LEBANON: MP BOULOS SEES AOUN STRATEGY AT ST. CLOUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001176 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING, STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/FO FOR ATACHCO E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER LE SUBJECT: LEBANON: MP BOULOS SEES AOUN STRATEGY AT ST. CLOUD Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Maronite MP Jawad Boulos outlined for the Ambassador what he saw as three different positions shared at La Celle-St. Cloud, talks in which he represented the Christian majority. March 14 will consider a package, of national unity government with a president. Rejecting the package approach, Hizballah wants a national unity government before any consideration of constitutional issues like the presidency. Aoun's supporters had what Boulos described as the most dangerous position, in advocating setting aside the constitutional issues completely. Aoun, Boulos concluded, privately yearns for a void in the presidency that he can then use to appear as a savior when the Christians rebel at a lack of representation. Boulos believes the presidential elections in the end will only happen with a simple majority in the end, rather than two-thirds of the Parliament. Early results from the Special Tribunal could help. End Summary. THREE DIFFERENT POSITIONS AT ST. CLOUD -------------- ¶2. (C) Maronite MP Jawad Boulos, a member of the March 14 bloc and participant in the La Celle-St. Cloud meetings, outlined to Ambassador and Econoff on August 1, 2007 what he saw as the Michel Aoun strategy for laying claim to the presidency. Boulos saw three distinct positions in the meeting in France from March 14, Hizballah, and supporters of General Aoun. March 14 will consider a package approach of a national unity government with a president. This was close to the French position. Hizballah, by contrast, wants a national unity government, and will refuse discussing any other issues before having such a cabinet in place. Aoun's supporters advocated the most dangerous position of all, by saying that, for now, one should put aside the constitutional issues completely. AOUN TO THE RESCUE -------------- ¶3. (C) Boulos said that he had the impression at La Celle-St. Cloud that Aoun would prefer a government with no president, rather than the two-government scenario some fear that Aoun may support. Boulos said Aoun prefers a government without a president, but recognized by all political groups. With no president, the position reserved for Christians under Lebanon's constitution, and a Sunni Prime Minister and a Shia Speaker, there would be no one to represent the Christians in the government process. After a couple of months of the vacuum in the Christian presidency, with the Sunni Prime Minister and Shia Speaker being treated as heads of state, Maronite Patriarch Sfeir would go mad. The picture of the Christians having lost their role would "drive them crazy." At that point, General Aoun would come in as the "savior," offering himself as the ideal candidate to save the situation. Under this scenario, Aoun would not have to wait for the next parliamentary elections to change the majority. He would simply wait a couple of months, as the pressure built up inside the Christian community, until parliament would have no choice but to elect him. WILL THE PRESIDENCY HAPPEN? -------------- ¶4. (C) Along the same lines, Boulos is not convinced that the Lebanese Parliament will be able to elect a president. He believes that the people want stability, but first Speaker Nabih Berri will have to accept the concept that a simple majority of the Parliament, and not two-thirds, is acceptable for electing a president, and others will have to "beat down" Aoun. He believes that the Syrians do not want a new president, because they would prefer to destroy the Special Tribunal. TRIBUNAL -- WILL IT HELP? -------------- ¶5. (C) Boulos sees progress on the Tribunal as offering hope. He pointed out that the presidential elections will not be before November 24, which leaves "a lot of time" for the Tribunal to develop and "change the equation." ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Although Boulos represented his party at BEIRUT 00001176 002 OF 002 the La Celle-St. Cloud discussions, he currently seems somewhat marginalized in the March 14 bloc. Saying that "they never tell me anything," he wanted to know why the GOL is so reticent about the events at Nahr al-Barid, and the plans to secure the borders, if any. He also said that the GOL is not providing security to the MPs, who cannot do their jobs without fear. Due to the security risks, he is currently spending time with his family in Abu Dhabi unless he needs to return to Lebanon for meetings resulting from the La-Celle St. Cloud process. End comment. FELTMAN