LEBANON: CHRISTIAN LEADERS VIEWS LAF COMMANDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 001122

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PARM SY IS LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: CHRISTIAN LEADERS VIEWS LAF COMMANDER
SLEIMAN AS BEST OPTION FOR PRESIDENT

REF: BEIRUT

Classified By: Ambassador Jeffrey D. Feltman for Reasons: Section 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) National Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun sees a
two-year presidency under Lebanese Armed Forces Commander
General Michel Sleiman as the only realistic option for
resolving Lebanon's political crisis, and believes
establishing the Special Tribunal before voting day will have
a significant impact on the direction of the election.
Regarding the August 5 parliamentary by-elections, Chamoun
believes MP Michel Murr holds key. End summary.

PRESIDENCY: ONLY OPTIONS ARE AOUN, VACUUM...OR SLEIMAN
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Ambassador, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief and Pol
Specialist, hosted a lunch for Chamoun on July 26. Stressing
that he "hates soldiers" and normally would oppose a military
man in Baabda Palace, Chamoun nevertheless said that Lebanese
Armed Forces Commander General Michel Sleiman was only option
to avoid either an Aoun (whom he described as "clinical")
presidency or a total vacuum. Sleiman is the only one who
can keep the army unified, thereby denying Hizballah the
opportunity to try to divide it. LAF unity is extremely
important for a "country in rebirth," Chamoun said.


3. (C) Responding to the Ambassador's concerns that some
reports indicate that Sleiman still maintains close ties with
the Syrians, Chamoun said, "look at what he's done, not what
he's saying." Sleiman is the "guy who kept the army
together" at Nahr al-Barid, he added. He is the one who
defied Syrian orders to use the LAF to break up
pro-independence demonstrations in spring 2005, including the
original March 14 rally. He agreed that Sleiman should be
limited up front to a two-year term to leave the window open
for a new candidate should he not be up to the job. But
Sleiman is the only candidate who the opposition can accept
who would be able to directly challenge Aoun's claim to the
presidency.

TRIBUNAL IS KEY TO AVOIDING PRO-SYRIAN PRESIDENT
-------------- ---


4. (C) Chamoun, asking about the status of the UN Special
Tribunal for Lebanon, stressed that it needs to be
established before the September 25 presidential election.
Otherwise, he warned, the pro-Syrian opposition will view it
as a lame threat and continue their efforts to take control
of the presidency. The Ambassador countered that the
Tribunal already is a reality; the GOL, by submitting
candidates for Tribunal judges and the Deputy Prosecutor, has
fulfilled nearly all of its responsibilities, and should make
this clear to the Lebanese people. Chamoun continued to
press, saying that if the Tribunal processed even one round
of indictments before the election, it would pose a stern
warning to the opposition.

MICHEL MURR: THE "HERO" OF METN
--------------


5. (C) While making his own distaste for the man clear,
Chamoun said Michel Murr holds the key to the August 5
by-elections in Beirut's Metn districts, widely viewed as a
referendum on Aoun's presidential prospects (septel). To
convince Murr to direct his constituency (which consists of a
mish-mash of Armenian, Greek Orthodox, and other communities
that hold the swing vote in what is expected to be a close
election between Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement candidate
Camille Khoury and former President Amine Gemayel, father of
slain MP Pierre Gemayel) to vote in favor of Gemayel, Chamoun
advocated appealing to Murr's ego and ambitions. As former
Deputy Speaker, Murr already has achieved the highest
position possible for a Greek Orthodox under Lebanon's
complicated confessional system. Therefore, Chamoun said,
pitch to Murr a vision of his political future as national
reconciliator, the one person who can mend the fences between
Lebanon's embittered factions.


BEIRUT 00001122 002 OF 002



6. (C) If Murr tries to divide his votes between the two
camps, it won't function on the ground; Murr needs to take a
strong stance one way or another to have the Armenians follow
him. If instead Murr stays out of the race, Chamoun said,
Gemayel will win because the Armenians will vote for Gemayel,
and March 14 can capitalize on the sympathy vote for the
father of a slain young MP.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Dory Chamoun is no slouch when it comes to March 14
credentials: somewhat idiosyncratic in approach and head of
a National Liberal Party that is only a shadow of its
1950s-1970s size, Chamoun has nevertheless been a
consistently forceful and courageous critic of Syria and
Hizballah. Rather than worry about his (largely
non-existent) Christian base, he is one of the few Maronite
politicians who has the temerity to attack Michel Aoun
directly on national television for Aoun's alliance with
Hizballah and his dalliances with pro-Syrian politicians. So
we were surprised that he volunteered that the Michel Sleiman
two-year presidency is an option he would favor. While
Chamoun made it clear that he sees Sleiman as the least bad
option available, he did not dismiss him -- as many of our
contacts are wont to do -- as simply an Emile Lahoud clone.
In our view, there remains a distinct Syrian odor, fainter on
some days than others (with its strength no doubt linked to
the political winds) that clings to Sleiman. But Chamoun
seems to think that it is better to hold our nose than risk
losing the presidency to a vacuum or to someone more solidly
in Syria's clutches.
FELTMAN