LEBANON: MP BOULOS SEES AOUN STRATEGY AT ST. CLOUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001176

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA,
NEA/FO FOR ATACHCO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP BOULOS SEES AOUN STRATEGY AT ST. CLOUD


Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Maronite MP Jawad Boulos outlined for the Ambassador
what he saw as three different positions shared at La
Celle-St. Cloud, talks in which he represented the Christian
majority. March 14 will consider a package, of national
unity government with a president. Rejecting the package
approach, Hizballah wants a national unity government before
any consideration of constitutional issues like the
presidency. Aoun's supporters had what Boulos described as
the most dangerous position, in advocating setting aside the
constitutional issues completely. Aoun, Boulos concluded,
privately yearns for a void in the presidency that he can
then use to appear as a savior when the Christians rebel at a
lack of representation. Boulos believes the presidential
elections in the end will only happen with a simple majority
in the end, rather than two-thirds of the Parliament. Early
results from the Special Tribunal could help. End Summary.

THREE DIFFERENT POSITIONS AT ST. CLOUD
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2. (C) Maronite MP Jawad Boulos, a member of the March 14
bloc and participant in the La Celle-St. Cloud meetings,
outlined to Ambassador and Econoff on August 1, 2007 what he
saw as the Michel Aoun strategy for laying claim to the
presidency. Boulos saw three distinct positions in the
meeting in France from March 14, Hizballah, and supporters of
General Aoun. March 14 will consider a package approach of a
national unity government with a president. This was close
to the French position. Hizballah, by contrast, wants a
national unity government, and will refuse discussing any
other issues before having such a cabinet in place. Aoun's
supporters advocated the most dangerous position of all, by
saying that, for now, one should put aside the constitutional
issues completely.

AOUN TO THE RESCUE
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3. (C) Boulos said that he had the impression at La
Celle-St. Cloud that Aoun would prefer a government with no
president, rather than the two-government scenario some fear
that Aoun may support. Boulos said Aoun prefers a government
without a president, but recognized by all political groups.
With no president, the position reserved for Christians under
Lebanon's constitution, and a Sunni Prime Minister and a Shia
Speaker, there would be no one to represent the Christians in
the government process. After a couple of months of the
vacuum in the Christian presidency, with the Sunni Prime
Minister and Shia Speaker being treated as heads of state,
Maronite Patriarch Sfeir would go mad. The picture of the
Christians having lost their role would "drive them crazy."
At that point, General Aoun would come in as the "savior,"
offering himself as the ideal candidate to save the
situation. Under this scenario, Aoun would not have to wait
for the next parliamentary elections to change the majority.
He would simply wait a couple of months, as the pressure
built up inside the Christian community, until parliament
would have no choice but to elect him.

WILL THE PRESIDENCY HAPPEN?
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4. (C) Along the same lines, Boulos is not convinced that
the Lebanese Parliament will be able to elect a president.
He believes that the people want stability, but first Speaker
Nabih Berri will have to accept the concept that a simple
majority of the Parliament, and not two-thirds, is acceptable
for electing a president, and others will have to "beat down"
Aoun. He believes that the Syrians do not want a new
president, because they would prefer to destroy the Special
Tribunal.

TRIBUNAL -- WILL IT HELP?
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5. (C) Boulos sees progress on the Tribunal as offering
hope. He pointed out that the presidential elections will
not be before November 24, which leaves "a lot of time" for
the Tribunal to develop and "change the equation."


6. (C) COMMENT: Although Boulos represented his party at

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the La Celle-St. Cloud discussions, he currently seems
somewhat marginalized in the March 14 bloc. Saying that
"they never tell me anything," he wanted to know why the GOL
is so reticent about the events at Nahr al-Barid, and the
plans to secure the borders, if any. He also said that the
GOL is not providing security to the MPs, who cannot do their
jobs without fear. Due to the security risks, he is
currently spending time with his family in Abu Dhabi unless
he needs to return to Lebanon for meetings resulting from the
La-Celle St. Cloud process. End comment.
FELTMAN