BEIJING UNIVERSITY SCHOLARS ENGAGE S/P DIRECTOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 007253 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2032 TAGS: PREL PHUM MARR MASS CH TW KS KN JA SUBJECT: BEIJING UNIVERSITY SCHOLARS ENGAGE S/P DIRECTOR GORDON ON TAIWAN, DEMOCRACY, ASIA POLICY, ALLIANCES Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Meeting with prominent Beijing scholars, Policy Planning Director David Gordon discussed U.S.-China strategic policy issues, Taiwan, democracy and U.S. alliances in Asia. His Chinese interlocutors questioned whether the United States views China as a threat and noted the contradictions between Washington's expectations of China as a "responsible stakeholder" and China's own international relationships and national interests. The Chinese professors argued that China should be considered a "kind of democracy" and criticized U.S. policy toward Taiwan's democracy as misinformed and U.S. policy on Taiwan arms sales as contrary to its efforts to build U.S-China relations. Bilateral U.S. alliances in Asia, one professor argued, are inherently exclusive and should be replaced by a multilateral framework that includes China. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Director of Policy Planning David Gordon, accompanied by James Green of the Policy Planning Staff, had a roundtable discussion at Beijing University November 14 with Dean of the Beijing University School of International Relations Wang Jisi and a group of senior Beijing-based Chinese academics, including Yuan Peng, the Director for North American Studies of the Ministry of State Security-affiliated Chinese Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR). Strategic Issues and Foreign Policy -------------- ¶3. (C) CICIR Director for American Studies Yuan Peng noted that for the "first time in history" the United States faces two major types of threat simultaneously. The first threat is terrorism, failed states and chaos; the second is a rising power, specifically China. He noted that countries defined by the United States as "rogue states," such as Iran, North Korea, Sudan, Burma and Pakistan, are not necessarily China's enemies. China wants to cooperate with the United States, but must decide how to balance China's interests and historical ties against its desire to "be responsible" according to the U.S. definition of the term. Director Gordon agreed that the threats of terrorism, extremism and proliferation are real and global. China and other emerging powers, however, are an opportunity for the United States, not a threat. ¶4. (C) Director Gordon added that Iran is a potential global threat because it aspires to revisionism. Other states Yuan Peng mentioned are "challenged states, which have weak institutions and bad governance, which together represent a syndrome highly correlated with social and political instability." As a global power, the United States has no choice but to respond when crises occur in areas of geo-strategic importance. China might find itself in a similar position in the future. He asked how China's sovereignty policy might evolve as China becomes a great power with international interests. ¶5. (C) Beijing University Dean of International Relations Wang Jisi said that for China to be a "responsible stakeholder," it must take the sovereignty issue seriously. Respect for sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of states will continue to be China's guiding principle, he said, but China must also see the world as a whole, rather than a collection of individual states. This global foreign policy is the basis of President Hu's "Harmonious World" concept. In certain cases, such as the current unrest in Pakistan, China must respond to internal events. China will not interfere, but will "consult and persuade" on how these states should govern themselves. Sovereignty is not an absolute concept, he said, and is open to reinterpretation. "Reinterpretation is something the Chinese are quite skilled at; look what we have done with Marxism-Leninism," he said. ¶6. (C) Beijing University professor Zhu Feng noted China's growing global confidence and, based on documents and speeches published in the United States, the U.S. "reconsideration" of China as a growing threat. In fact, Zhu said, China is not a global threat. Looking at the issue realistically, the best way for China to access the resources it needs to continue growing is to be a free rider on the existing global security system. Director Gordon agreed, noting that the free rider problem is the basis for the U.S. "responsible stakeholder" concept. Democracy and Taiwan -------------- ¶7. (C) Zhu Feng stated that the United States should "positively respond" to China's recently demonstrated "dynamic domestic political momentum." Chinese and U.S. political dynamics are different, he said, but Chinese politics should be recognized "as one species of democracy." Professor Yu Wanli made a similar point, noting that the Chinese Government does not like the term "democracy" but prefers to talk about "political development." ¶8. (C) Professor Liu Jianfei linked the issue of democracy to Taiwan. The United States has the wrong perspective on Taiwan's democracy; Chen Shui-bian does not govern "for, by or of the people." Liu said the Democratic People's Party (DPP) may use non-democratic methods to win the 2008 election in Taiwan; in that case, how would the United States respond? ¶9. (C) Director Gordon noted that while Taiwan's democracy has its flaws, it is nonetheless real and meaningful, and the elections in 2008 will be fundamentally democratic. He added that though the issue of democracy promotion will be debated in the U.S. political system, it will remain part of U.S. foreign policy. Professor Wang complained that "some Taiwan people" are taking advantage of Taiwan's democracy to advance goals that violate China's sovereignty principle. U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan exacerbate this problem, he averred. "It is important that pro-independence forces do not have any excuse to take advantage of differences, whether between the United States and China or between U.S. Government departments." The short, moderate Taiwan portion of President Hu Jintao's speech to the 17th Party Congress was "a kind of gesture to the United States" and an acknowledgement that U.S.-China relations have improved. Now, however, "we need some damage control measures" due to Chen's provocations. ¶10. (C) Zhu Feng, who also teaches at the Communist Party School, piled on. He said that U.S. policy is "difficult to explain" to the senior officials who are his students, noting that China understands that the United States needs China's cooperation in international issues, but that the United States "confuses" people with its weapons sales to Taiwan. "The United States helps China with its words, but Taiwan with its deeds," he said. Director Gordon noted that in the United States there is great sympathy for Taiwan as a democracy, and the United States maintains a one China policy. Any solution must be peaceful and non-coercive, he noted. Asia Policy and U.S. Alliances -------------- ¶11. (C) Professor Gui Yongtao asked if the United States intends to continue to anchor its East Asia policy on bilateral alliances, which from China's perspective are inherently exclusive. These alliances, he said, strengthen the U.S. position while hurting "others' interests." The most important ongoing process in Asia is the Six-Party Talks, he observed, which is not an alliance-based mechanism. He noted recent statements by Secretary of Defense Gates that even if the DPRK issue is resolved, the United States intends to continue missile defense cooperation with Japan. These statements "create mistrust and empower both right-wing and pro-Taiwan elements" in Japan. A multilateral organization would be preferable to an "imbalanced" bilateral alliance, he said. ¶12. (C) There is no contradiction between strengthening our bilateral alliances and deepening our multilateral engagement, Director Gordon responded. Likewise, there is no fundamental conflict between sustaining the bilateral alliances that are "crucial to our security" and creating a broader set of multilateral and bilateral relationships. James Green noted that bilateral U.S. alliances with Australia, the ROK and Japan are global in nature, and that Australian and Korean forces have fought with U.S. soldiers in many different conflicts. At this point, our bilateral alliances are not a replaceable element of our security infrastructure, he said. ¶13. (U) S/P staff cleared this message. RANDT