DISMAYED BY THE MARONITE PATRIACH, MARCH 14

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIRUT 001087 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/MARCHESE/HARDING E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2027 TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV LE SY VT SUBJECT: DISMAYED BY THE MARONITE PATRIACH, MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS YEARN FOR RENEWED VATICAN INTEREST REF: BEIRUT 1074 BEIRUT 00001087 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY AND COMMENT -------------- ¶1. (C) Christians supporting the GOL are dismayed by what they see as a drift, if not shift, in the attitude of 87-year-old Maronite Patriarch Sfeir, away from March 14 values toward "neutral" positions that in practice benefit pro-Syrian forces. When the Patriarch came out recently in favor of a two-thirds parliamentary quorum for presidential elections, he sided with the March 8 interpretation of an ambiguous constitutional article. March 14-allied Christians now seek the Patriarch's help in ensuring that MPs feel obliged to vote. Christian contacts also believe that the Vatican is key to Lebanon's ability to have a successful presidential election. If the Vatican makes it clear through a Papal letter or envoy that it is the Christian and civil duty of all Christian MPs to show up for the parliamentary session, so the thinking goes, then presidential elections are more likely. If not, March 8-Aoun Christians might join their Shia colleagues in withholding quorum to prevent elections, perhaps indefinitely. ¶2. (C) But those Lebanese Christians in contact with the Vatican tell us that, while Foreign Minister Dominique Mamberti is willing to increase the Vatican profile in Lebanon, Pope Benedict -- supposedly fearing that his words will not be heeded -- is not. Monsignor Gatti, the Papal Nuncio in Lebanon, is sympathetic to March 14 goals (and scornful of Michel Aoun) but largely invisible. In hopes of trying one more time to convince the Vatican to send a letter and envoy, Acting Foreign Minister Tariq Mitri told us that he will request Vatican meetings soon. Looking at the situation from a Lebanon perspective, we believe a Papal message exhorting MPs to vote, lest the Christians participate in self-marginalization in the only Middle East country with a Christian president and 50-percent share of public positions, could be extremely useful (as could a message discouraging constitutional amendments). But any Papal message and envoy will need to be carefully orchestrated to avoid annoying an aging, already suspicious Maronite Patriarch, who by most accounts has a distant, awkward relationship with the Holy See. While we wish that the Vatican could influence the Patriarch's own thinking, that is probably an unrealistic goal. End summary and comment. MARONITE PATRIARCH SFEIR COMES OUT IN FAVOR OF SUPER QUORUM FOR PRESIDENTIAL RACE -------------- ¶3. (C) Both publicly and privately, Maronite Patriarch Sfeir has recently stated that the Lebanese Parliament, to elect a president, needs a two-thirds "super quorum," vice the simple majority needed for regular sessions. With the constitution far from clear on the point, Sfeir was undoubtedly looking at the two-thirds requirement as ensuring Christian weight in any future elections (as the simple majority quorum would allow the 50 percent of the Parliament that is Muslim to select the president, who is always a Maronite Christian, on their own, if only one Christian joined them). But, in practice for the upcoming elections, Sfeir has sided with the March 8-Aoun forces, by handing them a veto over presidential elections. By withholding quorum, the March 8-Aoun forces can postpone presidential elections indefinitely, with some saying that they will do so until after the next legislative elections (scheduled for 2009) in hopes of winning a new majority that will elect Lebanon's next president from among the pro-Syrian ranks. ¶4. (C) While constitutional lawyers continue to argue about what the ambiguous constitution means, the Patriarch's voice carries sufficient weight that it seems as though the political debate is essentially over. Whatever they may believe privately, some March 14 MPs are scrambling to show public solidarity with the Patriarch by stating their own support for the two-thirds quorum. The precedent of previous controversial presidential elections also favors the two-thirds' argument accepted by the Patriarch. While the March 14 majority still clings despite defections and BEIRUT 00001087 002.2 OF 004 assassinations to a simple majority in the parliament, it cannot muster the two-thirds super quorum now, thanks in no small measure to the Patriarch's words, considered politically imperative. MARCH 14 CHRISTIANS HOPE PATRIARCH WILL NOW PRESSURE MPS TO ATTENDING SESSION -------------- ¶5. (C) With the two-thirds' quorum benefiting the March 8-Aoun forces, March 14 Christians are hoping that the Patriarch will now try to compensate by tacking back in favor of March 14, by enlisting all of his moral and spiritual power to persuade Christian MPs to show up for the parliamentary session. Assuming March 14 wins the two upcoming by-elections, March 14 will have 70 seats, with 16 additional MPs needed for the 86-person two-thirds' quorum. Maybe, they say, Michel Aoun (with a 21-member parliamentary bloc) will continue to boycott unless he is assured of victory, but surely some of his MPs would hate to (in the words of former Foreign Minister Fouad Boutros) "commit political suicide" with Aoun, by participating in blocking elections of a Christian president. Strong public and private admonishments from the Patriarch might give Michel Aoun's deputies the excuse to break ranks and show up for the parliamentary session, Minister of Justice Charles Rizk commented to the Ambassador on 7/22. ¶6. (C) Former MP (and March 14 presidential candidate) Nassib Lahoud told us that, when he had lunch recently with Patriarch Sfeir, it was clear that the Patriarch understood the dangers of "Christian self-marginalization." Lahoud defined such self-marginalization as Christian (i.e., Aoun) complicity in creating the vacuum where the Christian presidency should be. But Lahoud said that Sfeir was silent when he lobbied the aging Patriarch to start conveying a message now that it was the civil and religious duty of all Christian MPs to show up to vote in presidential elections. Sheikh Michel Khoury (a March 14 stalwart and son of Lebanon's first president),who lunched with the Patriarch a couple of days after Lahoud's visit to Diman, was more upbeat, thinking that the Patriarch was starting to recognize his responsibility in getting out the vote. "There's still time," Khoury said; "all of us need to work on him." LOOKING WISTFULLY TO THE VATICAN TO PRESSURE MPS TO ATTEND SESSION -------------- ¶7. (C) But with the Patriarch having shifted in recent months to supposedly more "neutral" positions away from the March 14 positions he previously supported, many of our Christian contacts are looking to the Vatican for political salvation. Khoury, who visited the Vatican in June (meeting Archbishop Dominique Mamberti, described by Khoury as a long-standing friend, three times in the course of a week), pitched the idea of a Papal letter to the Lebanese, on the occasion of the ten-year anniversary of Pope John Paul II's trip to Lebanon. Khoury lobbied for the letter to be essentially an admonishment to all MPs to show up to vote to preserve the only Christian presidency in the Middle East. In Khoury's concept, a Papal envoy would deliver the letter, giving the envoy the opportunity to work on the Maronite priests and bishops as well, in order to increase the pressure on MPs to show up for the parliamentary session. Khoury, who also saw Secretary of State Bertone briefly, was initially upbeat about the prospects for his proposal. REPORTEDLY, THE POPE HIMSELF PREFERS STAYING ON THE MARGINS -------------- ¶8. (C) Meeting with the Ambassador on 7/16, Khoury said that he had learned from Papal Nuncio Gatti, "who supports my idea," that Pope Benedict himself had vetoed the idea. Khoury quoted Gatti as explaining that the Pope fears that his words would be disregarded, thus debasing the currency of the Papacy in the process. Mitri also alluded to this, saying that Vatican officials reported to him that the Pope was distressed that a Christmas message to the Christians of the Eastern churches had been ignored. Over lunch with the Ambassador on 7/17, Nassib Lahoud said that, in coordination with Khoury, he had gone unannounced to the Vatican the BEIRUT 00001087 003.2 OF 004 previous week and also tried with Mamberti. Mamberti claimed to be supportive but powerless to get the Pope to budge on the idea of a letter and envoy exhorting the MPs to vote. VATICAN UNHAPPY WITH SFEIR? -------------- ¶9. (C) Lahoud also claimed to be shocked by the antipathy expressed by Vatican officials regarding Patriarch Sfeir. In Lahoud's view, Mamberti strongly hinted that the Vatican, if asked by Lebanese leaders, would go so far as to ask Patriarch Sfeir to step aside. Seeing the Ambassador on the margins of yet another lunch on 7/20, Khoury said that, he, too, sensed a deep dislike in the Vatican for Sfeir. Khoury thought the Vatican dismay stemmed from Sfeir's abandonment of a leadership role, some financial mismanagement within the Maronite church, and Nuncio Gatti's strong dislike of the Patriarch, surely reflected in Gatti's diplomatic reporting. Khoury thought that "if we say the word," the Vatican would ask Sfeir, now 87 years old, to step aside, "but (hinting at pro-Syrian bishops within the Maronite hierarchy) maybe his replacement would be worse." Like Lahoud, Khoury counseled against trying to replace Sfeir, fearing that the plan could backfire by making the Maronites look under the control of outsiders, an outcome that could strengthen Michel Aoun's political base. ¶10. (C) Acting Foreign Minister Tariq Mitri, meeting with the Ambassador and Pol/Econ chief on 7/17, also claimed to know from Vatican contacts and Nuncio Gatti that Pope Benedict is uninterested in politics compared to his predecessor. Mitri reported that Nuncio Gatti is not even on speaking terms with the Patriarch, and the Vatican's overall relationship with the Maronite Church has deteriorated. When Patriarch Sfeir was in Rome in early June, he only got a three-minute audience with the Pope, Mitri said, and even that came only after heavy intervention from Mamberti and others. Mitri said that he, too, would take up Michel Khoury's idea of a letter and envoy with Vatican officials in the coming days. He also wanted to brief the Vatican on the developments of the last few weeks, in hopes that the Vatican can help reverse the downward spiral of relations between Patriarch Sfeir and PM Siniora (reftel). VATICAN WORRIED ABOUT TRIBUNAL? -------------- ¶11. (C) Continuing the conversation with the Ambassador on the margins of another meeting last week, Mitri said that he also wanted to use his trip to the Vatican to brief Mamberti and others on Syria's destructive role in Lebanon. According to what he heard from Gatti, Mitri said that it seems as though the Vatican has concluded that the price Lebanon must pay for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is too high. Mitri said that he would try to make it clear to the Vatican that the Tribunal holds the promise of stabilizing rather than undermining Lebanon's independence. POSSIBLE VATICAN DISCOURAGEMENT OF CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS -------------- ¶12. (C) Our contacts, in discussing a potential Vatican letter, also mused about whether the Vatican would be willing to appeal to the Lebanese Christians and Maronite hierarchy to refrain from amending Lebanon's much-abused constitution yet another time. Nassib Lahoud claimed that Iran and Hizballah are hoping to rejigger the Taif Accord's 50-50 Muslim-Christian division, changing it into thirds divided between the Christians, Sunnis (joined with the Druse),and Shia. This diminishment of Christian political power ("turning the Maronites into Copts," in Khoury's words) should frighten the Vatican and the Maronite Church, Lahoud argued, He hoped that Vatican officials would be suspicious of any further tampering with the constitution that could make it easier to amend the basic confessional foundations of the state. ¶13. (C) Thus, Lahoud (echoed by Mitri, Rizk, and Boutros Harb) argued that MP Michel Murr's proposal to amend the constitution to allow a two-year transitional president should be sharply opposed, as it would also weaken the power of the Christian presidency. All of our March 14 Christian BEIRUT 00001087 004.2 OF 004 contacts who aspire to the presidency themselves have an interest in opposing a constitutional amendment that would permit LAF Commander Michel Sleiman, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, or Higher Judicial Council chief Antoine Kheir -- all currently required to have a "cooling off" period before being eligible for the presidency -- to ascend now to Baabda Palace. COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) March 14 Christians look both to Patriarch Sfeir and to the Vatican for help in achieving the two-thirds quorum now determined to be required -- politically, at least -- for parliament to elect the president. As even our contacts recognize, it is not clear that either spiritual authority can deliver, or will even try to do so. Hamlet-like, the Patriarch frets, while Nuncio Gatti (perhaps reflecting a preferred Papal passivity) stays out of view. March 14 leaders dream wistfully of the type of messages from the Patriarch and the Vatican that hint that it would be un-Christian to participate in withholding quorum. ¶15. (C) But short of physical evidence that the wrath of God will be unleashed on the heads of boycotting Christian MPs, we're not sure Michel Aoun himself would heed even a Papal message or one from Patriarch Sfeir. But Aoun's MPs might listen. The question is whether the 87-year-old Patriarch would risk making such a pronouncement without Vatican prodding, given that his words might very well be ignored. Moreover, we note that the Patriarch does not typically make such categorical judgments, meaning that Aoun will seize upon the inevitable ambiguity in any Sfeir statement to claim he is not defying the Patriarch's wishes. (We defer to Embassy Vatican as to the Holy See's views as to the likelihood of any Papal message to Sfeir or to the Lebanese more generally.) ¶16. (C) And yet from our admittedly parochial Lebanon perspective, we believe it is worth pursuing a Vatican message exhorting MPs to vote, to protect Lebanon's independence, promote its stability, and preserve the only Christian presidency in the Middle East. The only other way we can see of ensuring the two-thirds quorum is to achieve some kind of mutually acceptable (for March 8 and March 14 leaders) deal on the presidency in advance. Many Lebanese are thinking along these lines, but the discussion until now has been largely hypothetical, since people are not yet ready to deal seriously with names. FELTMAN