LEBANON: BEIRUT ARCHBISHOP'S ASSESSMENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001132

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: BEIRUT ARCHBISHOP'S ASSESSMENT OF
UPCOMING BY-ELECTIONS

REF: BEIRUT 1074

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Ambassador and Special
Assistant on July 27, Archbishop Boulos Matar, the Maronite
archbishop of Beirut, shared his evaluation of the upcoming
parliamentary by-elections in the predominantly Christian
Metn district. Matar believes General Aoun's candidate will
not win and that Aoun's actions are dividing the Maronite
community. Matar believes that Aoun's alliance with
opposition March 8th groups has seriously damaged his
influence in this election and will be a hindrance in a
future campaign for president. Matar also believes that
Lebanon needs a strong president to lead the country and he
believes that communication with the Shia will be critical in
the months before the presidential election. End summary.

Muddle in Metn
--------------


2. (C) Holding court in his impressive receiving room,
Archbishop Matar began by relaying the causes of personal
hard feelings between Amine Gemayel, a candidate for the
vacant Metn MP seat, and Michel Aoun, whose bloc has named a
candidate to challenge Gemayel. He said that Gemayel refused
to receive Aoun during the public condolence period for his
son, assassinated MP Pierre Gemayel, despite the fact that he
opened his door to members of Aoun's allies in the opposition
March 8th coalition, including Hizballah. Matar relayed that
Gemayel believes Aoun cannot learn to compromise or
cooperate. He is much better at "erasing" people or cutting
them out of future dialogues. On the other hand, as Matar
stated, Aoun has done himself no favors by forming alliances
with March 8th elements and putting his personal agenda
before what is best for the country. "That is not how a
president should act," stated Matar.


3. (C) Matar and two other archbishops planned to see Aoun
July 27 to seek a compromise on the competing Christian
candidacies before the election. Matar does not think it is
too late to find a compromise, and he said that he will keep
reiterating the need for unity. If Aoun wants to be the
political figure who represents the Maronite community, he
cannot behave so divisively. "Aoun should know better than
to try this again," said Matar, referring to Aoun's civil
war-era past. Matar said that perhaps it would be best for
both Gemayel and Aoun's candidate Khoury to withdraw from the
by-elections, postponing the entire process until a later
date. But if there is a fight, Matar and his fellow Maronite
archbishops are encouraging their people to vote for Gemayel.

Presidential Proposals and Prospects
--------------


4. (C) Archbishop Matar is in favor of electing a strong
leader to be president of Lebanon. He believes that if the
elections do not happen on time, the Maronites will lose
their traditional role in the government. "If we don't get a
president this time, we may never get one," he worried.
Matar stressed that the Patriarch is encouraging Christian
MPs to vote, for the Maronite members of parliament to
participate in the government, and for the community to stay
active and engaged.


5. (C) Matar feels the time has come to break the destructive
political cycle in Lebanon. The Maronites will need the
cooperation of both Speaker of Parliament/Shia leader Nabih
Berri and General Aoun in the next presidential election to
accomplish this, but he cautions about compromising too much.
"We cannot eliminate elections in the name of consensual
democracy. There have to be some limits, too." He had some
critical words for the Sunni government leaders, saying that
they need to be sensitive about certain things. He cited the
GOL's proposal to provide Islamic teachings to all Muslim
students in Lebanon, regardless of what school or school
district was involved. "The Sunnis must not take advantage
and they must learn to compromise," admonished Matar.


6. (C) Matar spoke about reaching out to the Shia community,
but his message to them was "You have everything you could
want here in Lebanon. Now it is time to help defend your
country." He compares the rights and privileges of the Shia

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in Lebanon with other countries in the region and believes
that Lebanon - and the Maronites - have provided the Shia
with an excellent home. He is not very patient with
historical grievances and feels that the Shia are driven by
"revenge" more than they should be. He does not consider
Hezballah Secretary General Nasrallah as a true
representative of the majority of the Shia. "Nasrallah is
horrible, sick and cannot be trusted."

Moving Forward
--------------


7. (C) In Matar's opinion, communication will be key in the
next few months leading up to presidential elections. He and
the other bishops in Lebanon plan to speak to Aoun at least
once a week to encourage him to play a constructive role in
the country's politics. Matar said, "A defeat in Metn
(considered the Christian heartland) would be a wake-up call
for most leaders, but Aoun really thinks he is the savior of
Lebanon. He reads biographies of De Gaulle and Eisenhower
and believes that he will play a similar role in his
country's history."


8. (C) Matar said that he personally met with Prime Minister
Siniora to "rebuild the bridge that was knocked down" three
weeks ago by the Maronite Church's criticism of the
government (reftel). He also met with Siniora's ministers to
assure them that the Church is not against the government.
He merely wanted to remind them to consult with the church on
religious matters that come before the government.


9. (C) When asked if he still hoped for intervention from the
Vatican, Matar said that everything is helpful at this point.
However, he thinks it would be more useful to appeal to
hearts of Lebanon's Shia population. He still fears that
there could be another war in the future. He is worried
about this and went so far as to say, "Lebanon cannot afford
another war. With a 50 billion dollar debt, we can't even
pay for it. Outside money would have to flow in to pay for
more fighting and nobody wants that."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) As head of the largest Christian archdiocese in the
Middle East with 230,000 parishioners and 150 priests,
Archbishop Matar is in a position of wide-reaching influence.
His diocese also contains 25 of the 90 villages in the Metn
area and he is clearly engaged in political issues. His
desire for a united Lebanon appears genuine, but he is also
proud of the Maronite's traditional roles in the country. He
agreed to continue communicating with various factions over
the next few months and with the Ambassador, as well. We
also suspect that Matar has another election on his mind:
the election, which is inevitable at some point, to succeed
87-year-old Maronite Patriarch Sfeir. (In the election for
Patriach, the Maronite bishops vote, but the Vatican must
confirm the choice.) Matar is widely assumed to be one of
the front-runners.
FELTMAN