that his choices not be revealed to other
Lebanese (a request we will honor),gave three examples of
the "profiles" he thought could be successful as candidates
and president: Joseph Torbey, the newly elected head of the
Maronite League (a political wing of the Church, the exact
purpose of which no one -- not even the voluble former League
head Michel Edde -- seems capable of explaining) and head of
Credit-Libanais Bank; former Ambassador to Washington Simon
Karam; and former Finance Minister (in Najib Mikati's 2005
cabinet) Demianos Kattar. The Ambassador, noting Kattar's
business ties in Qatar with presidential son Emile Emile
Lahoud and Kattar's frequent visits to Lahoud in Baabda
Palace. Sfeir shrugged: "they say he's good."

BEIRUT 00001249 003 OF 004




10. (S) The Ambassador explained to Patriarch Sfeir that we
wanted to support the presidential electoral process, but
without getting involved in the selection of candidates. The
Lebanese must choose the candidates, and the Lebanese
parliament should elect the president. The Patriarch
expressed skepticism that the U.S. would remain distant from
the vetting of candidates ("they say you have favorites"),
but he agreed that it was the best approach. Asked how the
U.S. could build the environment for presidential elections,
the Patriarch had no specific suggestions. "We must have
elections," he said (although with less conviction than we
would have liked).

COMMENT
--------------


11. (S) Getting the Patriarch to go public with his
opposition to a constitutional amendment -- and thus
eliminate LAF Commander Sleiman from the presidency in the
process -- will be difficult. Always fearful about erosion
in his authority, Sfeir is probably smarting from the
experience of Christians battling it out in Metn elections
despite the Patriarch's attempts to get the competing
candidates to withdraw. With the LAF Commander the
beneficiary of an enormous pro-LAF propaganda machine
exploiting the Nahr al-Barid fight, Sleiman has eclipsed Aoun
as the most popular Maronite. We suspect that Sfeir's strong
opposition to a constitutional amendment is in part his way
to oppose Sleiman without going so obviously against the
public mood. We wonder, however, if the Patriarch will
maintain his opposition to a constitutional amendment. We
will know soon enough: in early September, the Maronite
bishops gather for their annual synod. All of Lebanon will
be watching the synod's statement (more important than the
monthly pronouncements) to check for clues to the Patriarch's
thinking regarding the presidency. That is the opportunity
for him to come out of the closet against a constitutional
amendment.


12. (S) In terms of the "neutral" candidates Sfeir
mentioned, should those three names actually be forwarded to
parliament, Torbey -- smart, decent and pleasant, but dull,
whose dinner parties so bore Lebanon's glitterati that they
conclude by 10:30 p.m., an astonishingly early hour for
Beirut -- would emerge as the winner by default. March 14
MPs will reject Kattar, whose fealty to Emile Lahoud now
disgusts even Najib Mikati, who once included Kattar in his
cabinet. Both March 14 and March 8 will reject Karam (who,
should we have a vote, would be our pick of the three):
Karam had the temerity to break with March 14 over the 2005
electoral deal with Hizballah, and he prefers third-way Shia
to Hizballah and Amal, despite being from southern Lebanon.
Torbey, whose bank is Saudi-owned, is a safe but uninspiring
fall-back. If a Torbey presidency comes to pass, we expect
our relations will be fine (although, frankly, we need to
start taking the No-Doze in order to quiz Torbey about his
heretofore unknown political views).


13. (S) But we wonder if the Patriarch is surrendering too
soon. If he thinks Nassib Lahoud is the best candidate for
Lebanon (as do we),shouldn't he be trying to see if that
option is possible, before retreating to Torbey? If his
opening position is someone as yawn-provoking as Torbey, then
he could find himself forced back to someone who poses as a
compromise but is actually pro-Syrian or pro-Hizballah.
(Michel Sleiman again comes to mind.) We hope that the
Vatican, the French, and others can help Sfeir at least start
by aiming higher. SAUDI Arabia, reportedly backing Nassib
Lahoud, would normally be an ally, except that the Patriarch
has been influenced by too many Sunni-bashing discussions
with pro-Syrian and pro-Aoun forces. It is likely, in fact,
that the pro-Syrians and Aounies have succeeded in planting
suspicions in the Patriarch's mind that Nassib is "too Sunni"
and "too Saudi."


14. (S) Certainly, it appears that the pro-Syrians -- no
doubt aided in this campaign by Michel Edde, who is close to
the Patriarch and who veers close to racism regarding the
Palestinians -- have succeeded in poisoning the Patriarch's
mind on the Palestinian issue. The "tawteen" or
naturalization charges draw upon a deep paranoia embedded in
the Lebanese psyche, and the pro-Syrians are using the fears
of Christian marginalization to demonize us and minimize our
partnership with the Lebanese. The Patriarch has into this
trap. Whatever we do to advance the Israeli-Palestinian

BEIRUT 00001249 004 OF 004


agenda, we should keep in mind the impact our statements and
actions could have on the forces we are trying to promote in
Lebanon.
FELTMAN