PRC PREMIER WEN JIABAO AT ASEAN SUMMIT MEETINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 007299 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV CH ASEAN SUBJECT: PRC PREMIER WEN JIABAO AT ASEAN SUMMIT MEETINGS AND CHINESE VIEWS ON EAST ASIAN INSTITUTIONS AND INTEGRATION REF: BEIJING 7126 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1. 4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Premier Wen Jiabao's participation in the recent ASEAN Summit meetings in Singapore provided an opportunity for China to promote its vision of East Asia regional integration, according to MFA Asia Department ASEAN Division Deputy Director He Wei. Deputy Director He and Chinese scholars said China views the 10-plus-1 mechanism (ASEAN plus China) as "the basis" for its engagement with the region and the 10-plus-3 mechanism (ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea) as the "main channel" for regional integration. The East Asia Summit (10 plus 3 plus Australia, New Zealand and India) serves as a strategic forum rather than an organization. Chinese scholars, however, pointed out that APEC and a U.S. role in the region are still important. In any case, Chinese scholars believe that competing interests will forestall any drastic changes in regional architecture. End Summary. China a Strong Partner -------------- ¶2. (C) MFA Asia Department ASEAN Division Deputy Director He Wei briefed PolOff November 29 on Premier Wen Jiabao's participation in the November 18-21 ASEAN Summit meetings. Deputy Director (DDir) He pointed out that Wen's visit to Singapore, the second major foreign visit after October's 17th Party Congress, confirmed China's position as a "strong partner" and "neighborly friend" to its ASEAN neighbors. DDir He said the overlapping multilateral institutions in the region show that China and other countries in the region share a strong desire to cooperate toward a peaceful region and development. He said China needs a peaceful and stable East Asia region for its own development, which in turn promotes development in the rest of East Asia. 10 plus 1 the Basis of China's Integration in Region -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Deputy Director He said Premier Wen reiterated China's commitment to ASEAN institutions as the vehicles for East Asian integration and cooperation based on mutual respect and equal treatment. China views the 10-plus-1 (ASEAN plus China) mechanism as "the basis" for China's integration in East Asia. DDir He said China and ASEAN have already initiated a number of programmatic initiatives in the 10-plus-1 forum that promote regional integration, and in Singapore Wen proposed 17 initiatives to enhance regional cooperation, including a proposal to accelerate negotiations for a China-ASEAN investment agreement in the context of the China-ASEAN FTA framework. Premier Wen also suggested information technology and infrastructure projects, He said, observing that East Asia lags behind other regions in these areas. Wen also signed an MOU on strengthening health and plant health cooperation with ASEAN. MFA-affiliated China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) SE Asia scholar Shen Shishun told us that all the regional mechanisms have useful functions, but agreed that for China, the 10 plus 1 is the most "substantive" mechanism because it most practically and directly addresses China's economic relations with the ASEAN member states. 10 plus 3 a "Major Channel" of Regional Integration -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Deputy Director He said China supports the 10 plus 3 (ASEAN plus China, Japan and ROK) as the "major channel" for overall regional integration. PM Wen suggested the 10 plus 3 speed implementation of financial measures in the 2000 Chiang Mai Initiative. PM Wen also encouraged members to support the 10 plus 3 Finance Cooperation Fund, established in August ¶2003. In addition to financial measures, China suggested establishing a "non-traditional security platform" within the 10 plus 3. Deputy Director He admitted that such a platform overlaps with the ASEAN Regional Forum, but said discussions on non-traditional security threats in both fora will be mutually reinforcing. CIIS scholar Shen said the 10 plus 3 is the best mechanism to increase ASEAN nations' economic ties to Northeast Asia. China, Japan and South Korea have let ASEAN take the lead in the 10 plus 3 to dampen ASEAN fears that the economically strong Northeast Asian members could dominate the forum. Shen said despite the appearance that the 10 plus 3 is "a small horse dragging a big cart," China is comfortable with ASEAN's lead. In the end, Shen said, "China does not care about form; it wants substantive benefits." EAS Platform for Strategic Discussions -------------- ¶5. (C) Deputy Director He called the EAS a "strategic issue platform." CIIS scholar Shen agreed the East Asia Summit is BEIJING 00007299 002 OF 002 "a forum to discuss cooperation in East Asia," rather than an organization such as ASEAN. The larger EAS does not share the regional affinities of the smaller 10 plus 3, but, on the other hand, reflects a wider interest in the region from partners such as India. Shen also highlighted that the EAS contains more "democratic countries," which supports Japan's vision for the EAS. Deputy Director He reported that PM Wen participated in discussions on energy, environmental protection and climate change at the East Asia Summit (which includes the 10-plus-3 members and Australia, New Zealand and India). PM Wen also signed the "Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment." APEC still important -------------- ¶6. (C) Ministry of State Security-affiliated China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) Southeast Asia scholar Zhai Kun and Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS) scholar Jia Duqiang both told us that APEC plays a vital political and economic role in the region, if only because of U.S. membership in APEC. Professor Zhai said the APEC proposal for a Free Trade Agreement of the Asia-Pacific would cover all of the EAS aside from India. Therefore, China must pay attention to APEC, despite its discomfort with Taiwan's presence. Professor Jia said among the various regional architecture mechanisms, APEC could most effectively address issues such as climate change and energy efficiency. ¶7. (C) Professor Jia did not foresee any sudden changes to existing regional architecture. Jia said none of the current regional architecture mechanisms are completely effective, and there is "no clear picture of regional integration." He explained that the current focus on building regional economic ties reflects a lack of consensus on how to address political issues. Jia said the various regional groupings will continue for the foreseeable future because "conditions are not mature enough for one organization" to integrate the disparate conditions and interests of the nations in East Asia. Zhai said competing interests in the various groupings have reached a "balance of power." For example, Zhai said Japan believes China dominates the 10-plus-3 mechanism, and thus Japan favors the East Asia Summit, which includes fellow democracies India, Australia and New Zealand. China's leaders, Zhai said, believe all the mechanisms are complementary. Zhai admitted that the various regional groupings' member overlap leads to some redundancy, but, he said, "a comfortable feeling (among countries in the region) is more important that effectiveness." South China Sea channels work well -------------- ¶8. (C) Asked whether PM Wen discussed the South China Sea issue at the ASEAN Summit meetings, Deputy Director He downplayed any sense of conflict, stating that in addition to the 2002 "Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea," "we have proper bilateral channels" that work well to address South China Sea issues. Burma Discussions -------------- ¶9. (C) Deputy Director He offered no view on Singapore's invitation for Special Advisor on Burma Ibrahim Gambari to address the East Asia Summit and ASEAN's subsequent decision not to allow Gambari to address the forum. Deputy Director He said only that China "welcomes ASEAN's consensus" on the issue. Professor Zhai said ASEAN's failed efforts to address Burma will slow down ASEAN integration, a situation, he claimed, that will benefit the United States. However, Zhai said the United States would never be able to lead a successful effort to solve the situation in Burma. Therefore, the Burma situation will fall to China and India to resolve. RANDT