U.S.-CHINA POLICY PLANNING TALKS: REGIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 007363 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2032 TAGS: PREL ETRD EAID APEC SENV KN JP RU TW CH SUBJECT: U.S.-CHINA POLICY PLANNING TALKS: REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE, NEAPSM, APEC, RUSSIA REF: A. BEIJING 7253 ¶B. BEIJING 7262 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) During the U.S.-China Policy Planning dialogue in Beijing in November, both sides agreed that the Six-Party Talks and APEC represent important parts of the existing East Asian regional architecture, and China and the United States have common interests in those institutions. The post-Six-Party Talks mechanism is of great interest to both parties. China is adamant that the post-Six-Party Talks mechanism not address or include Taiwan and should operate on the basis of equality, trust and consensus. Both countries agree that creating such a mechanism is a long-term process, and China emphasized that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and peace between the DPRK and the United States and between the DPRK and Japan are higher priorities. China sees Russia as a strong country unsatisfied with its current role in the world. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Policy Planning Director David Gordon and James Green of the Policy Planning Staff visited Beijing November 12-15 for Policy Planning talks with Chinese MFA Director General for Policy Planning Ma Zhaoxu. On the Chinese side, Counselor Tang Guocai, Division Director Zhou Jian and First Secretary Yin Chengwu (of the North American and Oceanian SIPDIS Affairs Department's Fourth Division) also participated. Aspects of the dialogue touching on Chinese foreign policy and "hotspots" such as Iran and the DPRK are reported in Ref ¶B. Director Gordon's discussion with Beijing University scholars on Taiwan, democracy, Asia policy and alliances is reported in Ref A. The portions of the dialogue relating to Africa and energy security will be reported septel. Asian Institution-Building -------------- ¶3. (C) Director Gordon noted that the economic drivers of change in Asia are extremely important, primarily the twin engines of growth and economic integration, but security drivers also play a role. The Six-Party Talks are an obvious current example, but historically, the ASEAN initiative was crucial to Asia's institutional development. The United States does not see any single "right way forward" and is open as to how Asia's institutions evolve. Europe might offer one model, but there is no reason to expect Asia to evolve the same way Europe has. Asia's primary obstacle to integrated development is that there is no single overarching institutional framework. Instead, there are several international organizations, including new ones. The United States will join some of these groupings, but not others. Existing Asian institutions are not a viable alternative to the United States' traditional alliances with our historic partners. However, they will serve as an important complement to those alliances and evolve into a broader framework for peace and security in the region. The United States sees that progress in this area will necessarily be incremental, and there is no likelihood of a "big step forward." ¶4. (C) DG Ma said that East Asian regional cooperation is developing quickly, with institutions progressively stronger and new institutions being created. Asian institutional development grows mainly from the economic dynamism of the Asia Pacific region, he said, and reflects the region's political and economic diversity. The key element of Asian institutions is legitimacy, meaning there is agreement that their purpose and existence advance peace, development, security and cooperation in the region. The United States and China both play an important role in the development of East Asian institutions. China's fundamental foreign policy interest is to safeguard a peaceful regional environment in which China can continue its economic development, and with than in mind, China's policy is to cooperate and coordinate with the United States on all challenges in the region. This means that China welcomes a constructive, positive U.S. role in Asian institutions. APEC and Northeast Asia -------------- BEIJING 00007363 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Director Gordon noted that APEC has served well and can continue to serve well, especially as a basis on which to build a broader set of institutional networks. The Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) proposed by President Bush is an example of a way to move forward from the successes APEC has already achieved. In the security area, in Northeast Asia, the Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism growing out of the Six-Party Talks is an important option to explore to build on the trust created through the Six-Party Talks. ¶6. (C) DG Ma noted that China's initial participation in the Six-Party Talks represented a "slight adjustment" in Chinese foreign policy and way of doing things. At the beginning of the multilateral process, China stated its position on the Korean nuclear issue but refrained from participating; later, China participated first in the Four-Party Talks and then the Six-Party Talks in cooperation with the United States. ¶7. (C) APEC is very important in the region, DG Ma said. The organization has been mostly focused on trade and investment, but in the 2007 meeting in Sydney, there was a greater emphasis on climate change. China believes APEC must stick to its three basic principles: consensus, independence and gradualism. This guarantees the achievements of the institution will continue. Going forward, China believes APEC should focus on strengthening the economic development of member states by promoting multilateral economic development institutions and pushing forward the Doha WTO round. In addition, APEC needs to focus on trade and investment facilitation, as well as strengthening economic and technical cooperation to help developing members deal with the challenges of economic competition. ¶8. (C) China acknowledges the importance of APEC structural reform to the United States, and wants to work with all members to "push forward continued healthy development" in the region, Ma said. The Australia ministerial on APEC structural reform will give impetus to this effort. China sees the FTAAP as a long-term process deserving of APEC's further study. DG Ma said China and other APEC member states are uncertain about the U.S. commitment to this idea and wonder if there is any urgency to the concept. S/P Staff Green noted that President Bush raised the idea of the FTAAP to bring APEC's focus back to trade and to set an "aspirational goal" for APEC. ¶9. (C) DG Ma remarked that both the United States and China are "very interested" in a Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism as a possible follow-on to the Six-Party Talks. China is also interested in whatever mechanism is established to address Korea-specific issues, such as ROK-DPRK talks, and would like to explore options on how to cooperate with the United States on these two mechanisms. Green said the United States is waiting to see a draft charter or statement of principles as an outcome of the Moscow Six-Party Talks working group on NEAPSM, and would like such a charter or SOP to be a component of a Six-Party Talks ministerial. The actual organization is a long-term project. Concerning the Peninsula mechanism, the United States believes that any Korean peace regime should have four parties, he said. ¶10. (C) China has some ideas about a possible NEAPSM, DG Ma said. First and foremost, China's core interest is that Taiwan never be addressed in the NEAPSM and Taiwan not be included in the mechanism. Beyond that, DG Ma listed "principles" China believes should apply to the NEAPSM: - The UN Charter should be mentioned in the NEAPSM's founding documents. - The NEAPSM should advocate a "new security concept" including mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation. - The NEAPSM parties should "abandon the Cold War mentality" and pursue new ways of dealing with issues. - Parties should participate equally and shoulder their own responsibilities. - The NEAPSM should be "win-win." - The NEAPSM should operate on a consensus basis. - The organization and operation of NEAPSM should give due respect to the different political systems, levels of economic development, cultural background and values of each member. ¶11. (C) DG Ma described China's vision of the NEAPSM's purpose: - Enhance mutual (political) trust and security cooperation BEIJING 00007363 003 OF 003 in Northeast Asia. - Strengthen multilateral, mutually beneficial cooperation and realize lasting peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. - Enhance strategic mutual trust through a process of consultation and coordination. He emphasized that establishment of the NEAPSM requires a "step-by-step" approach and that "we cannot expect the NEAPSM to be established tomorrow." The top priority must remain the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula; without this, there is no point in even discussing the NEAPSM. We must focus our energies on the Six-Party Talks. Following denuclearization, the next priority should be the normalization of relations between the United States and the DPRK, and between the DPRK and Japan. Russia -------------- ¶12. (C) DG Ma declared that Russia will remain an important factor in East Asia, and strong generally, for some time to come. "Russia's natural resources, human resources and industrial base are all very strong," he said. Russia's "natural conditions" are good. However, the United States should recognize that Russia has an "historical tradition" of "strongman government" and that recently, Russia has felt pressure from outside that appears to be similar to "containment." This external pressure, and internal uncertainty about President Putin's future role, both contribute to Russia's increasing assertiveness on international questions. "Russia is not satisfied with its current position in the world," he said. ¶13. (C) China and Russia have a "strategic, cooperative relationship," DG Ma said, "but not an alliance." The Sino-Russian relationship is not "aimed at" any other country, but is instead designed to allow China and Russia to cooperate internationally on issues where they share core interests. ¶14. (U) S/P did not have a chance to clear this message. RANDT